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October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Bucked off already? Better luck next time, cowboy.

The cowboy seems a little condescending.  Can't we be respectful to each other on here?

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The cowboy seems a little condescending.

I just don’t see why so many people get so excited when a few runs of some models show something interesting happening a week or more out. Model accuracy at that time range is known to be lacking, to the point that such excitement leads to disappointment more often than it bears fruit. I only get excited if the story stays the same as the time frame gets under a week (and ideally, under three days). Just been let down too many times in the past. To each his (or her) own, I guess.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It appears 1942 and 1988 are the closest analogs to this year as far as strong first year Nina with a warm October.  Both got epic later on.  I'm pretty disappointed with this month though.  I guess there is still time for something good late in the month.

Also 2010/11 to an extent.

You’ve got a solid winter incoming, Jim. It doesn’t snow in October anyway..no opportunities available to be squandered yet. 🙂

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9 hours ago, Phil said:

La Niña looks really legit now.

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

Can't wait until it does something for us.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I just don’t see why so many people get so excited when a few runs of some models show something interesting happening a week or more out. Model accuracy at that time range is known to be lacking, to the point that such excitement leads to disappointment more often than it bears fruit. I only get excited if the story stays the same as the time frame gets under a week (and ideally, under three days). Just been let down too many times in the past. To each his (or her) own, I guess.

Fair enough.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

For it being 10/11 things are already getting tense around here...Going to be a fun winter!! 

This incessant return to death ridges is getting a bit old.  On a positive note I think there could be quite a flip side to this later.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Ended up with a 62/52 spread yesterday. Morning rain and afternoon showers/sunbreaks.

Cloudy and another extremely mild morning with a low of 52 here. At least we are starting to catch up on rainfall.

It managed to drop to 48 here which isn't horrible for being cloudy I guess.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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9 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Might be some of the earliest Jim-counseling on record.  Has to be a good/bad sign!

I'm just mildly disappointed.  Almost any year beats the early autumn we have had this year for interesting / cool weather.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

I'm just mildly disappointed.  Almost any year beats the early autumn we have had this year for interesting / cool weather.

Definitely a slow starter, but definitely not a surprise given the current state of our climate and what is a developing cold ENSO event.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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At least the 12z GFS ensemble wasn't as terrible as the 6z.  There were some cold members.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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As I’ve said before, I expect a typical strong La Niña winter. To wit, cooler and stormier than normal, but not an epic year for lowland snow. More a normal year for lowland snow. Strong La Niña winters tend to have just too much persistent onshore flow to reliably get the sort of arctic, continental outflow we need for epic amounts of lowland snow.

Note that even in a normal year, pretty much all lowland locations (aside from the immediate coast) see some snow, so I do not expect a bust year with little or no lowland snow. In the mountains, snow levels will be at persistently lower than normal elevations, so coupled with the plentiful storms skiers should be very happy this winter.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

As I’ve said before, I expect a typical strong La Niña winter. To wit, cooler and stormier than normal, but not an epic year for lowland snow. More a normal year for lowland snow. Strong La Niña winters tend to have just too much persistent onshore flow to reliably get the sort of arctic, continental outflow we need for epic amounts of lowland snow.

Note that even in a normal year, pretty much all lowland locations (aside from the immediate coast) see some snow, so I do not expect a bust year with little or no lowland snow. In the mountains, snow levels will be at persistently lower than normal elevations, so coupled with the plentiful storms skiers should be very happy this winter.

If you do not know this about me, you will learn. I am cold onshore flow's #1 fan.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

As I’ve said before, I expect a typical strong La Niña winter. To wit, cooler and stormier than normal, but not an epic year for lowland snow. More a normal year for lowland snow. Strong La Niña winters tend to have just too much persistent onshore flow to reliably get the sort of arctic, continental outflow we need for epic amounts of lowland snow.

Note that even in a normal year, pretty much all lowland locations (aside from the immediate coast) see some snow, so I do not expect a bust year with little or no lowland snow. In the mountains, snow levels will be at persistently lower than normal elevations, so coupled with the plentiful storms skiers should be very happy this winter.

Think I already saw this in the BC forum.

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If you do not know this about me, you will learn. I am cold onshore flow's #1 fan.

Your home is at enough elevation to really capitalize on the snowfall in such situations. I expect you will indeed see a lot of the white stuff.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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9 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

As I’ve said before, I expect a typical strong La Niña winter. To wit, cooler and stormier than normal, but not an epic year for lowland snow. More a normal year for lowland snow. Strong La Niña winters tend to have just too much persistent onshore flow to reliably get the sort of arctic, continental outflow we need for epic amounts of lowland snow.

Note that even in a normal year, pretty much all lowland locations (aside from the immediate coast) see some snow, so I do not expect a bust year with little or no lowland snow. In the mountains, snow levels will be at persistently lower than normal elevations, so coupled with the plentiful storms skiers should be very happy this winter.

This isn’t really accurate, though.

2010/11, 1988/89, 1955/56, 1949/50, etc, were all strong niñas, with lots of lowland cold/snow. Some are also zonal..1974/75, 2007/08, etc.

The reason why some strong niñas are zonal and others are meridional/blocky is due to a variety of factors..many of which are external or peripheral to the ENSO system.

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6 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

If I don’t get a real snow event this winter, let’s just say my consideration of Montana State is going to go up significantly.

As they are fond of saying in the BC forums, if you don't like the weather patterns where you live: MOVE.

Seriously, though, I think your location has a very good shot of seeing three or four inches on the ground at some point this winter. Such amounts really aren’t that unusual in your area. A few dustings and one dump of several inches is completely in line with climactic norms.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I read that this morning. Good read 📚 

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7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

As they are fond of saying in the BC forums, if you don't like the weather patterns where you live: MOVE.

Seriously, though, I think your location has a very good shot of seeing three or four inches on the ground at some point this winter. Such amounts really aren’t that unusual in your area. A few dustings and one dump of several inches is completely in line with climactic norms.

What are you seeing for me???

Please include dates, dew point spread and (approximate) flake size.  Thanks in advance!

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Moist day.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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17 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

What are you seeing for me???

Please include dates, dew point spread and (approximate) flake size.  Thanks in advance!

Snow levels will remain 20’ above your location...All winter. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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52 with light rain here. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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56 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

As I’ve said before, I expect a typical strong La Niña winter. To wit, cooler and stormier than normal, but not an epic year for lowland snow. More a normal year for lowland snow. Strong La Niña winters tend to have just too much persistent onshore flow to reliably get the sort of arctic, continental outflow we need for epic amounts of lowland snow.

Note that even in a normal year, pretty much all lowland locations (aside from the immediate coast) see some snow, so I do not expect a bust year with little or no lowland snow. In the mountains, snow levels will be at persistently lower than normal elevations, so coupled with the plentiful storms skiers should be very happy this winter.

Actually strong first year Ninas have a tendency to have at least one major Arctic blast.  1942, 1949, 1988, 1998, and 2010 are all examples.  It seems that positive QBO also increases the odds for major blocking in this context.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The ECMWF has a different solution yet where the NC / NE Pacific cutoff low is much weaker and leads to another chance after the one we've been watching.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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