Gradient Keeper Posted October 14, 2020 Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 12z GFS Day 6-10 Analog Composite 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 14, 2020 Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 12z ECMWF 500mb Height Anomaly. Uh oh! The mighty King EURO has been surpasses by the Canucks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 14, 2020 Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 [Model Countdown] Next up.... 18z NAM in 18 minutes This afternoon..... 18z GFS in 2 hours 5 minutes This evening.... 00z NAM in 6 hours 18 minutes Later this evening.... 00z GFS in 8 hours 5 minutes 00z CMC/GEM in 8 hours 37 minutes 00z ECMWF in 10 hours 22 minutes Later tonight.... 6z NAM in 12 hours 18 minutes Overnight.... 6z GFS in 14 hours 5 minutes Early Thursday morning.... 12z NAM in 18 hours 18 minutes Mid-late Thursday Morning.... 12z GFS in 20 hours 5 minutes 12z CMC/GEM in 18 hours 37 minutes 12z ECMWF in 22 hours 22 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 14, 2020 Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 36 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 12z GFS Day 6-10 Analog Composite 03 is a nice analog. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 14, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, Snowdrift said: 03 is a nice analog. Yup, some surprise Nov snow and plenty of action in late Dec into Jan regionally. This followed a 7-year stretch of absolute duds, by far the longest in EUG's history and it skews the records bigly. 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 14, 2020 Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 I enjoyed the dynamic nature of 03-04. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 14, 2020 Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 Oh crap! That's right. I'm not supposed to be model riding. It's safe to say I won't be able to follow such rules. Hi. My name is Rob and I'm an addict. 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 14, 2020 Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 60 degrees currently. Nice day. Going out to Anderson island this weekend...looking fairly dry with NW flow. Might get a bit of rain Sunday that’s about it. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 14, 2020 Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 1 hour ago, Eujunga said: I'll second that. 55º with sunshine and a few clouds here. To see that it's already 90º this morning at my old house in LA in an endless string of 90º+ days makes me very glad to be here! Late afternoon is nice. Soon we'll be in November where it's 90 during the day, but dark by the time you get home from work. (If not working from home due to COVID-19) 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 14, 2020 Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: OH MY GOD. Is that 10/24 or 12/14/2016?! This was mostly the theme for the puget sound area that winter. I did enjoy the fact that it snowed almost every single weekend in December but it was painful to watch it melt almost immediately each time. 2 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 14, 2020 Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 12z EPS 500m Height Anomaly. Uh oh! Are we losing the EURO already? It's not even Halloween. Winter cancel! It's okay. Decent. It's close to being very chilly. Fun times ahead and it's not even November. C'MON!!!! 18z GFS in 47 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 14, 2020 Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 Whatcom county getting some love from the gem even tho that is still cold rain. Excited tho for the winter 5 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 14, 2020 Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Whatcom county getting some love from the gem even tho that is still cold rain. Excited tho for the winter That looks FANTASTIC. 1 2 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 14, 2020 Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 As for 2003-04. That would be fine. Overall it was total garbage outside the Dec. 29-Jan 8 period. A minor November snow, and some seepage in BLI in late January. Spring torched. 2 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 14, 2020 Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: As for 2003-04. That would be fine. Overall it was total garbage outside the Dec. 29-Jan 8 period. A minor November snow, and some seepage in BLI in late January. Spring torched. Mmmmm... seepage. 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 14, 2020 Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 8 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Mmmmm... seepage. I ended up with more kids than anticipated because of that. 3 1 1 1 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 14, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 Up to 66F. Almost the same temp inside as outside. Feels like summer with a low sun angle. 2 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 14, 2020 Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 18z Running! 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted October 14, 2020 Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: 18z Running! I am. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 14, 2020 Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 First half of November looks decent on the 12z CFS. Some mountain snow too. 4 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 62/52 today. Was a pretty nice day. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 .29” on the day, 2.87” for the month, 45.13” on the year. High of 54. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 18z GEFS 10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly 00z NAM in 1 hour 26 minutes 00z GFS in 3 hours 13 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 Fox12 7-day Forecast KOMO 7-day Forecast 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 Looking like it might get chilly around here. All of the models are showing the PNA dropping into the -3.5 to -4.5 range next week. If we can get the surface gradients to go northerly which looks like a decent bet at this point we could see some double digit minus temperature departures with the solutions being depicted. 3 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 2 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Up to 66F. Almost the same temp inside as outside. Feels like summer with a low sun angle. 66 is a very cool day in the summer. 2 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 41 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Fox12 7-day Forecast KOMO 7-day Forecast Those lows temps look pretty lame. Typical at this stage of the game. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 4 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said: Late afternoon is nice. Soon we'll be in November where it's 90 during the day, but dark by the time you get home from work. (If not working from home due to COVID-19) One of the things that weirded me out about the weather the year I lived in the Bay Area was how warm it could be in October and November despite the days being so short. It just didn’t feel right. 2 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 My gut is sensing a November 1985 redux. 1 1 3 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 Look what’s back for another season!! 1 1 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 With all the wind talk these last couple of days, I'll share my windiest moment. This was at Cape Blanco 15-20 years ago. I randomly was staying in one of the park's cabins to go steelhead fishing the next day. We knew the forecast was uncertain and potentially stormy, but boy did it deliver the goods. Easy 80+ sustained winds. Gusts were actually kind of rare, the wind was just constant. No rain either. You could do really cool things like lean back into the wind like it was a seat, or lean forward at around a 45 degree angle. No debris, no danger, just fun. The pickup truck we arrived in was doing some frightening things, but we took it in stride. I did check the local news the next day and it had been one of the windiest days in years down there. I just got lucky. 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 29 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Nice to see, but it needs to be more blurry! I know it! For some reason the blurriness is gone! Must be Fred’s forum upgrade that did the trick. It will now be called the daily sharpness! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, MossMan said: I know it! For some reason the blurriness is gone! Must be Fred’s forum upgrade that did the trick. It will now be called the daily sharpness! Either that or you're gonna have to learn to blur in photoshop, or generic photoshop. I demand blur. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/10/07/world/september-temperature-record-copernicus-climate-scli-intl/index.html 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 Are la Nina's usually front loaded or back loaded? Or always loaded? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Are la Nina's usually front loaded or back loaded? Or always loaded? Seems like they've been mostly back loaded recently. Lots of cool, wet conditions March though May, but just a bit too warm to deliver the goods to the lowlands. Massive snowpacks in the mountains though. Hopefully, it'll be different this season. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 18 minutes ago, MossMan said: I know it! For some reason the blurriness is gone! Must be Fred’s forum upgrade that did the trick. It will now be called the daily sharpness! Fixed it for you. 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 15, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 14 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Are la Nina's usually front loaded or back loaded? Or always loaded? Yes and no 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 21 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Are la Nina's usually front loaded or back loaded? Or always loaded? That’s a loaded question... 1 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 1 hour ago, MossMan said: My gut is sensing a November 1985 redux. But Mossman, I thought such anomalous months were impossible in this new climate regime? I mean, we did just have February 2019 but that was a one off. Right? 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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