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October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I hope this very blocky regime lasts all winter.    Short bursts of heavy rain and long dry periods with sun and northerly or offshore flow.  

ecmwf_z500a_namer_10 (2).png

Looks like some first frost possibilities in NE Oklahoma while I am there too. 

  • Excited 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The Weatherbell maps spit out highs low to mid 50s next weekend for SEA and widespread lows below 40 for the lowlands Saturday and Sunday nights.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The Weatherbell maps spit out highs low to mid 50s next weekend for SEA and widespread lows below 40 for the lowlands Saturday and Sunday nights.

If this is wrong prepared for it to be pointed out A LOT.

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I hope this very blocky regime lasts all winter.    Short bursts of heavy rain and long dry periods with sun and northerly or offshore flow.  

ecmwf_z500a_namer_10 (2).png

I'm hoping for a 1936-37 type winter.  Prolonged cold, snow on the ground for weeks, but dry.  That winter was amazing in that it had so much cold, but none of the nastiness that is normally associated with winters like that such as floods, ice storms, and prolonged periods of miserable weather.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The Weatherbell maps spit out highs low to mid 50s next weekend for SEA and widespread lows below 40 for the lowlands Saturday and Sunday nights.

Glad to see you using ECMWF surface details rather than the goofy WRF.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

If this is wrong prepared for it to be pointed out A LOT.

I looked at the actual highs and lows as opposed to just 12z and 0z temps.  I've made that mistake before!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Glad to see you using ECMWF surface details rather than the goofy WRF.    

I still use the WRF sometimes, but those weatherbell maps are very nice.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I still use the WRF sometimes, but those weatherbell maps are very nice.

Definitely... you will not be misled nearly as often if you go with the ECMWF surface details from the WB maps.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, Link said:

At this time of the year are we talking about ground frosts or severe air frost with air temp appropriate for such conditions?  Also would this translate to hoar frost?  Do we even get hoar frost here or does that require a special setup?

You serious, Clark?

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

You serious, Clark?

Serious about what? What kind of frost are we likely to get out of the pattern depicted for next week? Just a slight ground/roof frost or a full heavy one where it can look like light 'fake' snow the ground?  My favorite is the latter but I'll accept the former.

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1 minute ago, Link said:

Serious about what? What kind of frost are we likely to get out of the pattern depicted for next week? Just a slight ground frost or a full heavy one where it can look like light 'fake' snow the ground?

Sounds like someone hasn’t played all the way through Frost Simulator on difficult yet.

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19 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm hoping for a 1936-37 type winter.  Prolonged cold, snow on the ground for weeks, but dry.  That winter was amazing in that it had so much cold, but none of the nastiness that is normally associated with winters like that such as floods, ice storms, and prolonged periods of miserable weather.

You mean all the exciting stuff 😏 

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Just now, Jesse said:

Sounds like someone hasn’t played all the way through Frost Simulator on difficult yet.

Look. I just want to know how severe of a frost we are talking about for next week. Is it the bring your plants in and we're done kind or just a slight ground frost? Would it even be enough to create a layer on the ground?  I never experienced a 'chilly' October except 2003 and it was too 'dry' for any actual  frost.

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2 minutes ago, Link said:

Look. I just want to know how severe of a frost we are talking about for next week. Is it the bring your plants in and we're done kind or just a slight ground frost? Would it even be enough to create a layer on the ground?  I never experienced a 'chilly' October except 2003 and it was too 'dry' for any actual  frost.

You lived here last year right? 

The models are just now latching onto this thing, so any bets on the details of a frost, if any, would be mere speculation. At face value it would probably be a light frost at best, depending on your location.

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Just now, Jesse said:

You lived here last year right?

The models are just now latching onto this thing, so any bets on the details of a frost, if any, would be mere speculation. At face value it would probably be a light frost at best, depending on your location.

Central Valley. We get cold air drainage at the right times. Already got to 39F before the fire crap happened and we went to this pattern.  How early can we have a hard white frost?  Also does an Artic Airmass provide that 'white' look or are the dew points too low because the December 2010 cold wave the grass remained green the entire time.  Unless you stepped outside there wasn't any way to know we were under a sharp cold spell.

