October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

After all the pictures I found of that area, didn't think they'd have a section left of Santiam that isn't an apocalyptic wasteland. 

This was the extreme western extent of the fire. There were lot of homes burned on the north bank from Mehama East. 

[BLI snowman]

27 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

92 in Brookings right now.

72 here with swarms of box elder bugs which can get in the house through the window sills.

Those things are literal Satan spawns.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Gorgeous evening on the North Fork Santiam River. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

73F and beautiful today. +4.5F on the day so we keep the streak in tact. Not a single below normal reading in October.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty good looking 18z run to say the least.  The models are really having problems with this pattern evolution.  Even the warmest looking runs of the various models show a fabulous scenario for frosty nights.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

9 hours ago, Phil said:

It’s the cold (and/or dry) NW winds that cripple them here, more-so than temperatures. Even during mildish winters it has a visible effect. The ones planted in sheltered locations do much better. And the warm/wet summers usually revive them after they emerge from the winter looking sickly. 

But when it does drop to zero (once every 3-5 winters or so) the wind is guaranteed to be throwing a temper tantrum, and pretty much all of the palms wilt and die unless it’s a quick hitter.

Yet people still try.  

Yeah, they're not a fan of dry in general. They seem to do better when it's cold/snow than cold/dry. Makes sense considering they come from the moist slopes of the Himalayas. Supposedly they've survived temperatures down to -17F in Bulgaria. I've seen lots of people buy them here and plant them thinking they're drought-resistant California fan palms and not water them in the summer only for them to struggle until fall. It's probably double-bad where you live, because they don't like hot/humid conditions much either so the growing season would be pretty short.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

There was a lot of rain up here on this day in 2003.

[Phil]

6 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Phil!

The 12Z ECMWF is calling your name...

Wasted at this time of year.

[Jesse]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

73F and beautiful today. +4.5F on the day so we keep the streak in tact. Not a single below normal reading in October.

Yesterday was below average at EUG.

[MossMan]

High of 57. Currently 56. 
.84” on the day, 3.71” for the month, 45.97” on the year. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

73F and beautiful today. +4.5F on the day so we keep the streak in tact. Not a single below normal reading in October.

Looks pretty warm there for this time of year.

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Gorgeous evening on the North Fork Santiam River. 

Wish I could be there.

[jakeinthevalley]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Gorgeous afternoon. Found an open campground on the Linn County side of the Santiam. 

John Neal Park?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, jakeinthevalley said:

John Neal Park?

Yes. The wife wanted to get out and do one more camping trip. Just for a night, so conveniently close to home, and great for kids.

[jakeinthevalley]

19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yes. The wife wanted to get out and do one more camping trip. Just for a night, so conveniently close to home, and great for kids.

Should still be a bunch of frogs in the ponds if you have a flashlight.

Literally across the river, where the Little N. Fork comes in, many homes were lost, including a close friend's

[El_Nina]

26 minutes ago, jakeinthevalley said:

Should still be a bunch of frogs in the ponds if you have a flashlight.

Literally across the river, where the Little N. Fork comes in, many homes were lost, including a close friend's

From flooding. 

[jakeinthevalley]

3 minutes ago, El_Nina said:

From flooding. 

Uhhh.....Fire?!

[jakeinthevalley]

9 minutes ago, jakeinthevalley said:

Uhhh.....Fire?!

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My step mother has a relative on Jennie rd. Her relatives home did not burn, but many many did. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is across the river from John Neal. Looking toward the north bank. You can see the fire burned to the river. The home on the high bank to the left survived luckily. I have some pics of burned homes on Jennie rd, but I don’t really want to post them. It’s amazing how the grass has already grown back and is a carpet of green. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

4 hours ago, Eujunga said:

92 in Brookings right now.

72 here with swarms of box elder bugs which can get in the house through the window sills.

Why doesn't Eureka get the Brookings effect?

[jakeinthevalley]

15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This is across the river from John Neal. Looking toward the north bank. You can see the fire burned to the river. The home on the high bank to the left survived luckily. I have some pics of burned homes on Jennie rd, but I don’t really want to post them. It’s amazing how the grass has already grown back and is a carpet of green. 

I have some people from HS who lost homes on Jennie Rd. Some that didn't.

The house in the pic is off Riverwood Dr where quite a few homes (including our friend's) were lost.

Luckily that was a vacation cabin and not primary.

Enjoy your camping trip

[jakeinthevalley]

10 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Why doesn't Eureka get the Brookings effect?

Because it is about 60 miles south of 3k' hills that cause the downsloping winds and compression heating.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS trying to give us some backdoor action

 

Day 7

[Jesse]

64/42 day here. Clear in the early morning but partly to mostly cloudy most of the daylight hours.

Mostly cloudy and 58 currently. Looks like we are heading into another stretch of mildish lows through early next week.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7.5 brrrrr!

[Gradient Keeper]

A touch colder yet HR 186. C'MON!!!!

 

Day 8.5 chilly

[Gradient Keeper]

Hmmm!

 

00z ECMWF in 1 hours 15 minutes

[Jesse]

Interesting to see the GFS trend so much colder again. Models seem to be really struggling with the pattern lately.

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Jesse said:

Interesting to see the GFS trend so much colder again. Models seem to be really struggling with the pattern lately.

Yeah, definite model "noise" to say the least.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM Day 7 tried to drop the hammer on us, and we turn chilly, but the brunt of the cold/arctic trough slides to the east. Close though!

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Ensembles have improved also

 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Ensembles

Yakima

Pretty decent cold shot for the Columbia Basin for late October. Lots of members -5c to -9c. C'MON!!!!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 hours ago, Jesse said:

Yesterday was below average at EUG.

Was +0.2F downtown.

[snow_wizard]

Totally amazing 0z run.  The cold is back and it happens sooner than the earlier runs that were cold.  Usually when the models keep resurrecting a cold wave like this it eventually ends up happening.  Last night the only thing we had going for us was the Canadian, but now we have the GFS and GFS ensemble.  The GFS ensemble mean bottoms out just below -2 on the 850s and the operational bottoms out at -4.  Pretty solid cold for this early.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GFS Ensembles

Yakima

Pretty decent cold shot for the Columbia Basin for late October. Lots of members -5c to -9c. C'MON!!!!

It is very noteworthy how strongly the GFS is jumping on this now and moves up the timing.  Really good signs.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Way colder

[rsktkr]

What the heck happened here?!?!?

 

[snow_wizard]

As cold as the GFS is the GEM is even colder.  The evolution is remarkably similar on the two models.  If the details were to play out correctly o the modeled pattern we could see some big time below normal temps.  Certainly potential for daily averages over 10 degrees below normal if we can get a clear night in there.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ICON is also similar