Jump to content

October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

12z GFS is utter garbage with the “pattern change”

Yeah looks like the first half of the month will be solidly dry. I’m betting the rain next weekend will be pushed into the following week. It’ll be alright though the firehose will turn on eventually...probably late this month. 

  • Like 1

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah looks like the first half of the month will be solidly dry. I’m betting the rain next weekend will be pushed into the following week. It’ll be alright though the firehose will turn on eventually...probably late this month. 

No ones looking for a “firehose” per we. Just a reasonably interesting fall pattern. 

Another several days of foggy mornings and yellow afternoon skies is going to get pretty stale.

  • Sun 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

No ones looking for a “firehose” per we. Just a reasonably interesting fall pattern. 

Another several days of foggy mornings and yellow afternoon skies is going to get pretty stale.

Boring fall's equal good winters. I have zero scientific proof to back me up.

  • Like 1
  • Snow 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Save it for February!

Pretty much our top producing month these days! I would take a February 2019 repeat! 

  • Downvote 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Due for a regionally good Dec-Jan. It's gotta happen again eventually. I have a good feeling it'll be this year.

  • Like 1
  • Popcorn 1
  • Downvote 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 06z GFS was very wet. 

 

  • Confused 1
  • Rain 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Pretty much our top producing month these days! I would take a February 2019 repeat! 

February has been a workhorse in recent years. I have no complaints. January owes us dearly. We are due for some serious cold in January. 1979 was the last time that Spokane set a record low in January.

  • Like 1
  • Snow 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Up to 70F and smoky.

  • Sad 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I need this fog to lift for my hot air balloon ride. It should burn soon tho....

Just about gone.   

  • Like 1
  • Rain 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ben Noll has interesting tweets, even though he forecasts for the Hudson Valley (and tweets from New Zealand).

A look at predicted global winter snowfall anomalies from the ECMWF+UKMET "superblend"
 

Image

He says the "superblend" performed pretty well last year.

Both the ECMWF and the UKMET show February as the most likely for Western WA/OR to get more snow and January to get less snow.   This forecast was from sometime in September, and he says he updates it once per month.

He also tweeted about the Canadian SIPS model, which I posted about yesterday:

New CanSIPS: a 25-30% chance for below average winter temps in the northern & eastern U.S.
 
Bar chart
In other words, average to above average temps are more likely.
 
Purple square
contour = areas where BELOW AVERAGE temps are the MOST LIKELY (>33.3%) outcome...
 
Up pointing backhand index

includes Ohio Valley, Northwest

Image

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hazy on flight simulator here too. They are pretty accurate with the weather on a large-scale.

  • Like 1
  • Storm 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Fog has cleared here except for directly over the water in a few spots. Up to 64...1 degree shy of yesterdays high so should be on track for upper 60s later this afternoon. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

How many acres do you have?

Our lot is 3 acres... but its at least 70% in its natural forested state.

  • Like 4

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Let's be clear. If this "pattern" change falls apart into nothing more of a whimper with clouds and some rain, it will be most definitely my fault for showing too much enthusiasm, a few too many, "C'MON!!!!'s" and yeah.

 

00z GFS in 5 hours 49 minutes

00z ECMWF in 7 hours 46 minutes

Think Clouds and RAIN! C'MON!!!!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Let's be clear. If this "pattern" change falls apart into nothing more of a whimper with clouds and some rain, it will be most definitely my fault for showing too much enthusiasm, a few too many, "C'MON!!!!'s" and yeah.

 

00z GFS in 5 hours 49 minutes

00z ECMWF in 7 hours 46 minutes

Think Clouds and RAIN! C'MON!!!!

Good details about the possible pattern change from the Spokane NWS AFD.  

Thursday there are some discrepancies...but models seem to be
coming in line with a transition to a cooler and most unsettled
pattern. Ensemble guidance is suggesting a trough moving into the
Pac NW sometime next weekend. This isn`t a slam dunk yet...as 30%
of the ensembles suggest the ridge holding on through next Friday,
and then for the weekend, 10% of the ensembles keep the ridge
going. While the majority of ensembles show the trough, there is
still a small chance of the ridge remaining. This is creating a
large range of temperature possibilities for next Friday and
beyond...59 to 78 degrees for Spokane
  • Popcorn 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nice day for a flight! 

89565DFA-38B9-4765-A876-44D8014763EA.jpeg

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, iFred said:

Any continued discussion about Flight Simulator will result in a ban.

Also please share specs of your machine, maybe even of your setup.

I didn’t mean that in a mean spirited way. It seems like there are a lot of enthusiasts for the game here so a thread would make sense.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...