Gradient Keeper Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: Still early. Some frost would be nice. Indeed and indeed. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Day 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 3 Oh wow, we’re really doing it! 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 32 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: So tantalizingly close to greatness.... Agonizing. We still might get there, but I wouldn't expect it. 6z NAM in 2 hours 3 minutes Looks pretty good to me. It's not even the end of the month. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Day 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Being real these solutions tonight are probably a top 5% cold wave for this early in the season. Not sure how anyone could be even the slightest bit disappointed. 2 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 00z GFS Ensembles (850s / Precip) Portland Seattle Yakima Bozeman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Day 5 - Euro trending more favorably it seems 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Day 6 C'MON!!!! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 1949/50. Book it. 3 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 I'm off to bed. Someone else please post Day 7-10. Thanks. ...................................................................................................... ...................................................... ..................... Just kidding. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Day 7 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 8 minutes ago, MossMan said: 1949/50. Book it. Bring it 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Looking chilly. 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Sooooo closeeee to COLD 6z GFS in 2 hours 49 minutes 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Very real potential for record lows around day 5 with the ECMWF solution. Continental cold airmass in place with perfect surface pressure gradients. 1 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 7 Day Snowfall Totals 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Sooooo closeeee to COLD 6z GFS in 2 hours 49 minutes It is cold. 1 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 1 minute ago, Jesse said: Looking chilly. Time to turn the heat on. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Just now, snow_wizard said: It is cold. Yes, but I'm talking 850s -10c.... Do I dare say ....... .... Colder runs ahead? Super jinx potential. 12z GFS in 8 hours 46 minutes 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Cold! 3 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Down to 46. Cold air is ahead of schedule! 1 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Two separate cold shots this early. That is VERY impressive. 2 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Yes, but I'm talking 850s -10c.... Do I dare say ....... .... Colder runs ahead? Super jinx potential. 12z GFS in 8 hours 46 minutes Not out of the question I suppose. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Day 8 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Pattern sets up upstream in just 2.5 to 3 days. What last minute/second changes will be revealed. Great question. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Pretty classic situation for impressive low temps with both cold shots. The offshore part of the surface high complex is so strong it deadens the east winds, but doesn't kill the offshore flow entirely. Perfect mix. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 8 That's the pattern that October 1916 went into after the initial cold shot. That month had the most impressive streak of cold mins on record for October. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Day 9er 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Wonder what the record low 850mb temp is at SLE in October. I bet it’s not much below -5C. The late October 2006 cold snap had some very impressive lows, but was maybe -2C at 850mb over SLE. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Jim is on board. 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Day 10 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Wow! The ECMWF spits out a high of 43 for SEA on Friday. It also goes for a low of 26 for McChord a couple of days later, 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Wonder what the record low 850mb temp is at SLE in October. I bet it’s not much below -5C. The late October 2006 cold snap had some very impressive lows, but was maybe -2C at 850mb over SLE. That 2006 thing was really interesting. It was a classic clipper and brought in a lot of low level cold air. There were some all time record lows for the month of October in this general area with that. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: That 2006 thing was really interesting. It was a classic clipper and brought in a lot of low level cold air. There were some all time record lows for the month of October in this general area with that. Eugene hit 16 or 17 with that. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Blocking is alive and well. 1 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 11202020 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Exhausted. Good night. Root for COLD 6z, 12z runs! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 The EPS is fully on board with the second cold shot now. Dramatic improvement from previous runs. This should satisfy our cold craving until the big stuff comes later. As I've mentioned before La Nina Octobers that manage to pull off significant cold waves are almost without fail very solid winters. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Blocking is alive and well. This kind of makes you wonder what kind of blocking we may see in the dead of winter. 2 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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