The Swamp Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 There will be plenty of GOA blocking this winter. The end of this month is going to be down right frigid with frost on my pumpkins. November is going to be super duper wet. The rest of the winter is going to be drier and cooler than normal. Two big wind storms are in bound. Two good snow makers - one for Oregon, one for Washington. Lots of fog. There's also going to be lots of fog. Oh, and one major flooding event that FOLLOWS a major lowland snow dump. Somewhere during the frigid cold snow dump Tim will be pointing out how it will be in the mid 40's and raining in no time at all. It's a lock. 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 I don’t know if it was mentioned, but the 2019-2020 water year at SLE ended up their 8th driest on record. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Yeah...who would have thought they would have a near historic cold October in the East. Just the way it goes sometimes. Historic? Lol. More like seasonably chilly at best. What *was* historic was the insane stretch of October blowtorches since 2016. Upper 80s/low 90s until mid-month has been the rule instead of the rare exception. In fact, I don’t think we’ve had a cool October since 2014 (IIRC). At long last, we’re having a more typical autumn. Was about time. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, Phil said: Historic? Lol. More like seasonably chilly at best. What *was* historic was the insane stretch of October blowtorches since 2016. Upper 80s/low 90s until mid-month has been the rule instead of the rare exception. In fact, I don’t think we’ve had a cool October since 2014 (IIRC). At long last, we’re having a more typical autumn. Was about time. I was just going by a map that Joe Bastardi posted a few days ago. Made it look like it's been super cold back there. I guess it showed the core of the cold anoms further west than where you are. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 For what it’s worth, through day 10 the EPS shows a cooler solution than the GFS has been spitting out. Keeps the ridging centered offshore, even though it’s not digging the weekend shortwave quite as far west as the last few runs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 Nice stormy fall day. Breezy and raining right now. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 1 minute ago, Jesse said: For what it’s worth, through day 10 the EPS shows a cooler solution than the GFS has been spitting out. Keeps the ridging centered offshore, even though it’s not digging the weekend shortwave quite as far west as the last few runs. Yeah....it's quite a bit better than the GFS. The control has the second opportunity that the operational showed early next week. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 12 minutes ago, Jesse said: For what it’s worth, through day 10 the EPS shows a cooler solution than the GFS has been spitting out. Keeps the ridging centered offshore, even though it’s not digging the weekend shortwave quite as far west as the last few runs. I would be okay with that. Some crisp days and chilly mornings. 66/38 sounds nice. 6z GFS in 11 hours 26 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 Wind advisory for PDX metro for 40-45 gusts tonight. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 53 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: This is so funny every time! I know. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 Southerly gradients increasing. As of 3 PM PDX-EUG: -4.2mb PDX-MFR: -6.2mb OLM-PDX: -6.5mb OLM-EUG: -10.7mb Wind Advisory is in effect Greater Portland Metro Area-Central Willamette Valley- Greater Vancouver Area- Including the cities of Hillsboro, Portland, Wilsonville, Oregon City, Gresham, Troutdale, Salem, McMinnville, Woodburn, Stayton, Dallas, Vancouver, Battle Ground, Ridgefield, Washougal, Yacolt, and Amboy 1037 AM PDT Sun Oct 11 2020 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40-45 mph expected. * WHERE...In Washington, Greater Vancouver Area. In Oregon, Greater Portland Metro Area and Central Willamette Valley. * WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 November super duper wet!! Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 12 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: Wind advisory for PDX metro for 40-45 gusts tonight. Weird that’s below advisory criteria. I think? 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 43 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I was just going by a map that Joe Bastardi posted a few days ago. Made it look like it's been super cold back there. I guess it showed the core of the cold anoms further west than where you are. It’s been cooler than average. Nothing record breaking, though. The next 5 days actually look warmer than average. Might not drop below 60°F tonight. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, Phil said: Weird that’s below advisory criteria. I think? Western Oregon inland valleys are some of the least windy places in the lower 48. Are the advisory criteria the same everywhere? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 Nice looking Fall system now moving onto North-Central Vancouver Island. It appears the low is deepening rapidly. The closest Buoy/Station Station 46132 South Brooks Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.52 in 10 11 12:00 pm ENE 27.2 33.0 11.8 8 - - 29.54 -0.15 51.8 60.1 - - - - Station 46087 Neah Bay - 6 NM North of Cape Flattery, WA Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.66 in Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.17 in ( Falling Rapidly ) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said: Western Oregon inland valleys are some of the least windy places in the lower 48. Are the advisory criteria the same everywhere? I think it’s the same everywhere. