The Swamp Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 37 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Are la Nina's usually front loaded or back loaded? Or always loaded? Lumpy rain February - April 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 What a nice day. Morning showers then a mix of clouds and sun in the afternoon. 61/49. Already down to 53 out there, so easily the coolest evening of the fall so far. Could set a new daily low by midnight. Nice to have that autumn chill in the air. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 41 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Are la Nina's usually front loaded or back loaded? Or always loaded? Back loaded in the sense that it's pretty unusual to not see sustained troughing February-April in a stronger La Nina. That's the period that's most certain to deliver from a cold anomaly perspective. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Jesse said: What a nice day. Morning showers then a mix of clouds and sun in the afternoon. 61/49. Already down to 53 out there, so easily the coolest evening of the fall so far. Could set a new daily low by midnight. Nice to have that autumn chill in the air. Should be our first 30s party tonight. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 1 hour ago, MossMan said: Look what’s back for another season!! Heck ya! 00z GFS in 9 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 I can’t wait for the time change so we get earlier model runs. snow. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 00z GFS Ridge merger begins in just 24-30 hours. C'MON!!!! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 Just now, FroYoBro said: I can’t wait for the time change so we get earlier model runs. snow. No doubt! 00z GFS at 7:28 PM GEFS 9 PM, ECMWF 9:45 PM and runs finishing before midnight. Yes! C'MON!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 CPC analogs for day 6-10 show 2003 twice, 1990, and 1985. And also 1991 twice, FWIW. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 52 degrees now. Should end up with a midnight low and the coldest morning of the season so far tomorrow. It had already froze once by this time last year...and had 5 lows in the 30s. Currently our coldest low so far this season is 47. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 00z GFS Day 4, 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 11 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: CPC analogs for day 6-10 show 2003 twice, 1990, and 1985. And also 1991 twice, FWIW. Late October 1991 was pretty fun. All downhill from there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 00z GFS Day 6, 7 ... The best chilly stuff sliding off to the east. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Late October 1991 was pretty fun. All downhill from there. Halloween blizzard in Minnesota that year too. Almost 4 feet of snow in places. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, iFred said: January 1950 Sorry Tri Cities. 1 2 2 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, iFred said: January 1950 I would call a state of emergency now just to prepare. God save us all. 1 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 14 minutes ago, iFred said: February 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 16 minutes ago, iFred said: February Snowy redwoods? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 We ALL may find out this January that there is indeed such a thing as too much of a good thing. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 21 minutes ago, iFred said: February EPS monthlies had me in the dark green last fall. Dagger to the heart. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 Ya all beat me to it. The whole winter (Dec-Feb) shows above normal! 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 The GFS is more progressive than Bernie and AOC combined. What else is new. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 00z GFS 10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 Temp 48.6. My low temp this morning was 49.1 Winter is near! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 00z GFS 10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly It wants to drop the hammer sooooo bad lol 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 00z GEM Block developing even further west than 12z run. Day 4, 5, 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 00z GEM Day 7 12z Day 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 This GEM run is going to look nutty. Cold pool is deeper and block is in the perfect position. True eye candy 1 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: This GEM run is going to look nutty. Cold pool is deeper and block is in the perfect position. True eye candy Not to be a deb, but it looks more progressive to me than the 12z despite a westward shift in the GOA ridge. Positively tilted wave axis early on. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Phil said: Not to be a deb, but if looks more progressive to me than the 12z. Positively tilted ridge axis. Yeah it doesn't get the true cold south of the border, but it displaces the North Pole over Canada. Almost sub-500dam heights in the prairie... Super fun to look at 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Yeah it doesn't get the true cold south of the border, but it displaces the North Pole over Canada. Almost sub-500dam heights in the prairie... Super fun to look at That’s true. Cold pool is farther south. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 ICON is also on board for a solid cold shot. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 CMC might actually pull it off. A bit of a head scratcher, but it works. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 52 minutes ago, iFred said: January 1950 Won't be 2020 anymore. Maybe some normalcy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 00z GEM 10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly. Almost gets there. Northern Washington might be fun. Eager to see the EURO later. C'MON!!!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 46 minutes ago, Phil said: The GFS is more progressive than Bernie and AOC combined. What else is new. Most definitely when compared to the EURO Op/EPS, GEM/CMCE the GFS and GEFS are far more progressive. 00z ECMWF in 16 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 00z GEFS 10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly. As mentioned the GFS/GEFS remains more progressive than other models. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 Down to 45. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 15, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 46F and pleasant. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said: 46F and pleasant. Exactly like a summer evening but with higher moon angles. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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