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October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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From the source I am looking at... This will only be the 5th time we have had a Nina follow two back to back Ninos since 1950. The previous 4 winters were:

 

1954-55

1970-71

1988-89

2016-17

 

16-17 and 88-89 followed significant Ninos. 

16-17 barely met the threshold of a Nina, and 1954-55 was fairly weak too. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Kind of amazing between 1956-57 and 1970-71 there was only one Nina, and it was a weak one. Tons of neutral ENSO years in there. 

What a great period of weather that was Andrew. A lot of great winters AND wasted off season cold anomalies. 🥰

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During that period of years my all-time record low of -25 was set in Jan 1962 I think it was.

Curious what rural Klamath County had that winter.. in Dec 2013 folks who live in outline areas had at least -25 to -30 on 12/08/2013. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

What a great period of weather that was Andrew. A lot of great winters AND wasted off season cold anomalies. 🥰

A bit off topic, but what do you think our best back-to back winters of all time were? I think 1948-49/1949-50 is a pretty easy pick, but there are a few in the running for #2. 1928-29/29-30, 1955-56/56-57, 1935-36/36-37 is a dark horse candidate too. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its the middle of October.  

Last year at this time there was definitely more color here.  This year the leaves on most of my red maples are dropping leaves and are drab in color.  I have birch trees that are quite yellow but that is about it.  Very few nights where the temperature got into the low 40's is a likely contributor to the drab showing.

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25 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

From the source I am looking at... This will only be the 5th time we have had a Nina follow two back to back Ninos since 1950. The previous 4 winters were:

 

1954-55

1970-71

1988-89

2016-17

 

16-17 and 88-89 followed significant Ninos. 

16-17 barely met the threshold of a Nina, and 1954-55 was fairly weak too. 

Snow totals at the old station. Seemed like 16-17 did a little better than the others. 54-55 was exactly average.

1954-55: 35.90" (2 SSW station)

1970-71: 44.70" (2 SSW)

1988-89: 57.90" (2 SSW)

2016-17: 63.00" (my house)

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A bit off topic, but what do you think our best back-to back winters of all time were? I think 1948-49/1949-50 is a pretty easy pick, but there are a few in the running for #2. 1928-29/29-30, 1955-56/56-57, 1935-36/36-37 is a dark horse candidate too. 

Prolly ‘48-‘49/‘49-‘50

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8 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Snow totals at the old station. Seemed like 16-17 did a little better than the others. 54-55 was exactly average.

1954-55: 35.90" (2 SSW station)

1970-71: 44.70" (2 SSW)

1988-89: 57.90" (2 SSW)

2016-17: 63.00" (my house)

February 1989 was epic but I guess I'm just intrinsically cautious about putting too much faith in analogues and so prefer to go with climo for a strong La Niña. That said, I sure wouldn’t mind a replay of February 1989. Those with tender perennials in their gardens would probably disagree.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A bit off topic, but what do you think our best back-to back winters of all time were? I think 1948-49/1949-50 is a pretty easy pick, but there are a few in the running for #2. 1928-29/29-30, 1955-56/56-57, 1935-36/36-37 is a dark horse candidate too. 

Those look good! How about years were you were alive...My vote for that would be 1995-96/1996-97! Wind and snow events galore!! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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10 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Snow totals at the old station. Seemed like 16-17 did a little better than the others. 54-55 was exactly average.

1954-55: 35.90" (2 SSW station)

1970-71: 44.70" (2 SSW)

1988-89: 57.90" (2 SSW)

2016-17: 63.00" (my house)

Yeah 1954-55 was not very exciting. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, MossMan said:

Those look good! How about years were you were alive...My vote for that would be 1995-96/96-97! Wind and snow events galore!! 

