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October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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Canadian shows a major snowstorm out this way this weekend. Models are really struggling with where to setup that ridge. 

Typical fall model struggles I suppose.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

ECMWF places the block offshore, where the GFS and Canadian put it over us.

Didn't realize the Canadian jumped ship this morning. It had been supporting a more Euro like solution for several runs

The 12z GFS actually took a big step toward the Euro.

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12 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Didn't realize the Canadian jumped ship this morning. It had been supporting a more Euro like solution for several runs

The 12z GFS actually took a big step toward the Euro.

It's further west with the weekend trough though. Ridge is more progressive than the Euro but the models are really struggling beyond day 5 at this point so take it with a grain of salt. 

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Gonna be much better this winter than last year. ❄️

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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53 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

We should get some wind advisory's out of this south of Tacoma

Nws already said there will likely be advisory criteria winds pretty much everywhere. Last night was pretty windy but this looks a tad more potent. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Total snow per the 12Z ECMWF:

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_snow_10to1-3346400.png

I guess it's Washington first, suckers later ;)

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I guess it's Washington first, suckers later ;)

Early action is usually Washington-based stuff. That's why we down here prefer the cold anomalies to hold off until about Nov 15th or later.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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8 minutes ago, Kayla said:

It's further west with the weekend trough though. Ridge is more progressive than the Euro but the models are really struggling beyond day 5 at this point so take it with a grain of salt. 

A lot of where the future blocking develops seems to come down to the exact placement and timing of individual ripples in the jet the next several days, which can be hard to predict in a quasi zonal pattern like the current one.

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3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Early action is usually Washington-based stuff. That's why we down here prefer the cold anomalies to hold off until about Nov 15th or later.

Because the ONLY purpose for cold anomalies is snow. :rolleyes:

Speak for yourself.

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3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Because the ONLY purpose for cold anomalies is snow.

Speak for yourself.

With as few cold anomalies as we get, I feel like it would be nice for them to happen during our regular season.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Hiked up crystal mountain 1 year ago today to check out some of their early season snowfall. Want to head up there soon but just haven’t had the time to. Not even sure if you can with Covid restrictions. 

2B467E52-2D00-4618-9B7C-6532DBD47600.jpeg

E73628D1-4CF8-44C5-8927-6D9B416E30FD.jpeg

E916D5DC-CF1F-4C25-A739-92C40E07CF96.jpeg

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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7 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

With as few cold anomalies as we get, I feel like it would be nice for them to happen during our regular season.

Yeah but I don't think it works that way. Rather than picturing it as we have a limited amount of cold cards to play and if we get some out of season it's too early and we are "wasting them", imagine it as some years the dealer will be handing out more than others. If the dealer is being generous with cold cards throughout the year in seasons other than the heart of winter, it can often be a good sign because it means the atmosphere has an overall tendency to be in a favorable state for us. 

This is obviously an oversimplification as there are a lot of other factors to consider, but hopefully you get my drift.

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28 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Early action is usually Washington-based stuff. That's why we down here prefer the cold anomalies to hold off until about Nov 15th or later.

That's right about when my winter officially kicks in. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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12 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Hiked up crystal mountain 1 year ago today to check out some of their early season snowfall. Want to head up there soon but just haven’t had the time to. Not even sure if you can with Covid restrictions. 

[pictures deleted]

You should be able to. Being outdoors by yourself is one of the safest places to be with respect to COVID-19. I have done a lot of hiking this season and found very few restrictions. I believe Crystal, like most ski resorts in Washington, doesn't actually own any land; they lease the right to operate a ski resort from the Forest Service. So the land itself is public and you should have free access to it during the off season.

I picked alpine blueberries this year at Mount Baker, same as last year. Harvested them from a ski run, as usual.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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23 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Yeah but I don't think it works that way. Rather than picturing it as we have a limited amount of cold cards to play and if we get some out of season it's too early and we are "wasting them", imagine it as some years the dealer will be handing out more than others. If the dealer is being generous with cold cards throughout the year in seasons other than the heart of winter, it can often be a good sign because it means the atmosphere has an overall tendency to be in a favorable state for us. 

This is obviously an oversimplification as there are a lot of other factors to consider, but hopefully you get my drift.

I do but I still agree to disagree. The deck is stacked against us more and more every year. Hoping the few cold anomalies we get, even if they're in our favor as we are counting cards, shouldn't be that big of a deal IMO.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I do but I still agree to disagree. The deck is stacked against us more and more every year. Hoping the few cold anomalies we get, even if they're in our favor as we are counting cards, shouldn't be that big of a deal IMO.

 

49d.jpg

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Phil. What do you think about these analog years? 

1954-55

1970-71

 

 

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Anyone notice that solar activity seems to be rather low this year?

I want a list of good cascade pack winters that had low solar/sodium. 🍔🍟

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Phil. What do you think about these analog years? 

1954-55

1970-71

 

 

 

Jan 1971 looked like it was fun.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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It is interesting. Very few examples of weak back to back Ninos followed by at least a moderate Nina. 

1952-53 and 53-54 were both weak Ninos. However, 1954-55 was only a weak Nina, so it is not a perfect match as we look to have at least a moderate Nina this winter. 

The 1968-69 Nino was a touch stronger than 2018-19, but similar, and then 1969-70 was a weak Nino, followed by a moderate/strong Nina in 1970-71.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It is interesting. Very few examples of weak back to back Ninos followed by at least a moderate Nina. 

1952-53 and 53-54 were both weak Ninos. However, 1954-55 was only a weak Nina, so it is not a perfect match as we look to have at least a moderate Nina this winter. 

The 1968-69 Nino was a touch stronger than 2018-19, but similar, and then 1969-70 was a weak Nino, followed by a moderate/strong Nina in 1970-71.

What kind of winter was 1955-1956? 

That was also one of the winters San Francisco flooded and of course 100" of snow fell here.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Jan 1971 looked like it was fun.

Basically pre climate change January 2012.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Nice day...

20201012_130226.jpg

More colors!

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Just now, Timmy_Supercell said:

What kind of winter was 1955-1956? 

That was also one of the winters San Francisco flooded and of course 100" of snow fell here.

Strong Nina. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Kind of amazing between 1956-57 and 1970-71 there was only one Nina, and it was a weak one. Tons of neutral ENSO years in there. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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