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October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Verdict so far.  We continue to roast!

Yeah, really not much point talking about the sun still when there's been just about zero meaningful cold anywhere on Earth this year. Evidence for relevance is slim right now. Seems like another hail mary GLAAM style variable.

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Pretty obvious solar is totally irrelevant.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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13 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Recent solar max/near max winters in the last century include 2013-14, 1988-89, 1979-80, 1978-79, 1968-69, 1946-47, and 1936-37.

Like a who's who of heavy hitters!

So maybe it is relevant in the opposite way Jim posits it. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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20 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, really not much point talking about the sun still when there's been just about zero meaningful cold anywhere on Earth this year. Evidence for relevance is slim right now. Seems like another hail mary GLAAM style variable.

DEN did see their coldest high on record for so early last month.

A forum for the end of the world.

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I'm liking where the ECMWF is trying to go toward mid month with the NE Pacific / GOA surface pressure setup.  That cutoff low way out there could easily throw up a nice GOA block.  Hopefully we can get some cold that will at least partially offset the recent warmth.

 

 

 

cold.png

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Has anyone figured out how to edit their sig since the software change?  No matter what I try I can't find the option to do that.  Same result with two different browsers.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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37 minutes ago, puyallupjon said:

Joe Bastardi always talks about how when the pattern flips it usually means wherever the big ride has been sitting it can be replaced by deep troughing.

 

Well, that would be right over our region.

When the pattern flips, watch out.

I suppose that is true.

At any rate, Joe Bastardi doesn't know what he's talking about (in general).

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41 minutes ago, luminen said:

I suppose that is true.

At any rate, Joe Bastardi doesn't know what he's talking about (in general).

I think he knows what he's talking about for the area of the country that he likes.

In general he doesn't spend a whole lot of time focusing on if/when an arctic blast might visit our area.

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4 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

They don't usually start to turn there until late October, right?

Usually the second week of the month.

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1 hour ago, puyallupjon said:

Joe Bastardi always talks about how when the pattern flips it usually means wherever the big ride has been sitting it can be replaced by deep troughing.

 

Well, that would be right over our region.

When the pattern flips, watch out.

I have always noticed that too.  A really extreme case was November 2010.  That year it was over 70 in early November and two or three weeks later it plunged to 8 here.

  • Snow 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I think it's safe to say the question of how big of a role solar activity plays in the big picture is going to come clear over the next few decades.  This solar min is proving to be incredible.  Almost a year since the official minimum and the sun is still dead.  Only 3 days of the past 45 have had any spots, and according to a number of metrics it's more dead now than it was a week ago.  We have needed a grand minimum to answer the question of effect of solar cycles on weather and we are now getting it.

The effect is state dependent, though. IE: It varies. So you have to know what it is you’re measuring first. 🤷‍♀️ 

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1 hour ago, Eujunga said:

Click on your user name at the top right of the screen, then click on "Account Settings" from the drop-down menu. A menu should appear on the left side of your screen. Click on "Signature."

To change your photo, click user name, then "Profile" and then the little icon underneath the photo itself. Took me ages to figure that one out.

Thanks!  Worked like a charm.  It was so different than the previous software it threw me off.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, really not much point talking about the sun still when there's been just about zero meaningful cold anywhere on Earth this year. Evidence for relevance is slim right now. Seems like another hail mary GLAAM style variable.

I wouldn’t go that far. We experienced the coldest upper level airmass ever recorded during the month of May (was colder than any airmass recorded in late April, too). Records back to WWII and reanalysis back to the late 1800s.

But generally, you’re correct in that extreme cold pools are infrequent when the IPWP is extended, regardless of solar. Knock on wood, but this winter should be more favorable for the production of mobile polar highs.

 

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

The effect is state dependent, though. IE: It varies. Do you have to know what it is you’re measuring first. 🤷‍♀️ 

I think global temperature average is a big one, but obviously it's way more complex than that.  I think anomalous ridging over the NE Pacific and NE Atlantic were also big factors during the Maunder / LIA.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So maybe it is relevant in the opposite way Jim posits it. 

For the umpteenth time, you have to sort by QBO and IPWP/ENSO state to derive the solar component. And the solar wind affects the system state(s) differently than UV/radiation fluxes.

It’s not at all straightforward.

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7 minutes ago, Phil said:

I wouldn’t go that far. We experienced the coldest upper level airmass ever recorded during the month of May (was colder than any airmass recorded in late April, too). Records back to WWII and reanalysis back to the late 1800s.

But generally, you’re correct in that extreme cold pools are infrequent when the IPWP is extended, regardless of solar. Knock on wood, but this winter should be more favorable for the production of mobile polar highs.

 

We'll soon see if the ocean heat release theory is the reason we've seen a delay in the onset of cold from this pair of solar mins or not.  The theory makes a lot of sense.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, puyallupjon said:

Something historic is coming for the end of the month.

 

A big chilly snap.

I can just feel it because we are due.

It's a lock.

We already had a bone dry October last year, that's sort of pushing our luck.

I am getting ready for the pineapple expresses and wind events!

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

For the umpteenth time, you have to sort by QBO and IPWP/ENSO state to derive the solar component. And the solar wind affects the system state(s) differently than UV/radiation fluxes.

It’s not at all straightforward.

I think that's why a lot of scientists are skeptical about the effect of solar cycles on the weather / climate.  The path is much more complex than less spots = less solar output = colder.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We'll soon if the if the ocean heat release theory is the reason we've seen a delay in the onset of cold from this pair of solar mins or not.  The theory makes a lot of sense.

Depends on the integral of heat flow and the part of the ocean you’re measuring.

For instance, the system actually loses heat during El Niño..net flow of heat is from the ocean *to* the atmosphere, hence the warmer atmospheric temperatures. Vice versa with La Niña (atmosphere to ocean).

There are longer term systemic modes associated with changes to heat flow/convection hence bulk emissivity as well (ENSO is a short term manifestation of this) and some of these may be triggered by prolonged changes to solar activity. But if/when this behavior arises isn’t always predictable.

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Never noticed you could see all this from the plane on a route I’ve done 30 times (BOI-SEA). 
Hood, Jefferson, The Sisters, and Bachelor 

(crappy pic)

CAB679EB-1937-41A7-8639-160E34E92605.jpeg

  • Sun 1

Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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Good grief. It looks like a painting from up here, but the anti-crepuscular rays are hard to see in the photo. Adams (with a small cap) and St Helens with smoke filling in the valleys + obligatory Rainier shot.
Wish I had my camera with me.

AB07F8B3-25CB-443C-B893-223E3E27421C.jpeg

83685393-1870-4363-B8F0-62DB66300FEF.jpeg

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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Just now, Acer said:

58 with a heavy annoying mist.  

Wow... cloud bases are high here with quite a few patches of blue sky and its been totally dry all day.

  • Sun 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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21 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Good grief. It looks like a painting from up here, but the anti-crepuscular rays are hard to see in the photo. Adams (with a small cap) and St Helens with smoke filling in the valleys + obligatory Rainier shot.
Wish I had my camera with me.

AB07F8B3-25CB-443C-B893-223E3E27421C.jpeg

83685393-1870-4363-B8F0-62DB66300FEF.jpeg

Enough with the Microsoft Flight Simulator updates!!

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A forum for the end of the world.

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1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

Surprising given your latitude and elevation.

Is it? I’m just under 40N.

Peak is usually around Halloween, but the greens usually start to fade right about now.

image.jpeg

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