96-97 was extremely lame down here. We really have not had great back to back winters in my lifetime. I would probably have to go with 1989-90/90-91. UGH. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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48-49 / 49-50 Duo together dropped 140" inches here. Though ones like 1992-93 had more consistency. There were maybe 2 or 3 months that made up most of that 140" further back. Jan 1950 by itself dumped 5 feet of snow in Klamath Falls. The month before and after that were not exciting.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I think you would have liked that March Andrew.

Yes, it was a very cold March. The low of 10 on the 5th is the all-time March low at Silver Falls. 

 

Silver Falls also recorded 10" of snow on Christmas Day 1954. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

You should be able to. Being outdoors by yourself is one of the safest places to be with respect to COVID-19. I have done a lot of hiking this season and found very few restrictions. I believe Crystal, like most ski resorts in Washington, doesn't actually own any land; they lease the right to operate a ski resort from the Forest Service. So the land itself is public and you should have free access to it during the off season.

I picked alpine blueberries this year at Mount Baker, same as last year. Harvested them from a ski run, as usual.

I assumed you could but I wasn’t entirely sure. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 hour ago, Jesse said:

Yeah but I don't think it works that way. Rather than picturing it as we have a limited amount of cold cards to play and if we get some out of season it's too early and we are "wasting them", imagine it as some years the dealer will be handing out more than others. If the dealer is being generous with cold cards throughout the year in seasons other than the heart of winter, it can often be a good sign because it means the atmosphere has an overall tendency to be in a favorable state for us. 

This is obviously an oversimplification as there are a lot of other factors to consider, but hopefully you get my drift.

I think there’s an element of truth in both perspectives.

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1 hour ago, iFred said:

Tomorrow looks fun.

Looking stronger than any windstorm we had last winter! Was pretty windy last night but this should be a notch higher. Kind of interesting how lacking last year was in terms of windstorms. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

How cold did you get in March                        2019

17 at my house. Silver Falls hit 19, which was their first sub- 20 March low since 1976. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Phil. What do you think about these analog years? 

1954-55

1970-71

 

 

 

1954/55 is okay. Both had descending Wrly shear/mixed QBO but keep in mind that was a -NAM/narrow z-cell/cold phase era, and we’re pretty far removed from that right now.

I think 1930s/40s boundary conditions (and 1980s onwards) are more applicable now vs 1950s-70s.

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It is interesting. Very few examples of weak back to back Ninos followed by at least a moderate Nina. 

1952-53 and 53-54 were both weak Ninos. However, 1954-55 was only a weak Nina, so it is not a perfect match as we look to have at least a moderate Nina this winter. 

The 1968-69 Nino was a touch stronger than 2018-19, but similar, and then 1969-70 was a weak Nino, followed by a moderate/strong Nina in 1970-71.

2019/20 registered “weak” +ENSO in terms of ONI, but the +IOD/IPWP subsidence was off the frickin charts. I consider 2019/20 to be more +ENSO in sum vs 2018/19, despite the fact the ONI was higher in 2018/19.

1986/87 and 1987/88 were both niños. Followed by 1988/89, which was a strong Niña without a Pacific cold phase regime..much like 2020. And it featured a warm/ridgy start to autumn.

I really like 1988/89 as an analog right now.

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Just now, Phil said:

2019/20 registered “weak” +ENSO in terms of ONI, but the +IOD/IPWP subsidence was off the frickin charts. I consider 2019/20 to be more +ENSO in sum vs 2018/19, despite the fact the ONI was higher in 2018/19.

1986/87 and 1987/88 were both niños. Followed by 1988/89, which was a strong Niña without a Pacific cold phase regime..much like 2020. And it featured a warm/ridgy start to autumn.

I really like 1988/89 as an analog. 

Makes sense. That one and 1970-71 seemed like much better fits than 54-55 and 16-17. I was just looking at RAW ONI numbers, so obviously last year was weak in that regard. 

