BLI snowman Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Verdict so far. We continue to roast! Yeah, really not much point talking about the sun still when there's been just about zero meaningful cold anywhere on Earth this year. Evidence for relevance is slim right now. Seems like another hail mary GLAAM style variable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 Pretty obvious solar is totally irrelevant. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 12z Euro looks a little weaker with our pattern shakeup late next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Pretty obvious solar is totally irrelevant. Recent solar max/near max winters in the last century include 2013-14, 1988-89, 1979-80, 1978-79, 1968-69, 1946-47, and 1936-37. Like a who's who of heavy hitters! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weather_fan Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 Hope the weather pattern changes for next weekend hope to go to Glacier NP next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 13 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Recent solar max/near max winters in the last century include 2013-14, 1988-89, 1979-80, 1978-79, 1968-69, 1946-47, and 1936-37. Like a who's who of heavy hitters! So maybe it is relevant in the opposite way Jim posits it. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 20 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Yeah, really not much point talking about the sun still when there's been just about zero meaningful cold anywhere on Earth this year. Evidence for relevance is slim right now. Seems like another hail mary GLAAM style variable. DEN did see their coldest high on record for so early last month. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 21 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Pretty obvious solar is totally irrelevant. Yes, because last winter sucked. But what if this winter doesn't suck?? 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: DEN did see their coldest high on record for so early last month. Nice event. Still wound up being +2 on the average last month for Denver Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 12 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: DEN did see their coldest high on record for so early last month. Confirmation bias confirmed!!! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 3 hours ago, MossMan said: Cloudy with a wet deck. 54 degrees. .01” so far on the day, .02” for the month, 42.28” for the year. Cloudy and my deck is almost dry. 59, .02” today, .02” for Oct and 44.79” for the year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 Up to 0.08” today. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 I'm liking where the ECMWF is trying to go toward mid month with the NE Pacific / GOA surface pressure setup. That cutoff low way out there could easily throw up a nice GOA block. Hopefully we can get some cold that will at least partially offset the recent warmth. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 Has anyone figured out how to edit their sig since the software change? No matter what I try I can't find the option to do that. Same result with two different browsers. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 Something historic is coming for the end of the month. A big chilly snap. I can just feel it because we are due. It's a lock. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 I'm calling it right now. We will have frost on our pumpkins. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 Joe Bastardi always talks about how when the pattern flips it usually means wherever the big ride has been sitting it can be replaced by deep troughing. Well, that would be right over our region. When the pattern flips, watch out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, puyallupjon said: I'm calling it right now. We will have frost on our pumpkins. Frosty pumpkins, frozen turkeys and snow-buried civil rights leaders. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 37 minutes ago, puyallupjon said: Joe Bastardi always talks about how when the pattern flips it usually means wherever the big ride has been sitting it can be replaced by deep troughing. Well, that would be right over our region. When the pattern flips, watch out. I suppose that is true. At any rate, Joe Bastardi doesn't know what he's talking about (in general). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 41 minutes ago, luminen said: I suppose that is true. At any rate, Joe Bastardi doesn't know what he's talking about (in general). I think he knows what he's talking about for the area of the country that he likes. In general he doesn't spend a whole lot of time focusing on if/when an arctic blast might visit our area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 Does anyone know where I can find this new model that is supposed to go out more than 15 days? The one that will show arctic blasts that don't materialize all winter. I thought someone mentioned on here that the new model went out like 30 days or something like that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 4 hours ago, Front Ranger said: They don't usually start to turn there until late October, right? Usually the second week of the month. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 1 hour ago, puyallupjon said: Joe Bastardi always talks about how when the pattern flips it usually means wherever the big ride has been sitting it can be replaced by deep troughing. Well, that would be right over our region. When the pattern flips, watch out. I have always noticed that too. A really extreme case was November 2010. That year it was over 70 in early November and two or three weeks later it plunged to 8 here. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 3 hours ago, snow_wizard said: I think it's safe to say the question of how big of a role solar activity plays in the big picture is going to come clear over the next few decades. This solar min is proving to be incredible. Almost a year since the official minimum and the sun is still dead. Only 3 days of the past 45 have had any spots, and according to a number of metrics it's more dead now than it was a week ago. We have needed a grand minimum to answer the question of effect of solar cycles on weather and we are now getting it. The effect is state dependent, though. IE: It varies. So you have to know what it is you’re measuring first. