Gradient Keeper Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 3 hours ago, Jbolin said: Which one? Either of those. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 6:16 AM near West Gresham: Temp 39.0 brrrrrrrr! 6z GFS Ensembles were chilly. Note how many members for Portland/Seattle down to -0c to -5c with a few sneaking towards -8c and for Yakima/Columbia Basin even colder. C'MON!!!! Portland Seattle Yakima 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 43 this morning...may drop a degree or two before sunrise. Coldest we’ve been since early May as well. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 6 hours ago, DJ Droppin said: NEXT Saturday looks a bit breezy. Of course this won't happen, right? Holy lol. First January 2021 and now this? Wild times. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 Good morning It's time for your Thursday morning [Model Countdown] 12z GFS in 1 hour 53 minutes 12z GEM/CMC in 2 hours 25 minutes 12z ECMWF in 4 hours 10 minutes Here we go! Buckle up! C'MON!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 It was nice to see the car say 42 in Troutdale. Perfect after work weather. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsktkr Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 It's actually 37 on my back deck right now. Obviously my low so far for the season here in Mac. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 Less than two days ago it appeared we would have to wait until early next week to get our first chilly night out of this and then last night / this morning happened. Lots of 30s around the area. Currently 40 IMBY. On another note the 6z and its ensemble are the coldest GFS run yet for the coming cold snap. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 7 hours ago, DJ Droppin said: Light snow for Bellingham! Just 9-10 days away! I’m in the first shade of color!!! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 26 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Good morning It's time for your Thursday morning [Model Countdown] 12z GFS in 1 hour 53 minutes 12z GEM/CMC in 2 hours 25 minutes 12z ECMWF in 4 hours 10 minutes Here we go! Buckle up! C'MON!!!! Nice work night shift! That night shift picture on your profile is amazing. 2 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 Had a low of 43. Currently 46. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 Down to 39 here. Niiiiicccccccceeeeee. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 First 30s at SLE too. 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 42 this morning, I suppose I should think about bumping the heat on for a bit, looks like its about 63 in the house LOL 1 1 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 The Blob. https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/10/our-mornings-have-been-warm-blame-blob.html?m=1 2 1 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 8 hours ago, iFred said: x y? 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 7 hours ago, DJ Droppin said: Light snow for Bellingham! Just 9-10 days away! Happened in 1991 (on the 28th), could happen again. We shall see. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 30 day SOI is the highest since 2011. La Niña definitely taking hold. 1 2 1 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 18 minutes ago, MossMan said: The Blob. https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/10/our-mornings-have-been-warm-blame-blob.html?m=1 Take this blob and shove it. I know it's a bad dad joke but I'm not sorry....had to be done. 1 3 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 29 minutes ago, MossMan said: The Blob. https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/10/our-mornings-have-been-warm-blame-blob.html?m=1 I think it’s become trendy to blame any weather pattern that has a tendency for warm nights lately on “the blob”. When in reality it’s likely a part of the bigger picture of having warmer patterns in general thanks to a warming climate, with the added factor of UHI. Average low temps were actually closer to normal this summer than previous years, and our SSTs directly offshore have been below average at times. Doesn’t sound too blobby. 4 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 Got down to 38 here before the fog formed. Coldest low temp since early May. Glad the blob decided to take a night off. 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 58 minutes ago, MossMan said: Had a low of 43. Currently 46. 45 after a low of 43 here. Still have yet to get below the 40 mark this season. Last year at this time, I had already recorded a couple frosts. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 Really happy to see these cool nights. Should get the fall color going. They’ve been good at higher elevations this year so far, but kind of a dud in the lowlands. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: 45 after a low of 43 here. Still have yet to get below the 40 mark this season. Last year at this time, I had already recorded a couple frosts. I had already been in the 20’s by now last year. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 14 minutes ago, Jesse said: I think it’s become trendy to blame any weather pattern that has a tendency for warm nights lately on “the blob”. When in reality it’s probably a part of the larger picture of having warmer patterns in general thanks to a warming climate, with the added factor of UHI. Average low temps were actually closer to normal this summer than previous years, and our SSTs directly offshore have been below average at times. Doesn’t sound too blobby. This 100%. The blob is a cop out. I’ve also been doing some research on UHI here over the last 75 years, and ffs it’s even worse than I thought. The exact same upper level airmass (per reanalyses) can produce lows up to 10 degrees warmer @ DCA versus the 1940s. What’s the point of maintaining climate records at these locations? They don’t reflect large scale conditions *at all*. Dulles used to run 2-5 degrees cooler than here in the morning..now we run neck and neck, sometimes cooler. Recently I’ve had low temperatures running a whopping 12-13 degrees cooler than DCA, and they’re 8 miles from here. If I didn’t live in an environmentally protected location, I might be oblivious to all this. UHI has to be a massive problem at so many measuring locations across the country. 