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October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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Less than two days ago it appeared we would have to wait until early next week to get our first chilly night out of this and then last night / this morning happened.  Lots of 30s around the area.  Currently 40 IMBY.  On another note the 6z and its ensemble are the coldest GFS run yet for the coming cold snap.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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26 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Good morning

It's time for your Thursday morning [Model Countdown]

12z GFS in 1 hour 53 minutes

12z GEM/CMC in 2 hours 25 minutes

12z ECMWF in 4 hours 10 minutes

 

Here we go! Buckle up! C'MON!!!!

Nice work night shift! That night shift picture on your profile is amazing. 

  • Snow 2

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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First 30s at SLE too.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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18 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Take this blob and shove it.

 

I know it's a bad dad joke but I'm not sorry....had to be done.

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29 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I think it’s become trendy to blame any weather pattern that has a tendency for warm nights lately on “the blob”. When in reality it’s likely a part of the bigger picture of having warmer patterns in general thanks to a warming climate, with the added factor of UHI.

Average low temps were actually closer to normal this summer than previous years, and our SSTs directly offshore have been below average at times. Doesn’t sound too blobby.

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5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

45 after a low of 43 here. Still have yet to get below the 40 mark this season. Last year at this time, I had already recorded a couple frosts.

I had already been in the 20’s by now last year. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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14 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I think it’s become trendy to blame any weather pattern that has a tendency for warm nights lately on “the blob”. When in reality it’s probably a part of the larger picture of having warmer patterns in general thanks to a warming climate, with the added factor of UHI.

Average low temps were actually closer to normal this summer than previous years, and our SSTs directly offshore have been below average at times. Doesn’t sound too blobby.

This 100%. The blob is a cop out.

I’ve also been doing some research on UHI here over the last 75 years, and ffs it’s even worse than I thought. The exact same upper level airmass (per reanalyses) can produce lows up to 10 degrees warmer @ DCA versus the 1940s. 

What’s the point of maintaining climate records at these locations? They don’t reflect large scale conditions *at all*. Dulles used to run 2-5 degrees cooler than here in the morning..now we run neck and neck, sometimes cooler. Recently I’ve had low temperatures running a whopping 12-13 degrees cooler than DCA, and they’re 8 miles from here. If I didn’t live in an environmentally protected location, I might be oblivious to all this.

UHI has to be a massive problem at so many measuring locations across the country.

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46 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

45 after a low of 43 here. Still have yet to get below the 40 mark this season. Last year at this time, I had already recorded a couple frosts.

 

40 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I had already been in the 20’s by now last year. 

Keep in mind last year was one of our chilliest October’s on record, while this year has been running as one of our warmest so far. So comparing the two is comparing both extremes.

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4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

For once they didn’t paint the entire country red. 😱

If anything they might actually be underestimating the eastern blowtorch. Gonna be one for the ages.

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8 minutes ago, Phil said:

UHI has to be a massive problem at so many measuring locations across the country.

There’s not much of a UHI at MossMan’s place, and he’s been recording a mild October, too. I would bet this also applies for most other rural stations in western Washington.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

There’s not much of a UHI at MossMan’s place, and he’s been recording a mild October, too. I would bet this also applies for most other rural stations in western Washington.

We've had lots of warm weather patterns this month, up until the last couple days.

And the fact that Cliff is leaning on the UHI tainted SEA to make his blob points sort of says it all. Not a single mention of the well documented UHI at that station in his blog. 

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4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

We've had lots of warm weather patterns this month, up until the last couple days.

And the fact that Cliff is leaning on the UHI tainted SEA to make his blob points sort of says it all. Not a single mention of the well documented UHI at that station in his blog. 

We are tied with Oct 1988 currently for warmest Oct ever recorded here in Tahoe. It's actually amazing how similar this summer/fall  is matching the summer and fall of 1988.  

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Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

There’s not much of a UHI at MossMan’s place, and he’s been recording a mild October, too. I would bet this also applies for most other rural stations in western Washington.

That’s because it has indeed been mild out there. Upper level temperatures for the month (to date) are amongst the top-10 warmest on record.

I’m not blaming all (or even most) of the warming on UHI. The extreme cases I mentioned only occur on very calm nights with excellent radiational cooling conditions. But there’s no doubt it’s a factor..more so in some places than others, of course.

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4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

So then, what would be the cause of this mildness, if not the Blob?

Uh..the weather pattern? Potent upper level ridging has dominated most of the month. And that’s not forced by the blob.

It’s connected to Indo-China convective forcing, AAM transfer, and the seasonal evolution of the wavetrain. For starters.
 

 

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Uh..the weather pattern? Potent upper level ridging has dominated most of the month. And that’s not forced by the blob.

It’s connected to Indo-China convective forcing, AAM transfer, and the seasonal evolution of the wavetrain. For starters.

Is not the Blob in fact forced by those same patterns? And would it not in turn have an effect on the lower atmosphere?

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Is not the Blob in fact forced by those same patterns? And would it not in turn have an effect on the lower atmosphere?

Yes the blob is forced externally, but it’s difficult to find statistically significant correlations between surface temperatures & SSTAs away from the immediate coast. There are so many factors that go into the evolution of boundary layer temps..ie: how warm/cold are the source regions of advection, pressure gradients/upper level conditions, clouds/solar radiation, land use changes, and yes, SSTs. 

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We ended up bottoming out at 37 this morning. Easily our latest first 30s since I’ve lived here. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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