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 1 hour ago, Eujunga said: Click on your user name at the top right of the screen, then click on "Account Settings" from the drop-down menu. A menu should appear on the left side of your screen. Click on "Signature." To change your photo, click user name, then "Profile" and then the little icon underneath the photo itself. Took me ages to figure that one out. Thanks! Worked like a charm. It was so different than the previous software it threw me off. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 2 hours ago, BLI snowman said: Yeah, really not much point talking about the sun still when there's been just about zero meaningful cold anywhere on Earth this year. Evidence for relevance is slim right now. Seems like another hail mary GLAAM style variable. I wouldn’t go that far. We experienced the coldest upper level airmass ever recorded during the month of May (was colder than any airmass recorded in late April, too). Records back to WWII and reanalysis back to the late 1800s. But generally, you’re correct in that extreme cold pools are infrequent when the IPWP is extended, regardless of solar. Knock on wood, but this winter should be more favorable for the production of mobile polar highs. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, Phil said: The effect is state dependent, though. IE: It varies. Do you have to know what it is you’re measuring first. I think global temperature average is a big one, but obviously it's way more complex than that. I think anomalous ridging over the NE Pacific and NE Atlantic were also big factors during the Maunder / LIA. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: So maybe it is relevant in the opposite way Jim posits it. For the umpteenth time, you have to sort by QBO and IPWP/ENSO state to derive the solar component. And the solar wind affects the system state(s) differently than UV/radiation fluxes. It’s not at all straightforward. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 7 minutes ago, Phil said: I wouldn’t go that far. We experienced the coldest upper level airmass ever recorded during the month of May (was colder than any airmass recorded in late April, too). Records back to WWII and reanalysis back to the late 1800s. But generally, you’re correct in that extreme cold pools are infrequent when the IPWP is extended, regardless of solar. Knock on wood, but this winter should be more favorable for the production of mobile polar highs. We'll soon see if the ocean heat release theory is the reason we've seen a delay in the onset of cold from this pair of solar mins or not. The theory makes a lot of sense. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 1 hour ago, puyallupjon said: Something historic is coming for the end of the month. A big chilly snap. I can just feel it because we are due. It's a lock. We already had a bone dry October last year, that's sort of pushing our luck. I am getting ready for the pineapple expresses and wind events! 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Phil said: For the umpteenth time, you have to sort by QBO and IPWP/ENSO state to derive the solar component. And the solar wind affects the system state(s) differently than UV/radiation fluxes. It’s not at all straightforward. I think that's why a lot of scientists are skeptical about the effect of solar cycles on the weather / climate. The path is much more complex than less spots = less solar output = colder. 2 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: We'll soon if the if the ocean heat release theory is the reason we've seen a delay in the onset of cold from this pair of solar mins or not. The theory makes a lot of sense. Depends on the integral of heat flow and the part of the ocean you’re measuring. For instance, the system actually loses heat during El Niño..net flow of heat is from the ocean *to* the atmosphere, hence the warmer atmospheric temperatures. Vice versa with La Niña (atmosphere to ocean). There are longer term systemic modes associated with changes to heat flow/convection hence bulk emissivity as well (ENSO is a short term manifestation of this) and some of these may be triggered by prolonged changes to solar activity. But if/when this behavior arises isn’t always predictable. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 Never noticed you could see all this from the plane on a route I’ve done 30 times (BOI-SEA). Hood, Jefferson, The Sisters, and Bachelor (crappy pic) 1 Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 Good grief. It looks like a painting from up here, but the anti-crepuscular rays are hard to see in the photo. Adams (with a small cap) and St Helens with smoke filling in the valleys + obligatory Rainier shot. Wish I had my camera with me. 3 Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 48 minutes ago, Phil said: Usually the second week of the month. Surprising given your latitude and elevation. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 58 with a heavy annoying mist. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 Just now, Acer said: 58 with a heavy annoying mist. Wow... cloud bases are high here with quite a few patches of blue sky and its been totally dry all day. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 21 minutes ago, jakerepp said: Good grief. It looks like a painting from up here, but the anti-crepuscular rays are hard to see in the photo. Adams (with a small cap) and St Helens with smoke filling in the valleys + obligatory Rainier shot. Wish I had my camera with me. Enough with the Microsoft Flight Simulator updates!! 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 18z GFS is better than 12z GFS but still builds a ridge and forces the jet back into BC at about day 8-9. Doesn't completely screw CA and southern OR this time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 1 hour ago, Front Ranger said: Surprising given your latitude and elevation. Is it? I’m just under 40N. Peak is usually around Halloween, but the greens usually start to fade right about now. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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