Jesse Posted October 2, 2020 Report Share Posted October 2, 2020 12z GFS is garbage with the “pattern change” 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 2, 2020 Report Share Posted October 2, 2020 1 minute ago, Jesse said: 12z GFS is utter garbage with the “pattern change” Yeah looks like the first half of the month will be solidly dry. I’m betting the rain next weekend will be pushed into the following week. It’ll be alright though the firehose will turn on eventually...probably late this month. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 2, 2020 Report Share Posted October 2, 2020 GFS significantly drier this run 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 2, 2020 Report Share Posted October 2, 2020 Save it for February! 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 2, 2020 Report Share Posted October 2, 2020 1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said: Yeah looks like the first half of the month will be solidly dry. I’m betting the rain next weekend will be pushed into the following week. It’ll be alright though the firehose will turn on eventually...probably late this month. No ones looking for a “firehose” per we. Just a reasonably interesting fall pattern. Another several days of foggy mornings and yellow afternoon skies is going to get pretty stale. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 2, 2020 Report Share Posted October 2, 2020 1 minute ago, Jesse said: No ones looking for a “firehose” per we. Just a reasonably interesting fall pattern. Another several days of foggy mornings and yellow afternoon skies is going to get pretty stale. Boring fall's equal good winters. I have zero scientific proof to back me up. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 2, 2020 Report Share Posted October 2, 2020 20 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Save it for February! March-June 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 2, 2020 Report Share Posted October 2, 2020 21 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Save it for February! Pretty much our top producing month these days! I would take a February 2019 repeat! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 2, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 2, 2020 Due for a regionally good Dec-Jan. It's gotta happen again eventually. I have a good feeling it'll be this year. 1 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 2, 2020 Report Share Posted October 2, 2020 The 06z GFS was very wet. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 2, 2020 Report Share Posted October 2, 2020 37 minutes ago, MossMan said: Pretty much our top producing month these days! I would take a February 2019 repeat! February has been a workhorse in recent years. I have no complaints. January owes us dearly. We are due for some serious cold in January. 1979 was the last time that Spokane set a record low in January. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted October 2, 2020 Report Share Posted October 2, 2020 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: Beautiful sunny morning here. The smoke seems to be mostly gone... both aloft and at the surface. yeah same here, for now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted October 2, 2020 Report Share Posted October 2, 2020 Sky is much clearer and nicer today. All of the fog burned off 2 hours ago and now we have some nice bright sunshine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 2, 2020 Report Share Posted October 2, 2020 I should do a fancy signature for winter stats...I will get to that by MLK Day. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 2, 2020 Report Share Posted October 2, 2020 Fog has thinned a bit...but still pretty dense and 56 here. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 2, 2020 Report Share Posted October 2, 2020 70 and sunny here now. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 2, 2020 Report Share Posted October 2, 2020 Classic October scene... with fog hugging the Sound at mid-day. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 2, 2020 Report Share Posted October 2, 2020 I need this fog to lift for my hot air balloon ride. It should burn soon tho.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 2, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 2, 2020 Up to 70F and smoky. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 2, 2020 Report Share Posted October 2, 2020 4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: I need this fog to lift for my hot air balloon ride. It should burn soon tho.... Just about gone. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 2, 2020 Report Share Posted October 2, 2020 47 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: Sky is much clearer and nicer today. All of the fog burned off 2 hours ago and now we have some nice bright sunshine. Sky still looks pretty dirty up here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted October 2, 2020 Report Share Posted October 2, 2020 Ben Noll has interesting tweets, even though he forecasts for the Hudson Valley (and tweets from New Zealand). Ben Noll @BenNollWeather A look at predicted global winter snowfall anomalies from the ECMWF+UKMET "superblend" He says the "superblend" performed pretty well last year. Both the ECMWF and the UKMET show February as the most likely for Western WA/OR to get more snow and January to get less snow. This forecast was from sometime in September, and he says he updates it once per month. He also tweeted about the Canadian SIPS