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October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Part of the decision was also it is what we can afford, you live in a great location with the best of both worlds available. And if we are being real, I could not afford to live where you do. Once you get up around 1600' in Western Oregon you just are more often than not going to be in a very rural area with limited infrastructure. Maybe some spots out around Sandy would be similar and have better infrastructure, but I am not sure, and then affordability could be an issue too. 

I enjoy the rural lifestyle for the most part, and do not really need to feel like I am in the city. It is probably a little harder on my wife. The internet and cell issues are a challenge without great solutions at this point (Though my company is shelling out quite a bit for a cell booster.), the power issue is a little more in our control since we can purchase a generator. But that is not cheap either and it has taken a couple of years from making that decision to be able to save up the money to purchase one that can run the whole house, shop, and well pump, and be professionally installed. 

I am struggling mightily with this as I am trying to plot my next career move.  I'm really hoping I can land a remote work gig and stay in Whatcom County, but it is looking very likely that I am going to have to find something in the Seattle area (probably east side).  As expensive as Bellingham is, I'm having a really hard time finding anything I can afford that is also in an area that my wife and I would want to live.  I am wanting to do as rural as I can get away with, but your experience last month has given me some pause on those plans...

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40 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Part of the decision was also it is what we can afford, you live in a great location with the best of both worlds available. And if we are being real, I could not afford to live where you do. Once you get up around 1600' in Western Oregon you just are more often than not going to be in a very rural area with limited infrastructure. Maybe some spots out around Sandy would be similar and have better infrastructure, but I am not sure, and then affordability could be an issue too. 

I enjoy the rural lifestyle for the most part, and do not really need to feel like I am in the city. It is probably a little harder on my wife. The internet and cell issues are a challenge without great solutions at this point (Though my company is shelling out quite a bit for a cell booster.), the power issue is a little more in our control since we can purchase a generator. But that is not cheap either and it has taken a couple of years from making that decision to be able to save up the money to purchase one that can run the whole house, shop, and well pump, and be professionally installed. 

The internet and cell issues at our house has taken a toll on my wife that has been working from home since March...Been a big challenge. The previous owners of our house left the generator which was great since the generator I had would not power the this house...Anyway we have found when the power goes out here it’s out at least 24hrs so a generator is a must here. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Gradients are starting to relax now, so should see wind gusts slowly come down over the next hour or two for most places along the I-5 corridor.

Overall I would say this "windstorm" under-performed. Looks like we will have to continue to wait a bit longer to get a nice, stronger windstorm.

True that, though the people who lost power would not say that

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I have never understood why people root for high winds. I had a very strong wind event on Labor Day. Now me and most of my neighbors are traumatized for life. 

As a bona-fide “wind enthusiast”... that Labor Day storm was one of the most frightening weather events I’ve witnessed. Hellish. I hope something like that never happens again, to say the least.

As much as some folks do like strong winds and heavy rain and whatever else extreme weather brings— there’s always that sadness in realizing that it does have implications for many folks.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Had some gusts around 40mph at times but definitely not 45-50mph. The thunderstorm this morning was much more exciting. Either way it won’t be the strongest storm of the season should get some stronger ones soon. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I am struggling mightily with this as I am trying to plot my next career move.  I'm really hoping I can land a remote work gig and stay in Whatcom County, but it is looking very likely that I am going to have to find something in the Seattle area (probably east side).  As expensive as Bellingham is, I'm having a really hard time finding anything I can afford that is also in an area that my wife and I would want to live.  I am wanting to do as rural as I can get away with, but your experience last month has given me some pause on those plans...

The pandemic and now the fires have greatly increased the sense of isolation I feel living here. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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My thoughts regarding extreme weather.