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35 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I hope this very blocky regime lasts all winter.    Short bursts of heavy rain and long dry periods with sun and northerly or offshore flow.  

ecmwf_z500a_namer_10 (2).png

Well, -EPO/Rockies trough/SE-ridge is typical +QBO/east-based Niña stuff. So you might be in luck on that front.

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1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Most of California got pretty kold in the winter of 1936-37.

Did the central valley get any 'snow' flurries out of it? Before the turn of the century San Francisco used to semi frequently  get snow flurries and even sticking snow in the higher hills like Telegraph Hill.https://thestormking.com/Sierra_Stories/San_Francisco_Snowstorms/san_francisco_snowstorms.html#:~:text=San Francisco's all-time record,snow was 7 inches deep.

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1 minute ago, Link said:

Willamette Valley.  Though Stockton can get pretty chilly too.  Look at the summer of 1955!  A lot of chilly nights thru the summer and never any real sustained hot spells.

If you hit 39 in early September you could probably see some decent frost, assuming the pattern the models are currently showing even pans out.

Last October had a ton of frost and freezes just about everywhere so it’s not like it’s been awhile since we’ve seen this sort of thing.

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10 minutes ago, Jesse said:

You mean all the exciting stuff 😏 

Floods in the dead of winter usually mean it’s torching..hard for me to derive excitement from that, but to each their own. 🤷‍♂️ 

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

If you hit 39 in early September you could probably see some decent frost, assuming the pattern the models are currently showing even pans out.

Last October had a ton of frost and freezes just about everywhere so it’s not like it’s been awhile since we’ve seen this sort of thing.

That's the year we recently had a lot of frosty roofs! It seemed to me there was a recent year we had a lot of white frost on roofs more then usual.  It seemed it wouldn't end.  It was very weird waking up to everything being white even though it was NOT snow.

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18 minutes ago, Link said:

At this time of the year are we talking about ground frosts or severe air frost with air temp appropriate for such conditions?  Also would this translate to hoar frost?  Do we even get hoar frost here or does that require a special setup?

I think hoar frost is what you get when the ground and other surfaces cool to below freezing with radiational cooling on a clear night.  Sometimes it begins as dew and then freezes later or can begin as frost early in the evening in colder situations.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think hoar frost is what you get when the ground and other surfaces cool to below freezing with radiational cooling on a clear night.  Sometimes it begins as dew and then freezes later or can begin as frost early in the evening in colder situations.

Any way to see on models the kind of conditions that permit that?  Did I say something against the forum rules? 🤔

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12 minutes ago, Jesse said:

You mean all the exciting stuff 😏 

To me cold and snow is what it's all about.  

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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18 minutes ago, Link said:

Serious about what? What kind of frost are we likely to get out of the pattern depicted for next week? Just a slight ground/roof frost or a full heavy one where it can look like light 'fake' snow the ground?  My favorite is the latter but I'll accept the former.

Chances of a hard freeze here in the valleys are quite low.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 minutes ago, Link said:

Any way to see on models the kind of conditions that permit that?  Did I say something against the forum rules? 🤔

Generally if it's a clear night November through March with freezing levels above the surface you are going to see radiational cooling induced hoar frost.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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16 minutes ago, Link said:

Any way to see on models the kind of conditions that permit that?  Did I say something against the forum rules? 🤔

Asking rapid fire questions that are almost impossible to answer, and when someone does try in good faith to give you one you just ignore it and move onto another impossible question isn’t really good form IMO.

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS is colder than the 00Z run for next weekend and early the following week.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-3238400.png

This thing is looking like it has a real chance of happening.  Next weekend should be delightfully crisp if this pans out.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, Jesse said:

A lot of our great winters had a nice mix of stormy and cold.

I figured cold winters would have less flooding and snowmelt out there?

Blowtorching/warm air advection is a staple in all winter floods I’ve experienced.

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3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Then you will almost never fully enjoy a winter in this climate. Especially in the modern era. Best to just embrace the other stuff.

I do in general.  Just saying a 1936-37 type winter would be something to see.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, Phil said:

I figured cold winters would have less flooding and snowmelt out there?

Blowtorching/warm air advection is a staple in all winter floods I’ve experienced.

Some of our biggest floods in history have occurred in conjunction with or immediately following cold periods. 1964, 1996 etc.

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