October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

I figured cold winters would have less flooding and snowmelt out there?

Blowtorching/warm air advection is a staple in all winter floods I’ve experienced.

It is pretty common for our big cold waves to have a major warm firehose just before or just after them.

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS is colder than the 00Z run for next weekend and early the following week.

 

Niña gradually taking hold.

[Jesse]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I do in general.  Just saying a 1936-37 type winter would be something to see.

I agree.

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Some of our biggest floods in history have occurred in conjunction with or immediately following cold periods. 1964, 1996 etc.

Interesting. In that case, I’d be cool with it. Just means to an end.

Relationship is 100% inverted here. Winter rainstorms require lots of WAA. 

[snow_wizard]

27 minutes ago, Jesse said:

 

Looks like the entire ECMWF suite of models trended colder for next weekend.  Operational, EPS mean, and EPS control model.  To me the amazing thing is how extreme the blocking is depicted to be so early in the season.

[Timmy Supercell]

When was the last rain down here?

I enjoy what little grey and showery weather I get before the snow kicks in. It took me years to realize how unusually wet 2016/2014 rains were and how unlikely those are to repeat here.

https://imgur.com/a/zDsegO9

Could get a little more rain this afternoon. Maybe somewhere between 0.10 - 0.20" by the end of the day if some isolated cores come through downtown.

[Deweydog]

Just now, Phil said:

Interesting. In that case, I’d be cool with it. Means to an end.

Relationship is 100% inverted here. Winter rainstorms require lots of WAA. 

The same is the case here.  It just happens that there’s a fair amount of precedence for long fetch, tropically-tapped jets arriving after a strong -PNA block.  Hasn’t happened in quite a while though...

[Jesse]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

The same is the case here.  It just happens that there’s a fair amount of precedence for long fetch, tropically-tapped jets arriving after a strong -PNA block.  Hasn’t happened in quite a while though...

January 2004 was one of the last textbook examples.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Mild and rainy is our default winter pattern. As such, even in a distinctly snowier than normal winter, there will typically be no shortage of mild, rainy conditions. When a cold and snowy spell ends and is replaced with a mild and rainy one, flooding is a common result.

[Phil]

Nice to see that high latitude blocking establish so potently. No indication of that supermassive black hole over Baffin Island either, which has produced so many torch patterns over the last 7-8 years.

[Timmy Supercell]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Mild and rainy is our default winter pattern. As such, even in a distinctly snowier than normal winter, there will typically be no shortage of mild, rainy conditions. When a cold and snowy spell ends and is replaced with a mild and rainy one, flooding is a common result.

2010-2011 season the snow levels kept going up and down every couple weeks or so. I remember some heavy rains in December '10 and February '11, of course that would change to really decent snowstorms not long afterwards. So because of that, 12+ inch depths are not very common in this town.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

January 2004 was one of the last textbook examples.

Early December 2007 as well.  Since then it’s been pretty much zilch.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I’m not going to wet myself over some frost. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Those old school winters are not possible in our current climate.

[Timmy Supercell]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Those old school winters are not possible in our current climate.

Yeah '55-'56 is probably impossible here.

I could probably see something like '92-'93 or a similar one like it.

[Jesse]

Sounds like someone just got a look at Trump’s latest poll numbers

[Dave]

30 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

To me cold and snow is what it's all about.  

Exactly. This is why I fail to understand the want for chilly anomalies this time of year. For what? A few crisp days and a bit of frost? We'll have plenty of that in a month or two. Actual cold just won't happen this early. A crispy day here and there in October is nice, but the novelty wears off after a day or two. In short, bring on the warm anomalies this time of year. I'm all for the cold when something meaningful could actually happen. October is a dud month, though, but for an occasional wind event.

Obviously, everyone has their own preferences, puzzling as they may be to me.

[Jesse]

6 minutes ago, dolt said:

Exactly. This is why I fail to understand the want for chilly anomalies this time of year. For what? A few crisp days and a bit of frost? We'll have plenty of that in a month or two. Actual cold just won't happen this early. A crispy day here and there in October is nice, but the novelty wears off after a day or two. In short, bring on the warm anomalies this time of year. I'm all for the cold when something meaningful could actually happen. October is a dud month, though, but for an occasional wind event.

Obviously, everyone has their own preferences, puzzling as they may be to me.

Crispy and chilly (or active) October weather is really enjoyable to me at least. It is easily my favorite month too, because there is generally so much change from the beginning to end. This has no bearing on how I feel about the winter, it’s a total face value thing.

Of course, like you said, it’s all preferences.

[jakerepp]

Nice loud clap of thunder!

And a nice convergence zone. 

[snow_wizard]

22 minutes ago, Phil said:

Nice to see that high latitude blocking establish so potently. No indication of that supermassive black hole over Baffin Island either, which has produced so many torch patterns over the last 7-8 years.

Maybe this incredible solar min is finally really effecting the patterns.  Might be some fun times coming.

[Dave]

4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Crispy and chilly (or active) October weather is really enjoyable to me at least. It is easily my favorite month too, because there is generally so much change from the beginning to end. This has no bearing on how I feel about the winter, it’s a total face value thing.

Of course, like you said, it’s all preferences.