It depends on what you have personally experienced. When it comes to high winds I find it exhilarating. That roaring sound. The sheer raw untamed, force, and power of mother nature. The trees bending sideways. The power flashes illuminating the sky. I have been through several power outages due to high winds, but it is never too prolonged. If I had a tree blown down through my house, or smash a vehicle, or if I were in a rural area and downed trees blocked me from traveling into town, well I'm sure I would have a different perspective on high winds. As far as the historic Labor Day east wind storm(mainly in the Foothills) that was an entirely different set of circumstances and the winds alone would have been memorable I'm sure, but then add fire and we are talking another animal entirely. I would say until we have experienced either damage and destruction from high winds or being evacuated due to fire we will never be able to truly understand what someone like Andrew and others went through and why they may be traumatized due to it. Usually power outages here from strong winds are relatively brief. The only exception to that would be the devastating ice storm of December 26th, 1996 when my area was without power for 6 days.

Even though I've been through that and we had to flee our home staying at a family friends residence. We could barely even make it down our driveway. We had to wait later that day when a portion of the ice melted to be able to leave and by then our house dropped to 36 degrees! We only had natural gas for heat. You would think that event would give me a form of "PTSD" when it comes to ice storms, but it hasn't really. I don't know. Other extreme weather events such as severe thunderstorms usually in our area only amounts to frequent lightning, gusty winds, maybe nickel to quarter sized hail. If you live along or east of the Cascades we know the severe hazards can be far more impactful. Snow storms I just say bring it on. The 'extreme' side of it can make one snow-bound not able to travel, and you can lose power if its a wet, heavy snow, but overall I just say bring on snow! December 2008 on Christmas Eve I shoveled out our entire cul-de-sac 2' of snow with hopes our family friends could make it to our house for our annual Christmas Eve dinner and gathering. Ha! They still weren't able to make it. So I guess for my experiences and my perspective I enjoy about every aspect of extreme weather. Others will not. No one roots for damage and destruction even as we are excited by extreme weather. That's the way it is.

 

[Model Countdown]

00z GFS in 5 hours 31 minutes

00z GEM/CMC in 4 hours 53 minutes

00z ECMWF in 7 hours 48 minutes

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9 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

My thoughts regarding extreme weather.

It depends on what you have personally experienced. When it comes to high winds I find it exhilarating. That roaring sound. The sheer raw untamed, force, and power of mother nature. The trees bending sideways. The power flashes illuminating the sky. I have been through several power outages due to high winds, but it is never too prolonged. If I had a tree blown down through my house, or smash a vehicle, or if I were in a rural area and downed trees blocked me from traveling into town, well I'm sure I would have a different perspective on high winds. As far as the historic Labor Day east wind storm(mainly in the Foothills) that was an entirely different set of circumstances and the winds alone would have been memorable I'm sure, but then add fire and we are talking another animal entirely. I would say until we have experienced either damage and destruction from high winds or being evacuated due to fire we will never be able to truly understand what someone like Andrew and others went through and why they may be traumatized due to it. My power doesn't often go out here even during strong winds.

The only exception to that would be the devastating ice storm of December 26th, 1996 when my area was without power for 6 days. Even though I've been through that and we had to flee our home staying at a family friends residence. We could barely even make it down our driveway. We had to wait later that day when a portion of the ice melted to be able to leave and by then our house dropped to 36 degrees! We only had natural gas for heat. You would think that event would give me a form of "PTSD" when it comes to ice storms, but it hasn't really. I don't know. Other extreme weather events such as severe thunderstorms usually in our area only amounts to frequent lightning, gusty winds, maybe nickel to quarter sized hail. If you live along or east of the Cascades we know the severe hazards can be far more impactful. Storm storms I just say bring it on. The 'extreme' side of it can make one snow-bound not able to travel, and you can lose power if its a wet, heavy snow, but overall I just say bring on snow! December 2008 on Christmas Eve I shoveled out our entire cul-de-sac 2' of snow with hopes our family friends could make it to our house for our annual Christmas Eve dinner and gathering. Ha! They still weren't able to make it. So I guess for my experiences and my perspective I enjoy about every aspect of extreme weather. Others will not. That's the way it is.

