The last 2 months have already established a warm CONUS pattern which, when manifesting during post-niño springs, almost always precedes warm summers nationally.
This bears striking resemblance to spring 2010. Only difference is cool anomalies aren’t as prevalent.
This would be a closer match to 2010 than 2012. Because 2012 wasn’t coming off a strong niño, where-as there are still niño-like elements to the current base state (albeit attenuating).
Of course there will be subseasonal scale differences as well. Unwise to project from any analog pool alone.
You don’t have a point. The context was *leaving town* on a day with desirable weather, to a destination with more desirable weather. Not *returning home* to desirable weather.
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