I also think of February 2019 as a later season poor man's version of January 1969. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Any ENSO resources for Pre-1950? 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, Jesse said:

You must have gotten an extra shot in your low fat pumpkin 🎃 spice latte this morning Andrew ;)

I am gearing up for the season! Taking my annual October trip to Oklahoma next week, and then getting ready to rock and roll when I get back on the 27th! Also I will be releasing my annual winter forecast sometime before the end of the month. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Halloween looks wet on the 12z CFS. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Halloween looks wet on the 12z CFS. 

Let it pour on Halloween here since everyone will be home!

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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28 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I would agree. But the “we’re blowing our load to early!!!” mentality doesn’t really hold a lot of water in either case.

I do agree in principle. Though if it’s a case where LF wavetrain harmonics are present, then sure it can end up out of phase/ill-timed for the cold season. Imagine a lower frequency manifestation of the Branstrator cycle. But that’s not truly random, either.

And I don’t think that’s the issue this year anyway, given the degree of interhemispheric destructive interference present.

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This year, with the deck stacked in our favor and a bunch of face cards upcoming, I don't actually think there will be any early "load blowing" even if we get something cold here soon. The indices are way different.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Makes sense. That one and 1970-71 seemed like much better fits than 54-55 and 16-17. I was just looking at RAW ONI numbers, so obviously last year was weak in that regard. 

I also think of February 2019 as a later season poor man's version of January 1969. 

On paper you’d think 2016/17 would be a decent analog. Problem is it had a warm EPAC (and even flipped to +ENSO territory in niño-3 for F/M/A, in some ways resembling 1997/98). Obviously nothing like the cold EPAC we have going on right now.

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37 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

17 at my house. Silver Falls hit 19, which was their first sub- 20 March low since 1976. 

 

36 minutes ago, Jesse said:

WOW

I had a low of 19 in March 2019. Teens in March (at least in the first half) aren't really rare at my place considering the average low is 26.

Here's a look at March 2017 and 2018, I had lows even colder those months. That 11 in 2018 could have been a daily record.

March 2019 will get extra points though with 6.2" inches of snow on the morning of 03/10/2019. That was my best daily snowfall (24hrs) that season.

2017-03.png

2018-03.png

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Also it’s interesting we have the +IOD trying to resurface now w/ a relative SSTA/UOHC minimum in the E-IO.

+IOD/-ENSO is destructive interference via two of the three foundations of the ENSO/warm pool system. Doesn’t happen often. But some of the stronger niñas in recent memory (2007/07 and 1999/00) did have a more +IOD. And they were both unique in their own ways.

By contrast, 2016/17 was very -IOD upon the establishment of the -ENSO.

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Nice day overall...up to 61 with a nice mix of clouds and sun here. Crazy that we’re halfway through meteorological fall on Thursday already. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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But there could also be a period in December where we overlap (metaphorically) with the 2016/17 progression. Maybe. Spitballing a little bit rn.

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4 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

 

I had a low of 19 in March 2019. Teens in March (at least in the first half) aren't really rare at my place considering the average low is 26.

Here's a look at March 2017 and 2018, I had lows even colder those months. That 11 in 2018 could have been a daily record.

March 2019 will get extra points though with 6.2" inches of snow on the morning of 03/10/2019. That was my best daily snowfall (24hrs) that season.

2017-03.png

2018-03.png

I think we had one morning hit 26 here that month...several others in the 20s as well. Had 1.5” of snow that month too still the best March I’ve seen in my lifetime in terms of snow and cold. Was pretty interesting we went from mid 30s and snow to mid 70s and sunshine here in a weeks time. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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February/March 2019 was epic. Probably one of my favorite memories besides getting nearly 2 feet of snow at my house was going up to orcas island in March 2019. Was 3 feet of snow up there still and nobody else on the mountain except me. 

2217B846-AB1E-4208-B391-F29508E34561.jpeg

262859F3-B3E2-4B1D-B2F8-4DF0743AD9B0.jpeg

6D7E5FE0-FF34-46EB-8CD1-C8EB5C953DA0.jpeg

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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