 

[Model Countdown]

00z GFS in 5 hours 31 minutes

00z GEM/CMC in 4 hours 53 minutes

00z ECMWF in 7 hours 48 minutes

Good points. The idea of a tornado here is almost exciting as they very rarely cause significant damage. However, when I lived in Oklahoma the thought of a tornado was terrifying.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Good points. The idea of a tornado here is almost exciting as they very rarely cause significant damage. However, when I lived in Oklahoma the thought of a tornado was terrifying.

Exactly. Perspective. I could never truly understand the second part you've mentioned. I could only try to imagine and if I said otherwise I would be disingenuous or lying. Those here who experienced the incredibly rare EF-3 tornado in 1972 may be able to. I suppose it's similar of the Columbus Day Storm. I wasn't alive for it, but if I had been perhaps the idea of a southerly wind storm might take me back to it and cause me to hate high winds. It's all about perspective.

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Barely any wind here today... partly cloudy and dry most of the afternoon.    Trajectory must be wrong for my area.   So disappointed!     Not really.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1998-99 was a great snow pack year. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

1998-99 was a great snow pack year. 

That was a fun few days leading up to Christmas... Until it warmed up and turned to rain for Christmas morning. 
 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

That was a fun few days leading up to Christmas... Until it warmed up and turned to rain for Christmas morning. 
 

A very nice cold snap. Sometimes that's how they roll... December 2013 was an example of another great cold snap that went out with a whimper. 

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A very nice cold snap. Sometimes that's how they roll... December 2013 was an example of another great cold snap that went out with a whimper. 

 

Indeed! Though Dec 1998 over-performed with snow in my area, was not supposed to get anything really during the onset of the cold but a miracle happened dumping 6-8” So it was nice having snow on the ground during the cold. Then a few inches during the overriding event at Christmas before the warmup. Dec 2013 featured that nice little overriding event as well but nothing really during the onset of the cold. 

7C2A1A98-C291-4387-A17A-EA37A4EBEA24.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Model trends centered at Day 3. This is to look at the ridge merger/evolving block, cut-off low north of Hawaii, and heights lowering in AB/BC. Note the ridge/block trending stronger and how we are relatively close to moving quickly into a very chilly to cold pattern. We can see how the GFS has strongly trended towards the EURO playing catch-up as well. 00z runs might be real good tonight!

 

GFS Past 6 runs

trend-gfs-2020101312-f078.500h_anom.na.gif

 

ECMWF Past 4 runs

trend-ecmwf-2020101312-f072.500h_anom.na.gif

 

EPS past 4 runs

trend-eps-2020101312-f072.500h_anom.na.gif

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Can't start model riding this early. It's like the NBA season, you have to conserve your energy. Still 6 weeks from playoff basketball. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Can't start model riding this early. It's like the NBA season, you have to conserve your energy. Still 6 weeks from playoff basketball. 

Yup. Like those first few games of the NFL season where you’re mostly playing teams from the other conference or other divisions. Can be positive trends to build on but also too early to be talking about the playoffs.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Yup. Like those first few games of the NFL season where you’re mostly playing teams from the other conference or other divisions. Can be positive trends to build on but also too early to be talking about the playoffs.

Playoffs?! Playoffs?! 

But seriously, when does college basketball start this year?! It is coming up isn't it!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Can't start model riding this early. It's like the NBA season, you have to conserve your energy. Still 6 weeks from playoff basketball. 

No model riding for events you don't deem worthy and please hate wind. Those are my notes from your LESSONS so far today Andrew. Am I getting the gist of it?

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

No model riding for events you don't deem worthy and please hate wind. Those are my notes from your LESSONS so far today Andrew. Am I getting the gist of it?

Essentially what you are noticing is there is a new GOD of weather up in here. 

 

But seriously. Do not waste your energy on October frost when the winter of dreams is your destiny. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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