4 1 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 46 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: 45 after a low of 43 here. Still have yet to get below the 40 mark this season. Last year at this time, I had already recorded a couple frosts. 40 minutes ago, MossMan said: I had already been in the 20’s by now last year. Keep in mind last year was one of our chilliest October’s on record, while this year has been running as one of our warmest so far. So comparing the two is comparing both extremes. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 It’s over. https://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/cold-and-wet-noaas-winter-outlook-for-northwest-a-snow-lovers-dream 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 37 for a low this morning, nice and crisp! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, MossMan said: It’s over. https://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/cold-and-wet-noaas-winter-outlook-for-northwest-a-snow-lovers-dream For once they didn’t paint the entire country red. If anything they might actually be underestimating the eastern blowtorch. Gonna be one for the ages. 1 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, Phil said: UHI has to be a massive problem at so many measuring locations across the country. There’s not much of a UHI at MossMan’s place, and he’s been recording a mild October, too. I would bet this also applies for most other rural stations in western Washington. 2 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: There’s not much of a UHI at MossMan’s place, and he’s been recording a mild October, too. I would bet this also applies for most other rural stations in western Washington. We've had lots of warm weather patterns this month, up until the last couple days. And the fact that Cliff is leaning on the UHI tainted SEA to make his blob points sort of says it all. Not a single mention of the well documented UHI at that station in his blog. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, Jesse said: We've had lots of warm weather patterns this month, up until the last couple days. And the fact that Cliff is leaning on the UHI tainted SEA to make his blob points sort of says it all. Not a single mention of the well documented UHI at that station in his blog. We are tied with Oct 1988 currently for warmest Oct ever recorded here in Tahoe. It's actually amazing how similar this summer/fall is matching the summer and fall of 1988. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 47 here this morning... it was cloudy all night but clearing up now. 3 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said: There’s not much of a UHI at MossMan’s place, and he’s been recording a mild October, too. I would bet this also applies for most other rural stations in western Washington. That’s because it has indeed been mild out there. Upper level temperatures for the month (to date) are amongst the top-10 warmest on record. I’m not blaming all (or even most) of the warming on UHI. The extreme cases I mentioned only occur on very calm nights with excellent radiational cooling conditions. But there’s no doubt it’s a factor..more so in some places than others, of course. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Phil said: That’s because it has indeed been mild out there. Upper level temperatures for the month (to date) are amongst the top-10 warmest on record. So then, what would be the cause of this mildness, if not the Blob? 1 1 2 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said: So then, what would be the cause of this mildness, if not the Blob? A warm weather pattern. 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: So then, what would be the cause of this mildness, if not the Blob? Uh..the weather pattern? Potent upper level ridging has dominated most of the month. And that’s not forced by the blob. It’s connected to Indo-China convective forcing, AAM transfer, and the seasonal evolution of the wavetrain. For starters. 3 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, Phil said: Uh..the weather pattern? Potent upper level ridging has dominated most of the month. And that’s not forced by the blob. It’s connected to Indo-China convective forcing, AAM transfer, and the seasonal evolution of the wavetrain. For starters. Is not the Blob in fact forced by those same patterns? And would it not in turn have an effect on the lower atmosphere? 1 2 1 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Is not the Blob in fact forced by those same patterns? And would it not in turn have an effect on the lower atmosphere? Yes the blob is forced externally, but it’s difficult to find statistically significant correlations between surface temperatures & SSTAs away from the immediate coast. There are so many factors that go into the evolution of boundary layer temps..ie: how warm/cold are the source regions of advection, pressure gradients/upper level conditions, clouds/solar radiation, land use changes, and yes, SSTs. 3 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 We ended up bottoming out at 37 this morning. Easily our latest first 30s since I’ve lived here. 2 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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