model, which I posted about yesterday: @BenNollWeather New CanSIPS: a 25-30% chance for below average winter temps in the northern & eastern U.S. In other words, average to above average temps are more likely. contour = areas where BELOW AVERAGE temps are the MOST LIKELY (>33.3%) outcome... includes Ohio Valley, Northwest Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 2, 2020 Report Share Posted October 2, 2020 24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Just about gone. Just like clock work. Sun is finally coming out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 2, 2020 Report Share Posted October 2, 2020 1 hour ago, MossMan said: I should do a fancy signature for winter stats...I will get to that by MLK Day. I DARE you to top Timmy Supersignature's. 1 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted October 2, 2020 Report Share Posted October 2, 2020 Fog on the Sound was dense! Cleared up here just about 45 minutes ago. 66* currently and also picked up .01 from the heavy drizzly fog earlier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 2, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 2, 2020 Hazy on flight simulator here too. They are pretty accurate with the weather on a large-scale. 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 2, 2020 Report Share Posted October 2, 2020 Fog has cleared here except for directly over the water in a few spots. Up to 64...1 degree shy of yesterdays high so should be on track for upper 60s later this afternoon. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 2, 2020 Report Share Posted October 2, 2020 34 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Hazy on flight simulator here too. They are pretty accurate with the weather on a large-scale. There should be a flight simulator thread. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted October 2, 2020 Report Share Posted October 2, 2020 23 minutes ago, Jesse said: There should be a flight simulator thread. His post was technically weather related....and PNW weather at that... 1 2 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 2, 2020 Report Share Posted October 2, 2020 Gross day here too... 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 2, 2020 Report Share Posted October 2, 2020 Just now, TT-SEA said: Gross day here too... How many acres do you have? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 2, 2020 Report Share Posted October 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: How many acres do you have? Our lot is 3 acres... but its at least 70% in its natural forested state. 4 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 2, 2020 Report Share Posted October 2, 2020 Let's be clear. If this "pattern" change falls apart into nothing more of a whimper with clouds and some rain, it will be most definitely my fault for showing too much enthusiasm, a few too many, "C'MON!!!!'s" and yeah. 00z GFS in 5 hours 49 minutes 00z ECMWF in 7 hours 46 minutes Think Clouds and RAIN! C'MON!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 2, 2020 Report Share Posted October 2, 2020 14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Our lot is 3 acres... but its at least 70% in its natural forested state. That is dope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted October 2, 2020 Report Share Posted October 2, 2020 23 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Let's be clear. If this "pattern" change falls apart into nothing more of a whimper with clouds and some rain, it will be most definitely my fault for showing too much enthusiasm, a few too many, "C'MON!!!!'s" and yeah. 00z GFS in 5 hours 49 minutes 00z ECMWF in 7 hours 46 minutes Think Clouds and RAIN! C'MON!!!! Good details about the possible pattern change from the Spokane NWS AFD. Thursday there are some discrepancies...but models seem to be coming in line with a transition to a cooler and most unsettled pattern. Ensemble guidance is suggesting a trough moving into the Pac NW sometime next weekend. This isn`t a slam dunk yet...as 30% of the ensembles suggest the ridge holding on through next Friday, and then for the weekend, 10% of the ensembles keep the ridge going. While the majority of ensembles show the trough, there is still a small chance of the ridge remaining. This is creating a large range of temperature possibilities for next Friday and beyond...59 to 78 degrees for Spokane 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted October 2, 2020 Report Share Posted October 2, 2020 Nice day for a flight! 2 1 Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 2, 2020 Report Share Posted October 2, 2020 1 minute ago, jakerepp said: Nice day for a flight! I would say so. What lake is that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted October 2, 2020 Report Share Posted October 2, 2020 4 minutes ago, jakerepp said: Nice day for a flight! Looks like Cle Elum Lake Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 2, 2020 Report Share Posted October 2, 2020 Just now, iFred said: Any continued discussion about Flight Simulator will result in a ban. Also please share specs of your machine, maybe even of your setup. I didn’t mean that in a mean spirited way. It seems like there are a lot of enthusiasts for the game here so a thread would make sense. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 2, 2020 Report Share Posted October 2, 2020 Warmer here today. Up to 78 with hazy conditions. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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