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 52 minutes ago, Phil said: Historic? Lol. More like seasonably chilly at best. What *was* historic was the insane stretch of October blowtorches since 2016. Upper 80s/low 90s until mid-month has been the rule instead of the rare exception. In fact, I don’t think we’ve had a cool October since 2014 (IIRC). At long last, we’re having a more typical autumn. Was about time. Central Park is running a bone-crushing +1.4 so far. Hard to imagine it getting much more historic than that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 9 minutes ago, Phil said: Weird that’s below advisory criteria. I think? We always really appreciate how you imply that our conditions are below criteria everytime someone mentions a watch or warning on this forum. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Central Park is running a bone-crushing +1.4 so far. Hard to imagine it getting much more historic than that. Looks like the cool anomalies are more centered in the Mississippi valley but nothing too impressive even there. The western warmth has easily been more noteworthy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, Jesse said: We always really appreciate how you imply that our conditions are below criteria everytime someone mentions a watch or warning on this forum. Stating facts is a CRIME. I know. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 0.25” so far today. Have maxed out at 54 so far...coolest day since early May. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 1 minute ago, Jesse said: Looks like the cool anomalies are more centered in the Mississippi valley but nothing too impressive even there. The western warmth has easily been more noteworthy. Still a good chance we end up with our 11th consecutive warm month nationally. November 2019 was the last time the U.S. ran cool. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 11 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Central Park is running a bone-crushing +1.4 so far. Hard to imagine it getting much more historic than that. Glaciers are building as we speak. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, Phil said: Stating facts is a CRIME. I know. #stampedefacts 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 Ridge is WEAKENING by early next week according to the 18z. Stay tuned! 1 1 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 Just now, Jesse said: #stampedefacts Troughing will return. I promise everything will be ok. 1 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 Just now, Phil said: Troughing will return. I promise everything will be ok. Hopefully without any factually incorrect trough advisories 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 Getting a bit breezy here. It’s supposed to be borderline windy not too long from now. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 Just now, Jesse said: Hopefully without any factually incorrect trough advisories Hear hear! 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 14 minutes ago, Phil said: Stating facts is a CRIME. I know. Every time there's a tornado in the PNW, I see a Texan calling them dust devils on a Northwest news page. Is there such thing as an F2-F3 dust devil? Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 34 minutes ago, Phil said: Stating facts is a CRIME. I know. Do 40 MPH gusts ever cause power outages in the DC area? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 8 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: Do 40 MPH gusts ever cause power outages in the DC area? The vast majority of power outages there are caused by lightning striking things within ten feet of Phil. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 0.28” now. Temp up to 56 as southerly winds ramp up here. Definitely feeling like fall! 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 Went from calm conditions at 2pm to 30-35mph gusts now. Seems like the wind didn’t really start kicking up much until about 4pm. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 Meanwhile Nino 3.4 has officially dropped below -1.0 now. Full blown Nina. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 Blew off the driveway in the rain...Just wanted Jesse to have mixed emotions. anyway up to .23” on the day, 1.42” on the month, 43.68” on the year. currently raining and 49 degrees. High of 51. 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 5 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: As they are fond of saying in the BC forums, if you don't like the weather patterns where you live: MOVE. Seriously, though, I think your location has a very good shot of seeing three or four inches on the ground at some point this winter. Such amounts really aren’t that unusual in your area. A few dustings and one dump of several inches is completely in line with climactic norms. I've dropped a few subtle and not so subtle hints to my wife about Maine/New Hampshire area and she's not biting....I would love it there, but I think it's a bit too much cold and snow for her.... 2 2 1 1 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 12, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 12, 2020 63F. Calm and dry all day in Springfield. EUG is a bit more windy at 12mph right now. 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted October 12, 2020 Report Share Posted October 12, 2020 sneaky windy here 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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