Crispy and chilly is fine to me as well. This year being excepted, cool and rainy Octobers are pretty blah. (We could still use the rain this year). I see that you've been out hiking in some pretty sweet locations in some pretty sweet/benign weather. That is quality October weather to me. 

[snow_wizard]

19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Those old school winters are not possible in our current climate.

There is really no evidence to support that.  All it takes is the proper 500mb configuration.

[Phil]

Joe Bastardi is correct on this one. Seasonal models have become increasing warm-biased over the last decade. Almost to the point of uselessness.

 

[Jesse]

4 minutes ago, dolt said:

Crispy and chilly is fine to me as well. This year being excepted, cool and rainy Octobers are pretty blah. (We could still use the rain this year). I see that you've been out hiking in some pretty sweet locations in some pretty sweet/benign weather. That is quality October weather to me. 

Yeah. I usually try to get outdoors regardless of the weather. Would have been doing those warm anomalies or cold anomalies aside. Just wear more layers if it’s colder.

[TT-SEA]

Partly cloudy and a little breezy and dry here... 58 degrees.    Not a bad October afternoon.   

[snow_wizard]

Just now, dolt said:

Crispy and chilly is fine to me as well. This year being excepted, cool and rainy Octobers are pretty blah. (We could still use the rain this year). I see that you've been out hiking in some pretty sweet locations in some pretty sweet/benign weather. That is quality October weather to me. 

To me nothing beats a sunny October day with a nice snap in the air.  Like Jesse I really like October because of the huge seasonal change that happens.  It can be a month of great variety.

[Omegaraptor]

43 minutes ago, Link said:

Did the central valley get any 'snow' flurries out of it? Before the turn of the century San Francisco used to semi frequently  get snow flurries and even sticking snow in the higher hills like Telegraph Hill.https://thestormking.com/Sierra_Stories/San_Francisco_Snowstorms/san_francisco_snowstorms.html#:~:text=San Francisco's all-time record,snow was 7 inches deep.

Sacramento Valley, Jan 1937:

Redding - snowfall probably 15-20”, monthly avg 39.9/28.3

Red Bluff - 15”, avg 43.0/27.9

Willows - 17”, monthly avg 44.8/28.0

Chico got to 12°F, monthly avg 43.8/28.2

Sacramento saw snow on four separate days but with little or no accumulation, monthly average 45.9/31.5

[Timmy Supercell]

I'd prefer 65 degree rain.

But like Biden would say - I am one strange dude.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Joe Bastardi is correct on this one. Seasonal models have become increasing warm-biased over the last decade. Almost to the point of uselessness.

 

Wow!  That is a terrible bust.  Makes you wonder if the "rules" have changed recently.  Obviously there is some X factor(s) throwing it off.

[FroYoBro]

Heavy downpour here lasted 6.46 minutes. 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Sacramento Valley, Jan 1937:

Redding - snowfall probably 15-20”, monthly avg 39.9/28.3

Red Bluff - 15”, avg 43.0/27.9

Willows - 17”, monthly avg 44.8/28.0

Chico got to 12°F, monthly avg 43.8/28.2

Sacramento saw snow on four separate days but with little or no accumulation, monthly average 45.9/31.5

It's also noteworthy that Las Vegas had it biggest snowstorm ever in January 1937.  Something like 18 or 20 inches.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Joe Bastardi is correct on this one. Seasonal models have become increasing warm-biased over the last decade. Almost to the point of uselessness.

 

I’m sorry, I don’t see his point. Sure, the forecast from a month out stank. So what? Forecast accuracy does stink that far out. This is not exactly news. As my tagline says….

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's also noteworthy that Las Vegas had it biggest snowstorm ever in January 1937.  Something like 18 or 20 inches.

Try 3.0 inches in 1937 (which is not the record, BTW).

https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/NV/Las-Vegas/extreme-annual-las-vegas-snowfall.php

[Dave]

8 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Yeah. I usually try to get outdoors regardless of the weather. Would have been doing those warm anomalies or cold anomalies aside. Just wear more layers if it’s colder.

I've been heading outdoors much more lately, and I agree that I will try to get out regardless of the conditions. Muddy trails suck though, but are pretty much inevitable for the next several months. Snowy trails are pure bliss.

[Jesse]

1 minute ago, dolt said:

I've been heading outdoors much more lately, and I agree that I will try to get out regardless of the conditions. Muddy trails suck though, but are pretty much inevitable for the next several months. Snowy trails are pure bliss.

All about having the right gear for the occasion.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

All about having the right gear for the occasion.

I like hiking along fire and logging roads during the rainy season. They are typically graveled and well-drained, yet closed to most vehicles.

[Blizzard777]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

Optical illusions are fun.

For crying out loud...now the fella is just dancing fast no matter what! Fred playing with us behind the controls! 

[bainbridgekid]

Lots of thunder here in Everett from that CZ along the King/Snohomish line.

[snow_wizard]

14 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Try 3.0 inches in 1937 (which is not the record, BTW).

https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/NV/Las-Vegas/extreme-annual-las-vegas-snowfall.php

I could have sworn I was right about this, but I can't find the book that I saw it in.  It appears you are correct.  Maybe it was a cold temperature record I'm thinking of.

[seattleweatherguy]

couple rumbles of thunder here and one good dump of rain so far