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October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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There will be plenty of GOA blocking this winter.

The end of this month is going to be down right frigid with frost on my pumpkins.

November is going to be super duper wet.

The rest of the winter is going to be drier and cooler than normal.

Two big wind storms are in bound. Two good snow makers - one for Oregon, one for Washington.

Lots of fog.  There's also going to be lots of fog.  Oh, and one major flooding event that FOLLOWS a major lowland snow dump.  Somewhere during the frigid cold snow dump Tim will be pointing out how it will be  in the mid 40's and raining in no time at all.

It's a lock. 

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I don’t know if it was mentioned, but the 2019-2020 water year at SLE ended up their 8th driest on record. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah...who would have thought they would have a near historic cold October in the East.  Just the way it goes sometimes.

Historic? Lol. More like seasonably chilly at best. What *was* historic was the insane stretch of October blowtorches since 2016. Upper 80s/low 90s until mid-month has been the rule instead of the rare exception. In fact, I don’t think we’ve had a cool October since 2014 (IIRC).

At long last, we’re having a more typical autumn. Was about time.

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Historic? Lol. More like seasonably chilly at best. What *was* historic was the insane stretch of October blowtorches since 2016. Upper 80s/low 90s until mid-month has been the rule instead of the rare exception. In fact, I don’t think we’ve had a cool October since 2014 (IIRC).

At long last, we’re having a more typical autumn. Was about time.

I was just going by a map that Joe Bastardi posted a few days ago.  Made it look like it's been super cold back there.  I guess it showed the core of the cold anoms further west than where you are.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

For what it’s worth, through day 10 the EPS shows a cooler solution than the GFS has been spitting out. Keeps the ridging centered offshore, even though it’s not digging the weekend shortwave quite as far west as the last few runs.

Yeah....it's quite a bit better than the GFS.  The control has the second opportunity that the operational showed early next week.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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12 minutes ago, Jesse said:

For what it’s worth, through day 10 the EPS shows a cooler solution than the GFS has been spitting out. Keeps the ridging centered offshore, even though it’s not digging the weekend shortwave quite as far west as the last few runs.

I would be okay with that. Some crisp days and chilly mornings. 66/38 sounds nice.

 

6z GFS in 11 hours 26 minutes

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Southerly gradients increasing.

As of 3 PM

PDX-EUG: -4.2mb

PDX-MFR: -6.2mb

OLM-PDX: -6.5mb

OLM-EUG: -10.7mb

 

Wind Advisory is in effect

Greater Portland Metro Area-Central Willamette Valley-
Greater Vancouver Area-
Including the cities of Hillsboro, Portland, Wilsonville,
Oregon City, Gresham, Troutdale, Salem, McMinnville, Woodburn,
Stayton, Dallas, Vancouver, Battle Ground, Ridgefield, Washougal,
Yacolt, and Amboy
1037 AM PDT Sun Oct 11 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PDT
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40-45 mph
  expected.

* WHERE...In Washington, Greater Vancouver Area. In Oregon,
  Greater Portland Metro Area and Central Willamette Valley.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.
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November super duper wet!!

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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12 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Wind advisory for PDX metro for 40-45 gusts tonight.

Weird that’s below advisory criteria. I think?

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43 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I was just going by a map that Joe Bastardi posted a few days ago.  Made it look like it's been super cold back there.  I guess it showed the core of the cold anoms further west than where you are.

It’s been cooler than average. Nothing record breaking, though.

The next 5 days actually look warmer than average. Might not drop below 60°F tonight.

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Nice looking Fall system now moving onto North-Central Vancouver Island. It appears the low is deepening rapidly.

 

The closest Buoy/Station

Station 46132 South Brooks

5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES):

29.52 in

10 11 12:00 pm ENE 27.2 33.0 11.8 8 - - 29.54 -0.15 51.8 60.1 - - -

-

 

Station 46087 Neah Bay - 6 NM North of Cape Flattery, WA

5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.66 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.17 in ( Falling Rapidly )

image.png

image.png

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1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Western Oregon inland valleys are some of the least windy places in the lower 48. Are the advisory criteria the same everywhere?

I think it’s the same everywhere.

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52 minutes ago, Phil said:

Historic? Lol. More like seasonably chilly at best. What *was* historic was the insane stretch of October blowtorches since 2016. Upper 80s/low 90s until mid-month has been the rule instead of the rare exception. In fact, I don’t think we’ve had a cool October since 2014 (IIRC).

At long last, we’re having a more typical autumn. Was about time.

Central Park is running a bone-crushing +1.4 so far. Hard to imagine it getting much more historic than that.

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7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Central Park is running a bone-crushing +1.4 so far. Hard to imagine it getting much more historic than that.

Looks like the cool anomalies are more centered in the Mississippi valley but nothing too impressive even there. The western warmth has easily been more noteworthy.

AA5E8BAE-D87D-414D-8BF8-7123948B115C.png

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5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

 We always really appreciate how you imply that our conditions are below criteria everytime someone mentions a watch or warning on this forum. :wub:

Stating facts is a CRIME. I know.

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Looks like the cool anomalies are more centered in the Mississippi valley but nothing too impressive even there. The western warmth has easily been more noteworthy.

AA5E8BAE-D87D-414D-8BF8-7123948B115C.png

 

Still a good chance we end up with our 11th consecutive warm month nationally. November 2019 was the last time the U.S. ran cool.

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11 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Central Park is running a bone-crushing +1.4 so far. Hard to imagine it getting much more historic than that.

Glaciers are building as we speak.

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Just now, Jesse said:

#stampedefacts

Troughing will return. I promise everything will be ok.

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Just now, Jesse said:

Hopefully without any factually incorrect trough advisories 😤

Hear hear! 🍻

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14 minutes ago, Phil said:

Stating facts is a CRIME. I know.

Every time there's a tornado in the PNW, I see a Texan calling them dust devils on a Northwest news page.

Is there such thing as an F2-F3 dust devil? 😆

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Meanwhile Nino 3.4 has officially dropped below -1.0 now.  Full blown Nina.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Blew off the driveway in the rain...Just wanted Jesse to have mixed emotions. 
anyway up to .23” on the day, 1.42” on the month, 43.68” on the year. 
currently raining and 49 degrees. 
High of 51. 

92477C1C-4F42-4B69-A8B3-FC094B0AB5DB.jpeg

D1022819-F7EE-4632-BDDD-7B8525C945FE.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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5 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

As they are fond of saying in the BC forums, if you don't like the weather patterns where you live: MOVE.

Seriously, though, I think your location has a very good shot of seeing three or four inches on the ground at some point this winter. Such amounts really aren’t that unusual in your area. A few dustings and one dump of several inches is completely in line with climactic norms.

I've dropped a few subtle and not so subtle hints to my wife about Maine/New Hampshire area and she's not biting....I would love it there, but I think it's a bit too much cold and snow for her....

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63F. Calm and dry all day in Springfield. EUG is a bit more windy at 12mph right now.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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