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October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I've been through there once and liked it.  I have noticed it is quite cold on the hourly obs many times during the winter.

It does really well at radiational cooling. In January 2004 Deer Park dropped to -28 F. I used to live in nearby Chattaroy. The whole area is very sleepy and rural. 

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56 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The Central Puget Sound is one of the better places for them in Western WA.  There was another one that sounds like it was easily an EF2 in north King County in 1969.  They happen every so often

I'm surprised the stronger ones don't have a more frequent precedence east of the cascades. Ones like the Long Creek tornado in Eastern OR (F2 - 06/03/1894). Reportedly had a width nearly wedge sized but I don't think a lot of damage resulted from it. 

I was just thinking to myself recently how most tornadoes on the other side of the cascades are spawned in a different nature, warm-cored and form in rotating thunderstorms, therefore a higher rating I thought shouldn't be nearly unheard of on that side of the state. But maybe they're just rural enough that some happen and nobody knows about them.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Down in Timmy Supercell country tonight!

Here’s  a shot of Crater lake earlier today.    Brisk winds and drizzle. I’m sure the lake was down there somewhere in the white mist!  Didn’t matter as I just loved being in the rowdy wind blowing drizzle...easily entertained :)
Back down on 97 it was a different world of partly sunny skies.   Stars are out in Klamath Tonight 
 

F105E256-C5C1-46F5-BBE2-470BA99F12B4.jpeg

20C11FC5-92EA-446A-9DBA-3C1DF22E1B2A.jpeg

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5 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Down in Timmy Supercell country tonight!

Here’s  a shot of Crater lake earlier today.    Brisk winds and drizzle. I’m sure the lake was down there somewhere in the white mist!  Didn’t matter as I just loved being in the rowdy wind blowing drizzle...easily entertained :)
Back down on 97 it was a different world of partly sunny skies.   Stars are out in Kalama Tonight 
 

F105E256-C5C1-46F5-BBE2-470BA99F12B4.jpeg

20C11FC5-92EA-446A-9DBA-3C1DF22E1B2A.jpeg

Stars are out here too. Haven't had any fog lately, hope I get some soon ;)

Nice shots by the way!

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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9 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Down in Timmy Supercell country tonight!

Here’s  a shot of Crater lake earlier today.    Brisk winds and drizzle. I’m sure the lake was down there somewhere in the white mist!  Didn’t matter as I just loved being in the rowdy wind blowing drizzle...easily entertained :)
Back down on 97 it was a different world of partly sunny skies.   Stars are out in Kalama Tonight 
 

F105E256-C5C1-46F5-BBE2-470BA99F12B4.jpeg

20C11FC5-92EA-446A-9DBA-3C1DF22E1B2A.jpeg

One thing that I find interesting about the Crater Lake area is that Mt Scott's treeline seems to be very high. The summit is at 8900' and there are still trees at the top. Pretty impressive for just below 43ºN and it seems higher than other mountains and ranges in that region.

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8 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

One thing that I find interesting about the Crater Lake area is that Mt Scott's treeline seems to be very high. The summit is at 8900' and there are still trees at the top. Pretty impressive for just below 43ºN and it seems higher than other mountains and ranges in that region.

Thousands of years ago when there used to be Mount Mazama (now Crater Lake) wasn't that the highest peak in Oregon? I could have my geography off a bit, but the size was supposed to be massive and its eruption is in nowadays scale pretty inconceivable.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Really gotta hope the GFS is wrong in the mid range with putting another big fat ridge directly over us. I much prefer what the Euro and EPS have been showing with most of the height rises staying offshore and brushes with cool air to our east. Would be a much more seasonable pattern with some cooler nights finally.

This will probably be the one time everything trends toward the OP GFS though, given how this fall has gone so far.

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Jesus Christ. Cedar Rapids, IA is still a mess after the Derecho back in early August. Hard to fathom how destructive this must have been.

Thread.

 

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16 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Really gotta hope the GFS is wrong in the mid range with putting another big fat ridge directly over us. I much prefer what the Euro and EPS have been showing with most of the height rises staying offshore and brushes with cool air to our east. Would be a much more seasonable pattern with some cooler nights finally.

This will probably be the one time everything trends toward the OP GFS though, given how this fall has gone so far.

For now it’s kind of on its own. Canadian and Euro look better.

If the Euro was the more progressive solution, that might be more significant. But per the usual, it’s the GFS.

 

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I'm surprised nobody has mentioned the GFS ensemble yet.  I just looked and was shocked to see how many cold members there were.  We'll see if that was just a hiccup or not pretty shortly I would think.

15 members show the 850s dropping to 3C or lower next weekend.  Way better than any recent run.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just looked at the GEM and it is dramatically better than its previous run.  Maybe this isn't dead yet.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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57F and cloudy. A bit blustery at times winds about 15 mph or so.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Major change on the ECMWF.  150 ridge at day 6.  Looks very promising!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z ECMWF Day 6

500h_anom.na.png

Insane blocking depicted there.  The part over the Pacific is MUCH better than the past couple of runs.  Looks like the trough is going to drop straight in here.  This explains why the GFS ensemble changed so much.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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That ECMWF run has tons of potential.  As it is...at face value it appears we would get our first lows in the 30s and some pretty nice weather to boot.  Day 10 looks like strong potential for a block to explode behind that approaching trough.  Decent run overall.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Nice to see the Euro staying pretty far from the GFS solution. An improvement over its 12z run too.

It's impressive to see how much the models are struggling with this.  We could still be in the running for something pretty good anywhere in the 6 to 11 day period.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That ECMWF run has tons of potential.  As it is...at face value it appears we would get our first lows in the 30s and some pretty nice weather to boot.  Day 10 looks like strong potential for a block to explode behind that approaching trough.  Decent run overall.

It wasn't bad. It could have certainly been worse I guess. Let's see if the EPS improves any. C'MON!!!!

 

12z NAM in 6 hours 40 minutes

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58F with some rain.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

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