SouthHillFrosty Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The EPS is fully on board with the second cold shot now. Dramatic improvement from previous runs. This should satisfy our cold craving until the big stuff comes later. As I've mentioned before La Nina Octobers that manage to pull off significant cold waves are almost without fail very solid winters. Imagine if this was two months later. Cheers to the future snow maps 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 27 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Imagine if this was two months later. Cheers to the future snow maps This could be something like the October 1949 cold wave, but just a week or so later. Could mean something. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 18, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 We were all super excited about the the cold Oct and late Nov last year and it ended up being the worst winter since I moved to Oregon in 1989. Still way too early. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said: We were all super excited about the the cold Oct and late Nov last year and it ended up being the worst winter since I moved to Oregon in 1989. Still way too early. While it is true that there is no way of telling what the winter will be like based off the weather in October, it is also important to consider that SST's are much different than last year, and therefore the atmosphere will react differently and tend towards different patterns. 1 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 18, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 At the very least we should hopefully see our first freeze soon. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 51 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: We were all super excited about the the cold Oct and late Nov last year and it ended up being the worst winter since I moved to Oregon in 1989. Still way too early. Yes, October cold isn’t any indication of anything. However, last year wasn’t a Nina so we’ll have to see how things plays out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 4 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: We were all super excited about the the cold Oct and late Nov last year and it ended up being the worst winter since I moved to Oregon in 1989. Still way too early. That is true enough for western Oregon, but from Seattle north it actually wasn’t a half-bad winter, snow-wise. And there is no real reason to suspect points south will necessarily get skunked this year like they were last. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Early-season cold snaps are associated with bust winters in El Niño years, simply because those tend to be back-loaded with the characteristic mildness and dryness. The association, in other words, is between El Niño and bust winters. This is not an El Niño year. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 7 hours ago, snow_wizard said: That's the pattern that October 1916 went into after the initial cold shot. That month had the most impressive streak of cold mins on record for October. How does this potential cold compare to the cold we saw last October? Seems like last October’s cold records would be hard to beat. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Low of 52 this morning...56 currently with breezy SW winds. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 8 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said: It was supposed to be closest last Tuesday. Seems to have a pinkish glow. I was trying to figure out why that star was different in the night sky last week while visiting the Lava Beds area. At first I thought smoke was causing the reddish orange glow. Pretty cool sight and it really stood out! 54* Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 I wonder what the pattern was on 10/31/1935. SLE scored 5" of snow that day. With a 42/31 spread. Next day was 38/14, and then a low of 12 on the 3rd. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Looks like Portland (Downtown) had 0.6" of snow on 10/29/1935, but none on the 31st. They did have a 35/29 spread that day. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Some haze from people burning yesterday still here this morning. Hoping for some orographically enhanced light showers today, not looking like much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 32 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I wonder what the pattern was on 10/31/1935. SLE scored 5" of snow that day. With a 42/31 spread. Next day was 38/14, and then a low of 12 on the 3rd. That is some impressive stuff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 6 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: That is some impressive stuff. Thank you. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 No NAM maps. Feels like Rob is slacking a little. 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Breezy and rainy here. Finally getting some rainfall here in the rain shadow. 3 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Well alrighty then... 1.30” so far on the day, 5.05” for the month. 47 and raining currently. 1 4 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, MossMan said: Well alrighty then... 1.30” so far on the day, 5.05” for the month. 47 and raining currently. 11th day in a row here with measurable rain. We are solidly back in that nasty NW flow pattern which just pounds your area and my area while shadowing the Seattle and Portland areas. 1 4 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Moss man dumps his vodka in the gauge before taking official measurements. 1 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 What was November of ‘49 like? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 22 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: No NAM maps. Feels like Rob is slacking a little. Probably napping. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 10 minutes ago, MossMan said: Well alrighty then... 1.30” so far on the day, 5.05” for the month. 47 and raining currently. 1.04" here today so far, 5.62" for the month, 50.39" for the year. 50 now and raining. I may have done my last mowing without roostertails. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I wonder what the pattern was on 10/31/1935. SLE scored 5" of snow that day. With a 42/31 spread. Next day was 38/14, and then a low of 12 on the 3rd. That's the GOAT October airmass and is pretty unrivaled. Think 2003 on steroids. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randyc321 Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 11th day in a row here with measurable rain. We are solidly back in that nasty NW flow pattern which just pounds your area and my area while shadowing the Seattle and Portland areas. Which really sucks for us shadowed folks when its falling as snow. Seems frequent. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Up to 0.02” today....2.80” for October. Getting some gusts close to 30mph this morning too. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 1935 numbers: Downtown Seattle 10/29: 38/32 10/30: 35/31 Trace of snow 10/31: 42/30 Trace of snow 11/1: 39/27 11/2: 40/26 11/3: 44/29 Downtown Portland 10/29: 40/33 0.6" of snow 10/30: 37/29 Trace of snow 10/31: 35/29 Trace of snow 11/1: 37/29 11/2: 39/29 11/3: 41/23 Corvallis and Salem both had 5" of snow with the arctic front on the 31st. Strong gorge outflow that day left the Portland area high and dry. 1935-36 was a fascinating cold season, with the extreme early season event and then the extreme late season event at the end of March that produced 5" of snow on April 1 in Portland. Not to mention the coldest February of the last century. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Is Rob going to miss the 12z GFS? SOMEONE CALL HIM! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: 1935 numbers: Downtown Seattle 10/29: 38/32 10/30: 35/31 Trace of snow 10/31: 42/30 Trace of snow 11/1: 39/27 11/2: 40/26 11/3: 44/29 Downtown Portland 10/29: 40/33 0.6" of snow 10/30: 37/29 Trace of snow 10/31: 35/29 Trace of snow 11/1: 37/29 11/2: 39/29 11/3: 41/23 Corvallis and Salem both had 5" of snow with the arctic front on the 31st. Strong gorge outflow that day left the Portland area high and dry. 1935-36 was a fascinating cold season, with the extreme early season event and then the extreme late season event at the end of March that produced 5" of snow on April 1 in Portland. Not to mention the coldest February of the last century. A high of 35 in Portland on Halloween is insane. Bet that isn’t happening in our lifetime. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 9 minutes ago, Randyc321 said: Which really sucks for us shadowed folks when its falling as snow. Seems frequent. Beinbridge is actually most profoundly shadowed by a zonal (westerly) flow. Often ends up in a blue hole on such days. NW flow is nowhere near as dry for you. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 13 minutes ago, Randyc321 said: Which really sucks for us shadowed folks when its falling as snow. Seems frequent. Yeah... that can happen too. The current pattern is a classic example where the areas to the north and east of Seattle get pounded while many other places are dry. Its very similar to what happened during the first part of February this year when we had lots of flooding out here. Personally speaking... its my least favorite pattern during the rainy season. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 31 minutes ago, MossMan said: Well alrighty then... 1.30” so far on the day, 5.05” for the month. 47 and raining currently. Spread some of the wealth!! I feel as if there is no transition between seasons here. It's going straight from dry to cold. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Not sure if this was posted... but the 00Z ECMWF did show lowland snow and just buried the WA Cascades. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 10 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: 1935 numbers: Downtown Seattle 10/29: 38/32 10/30: 35/31 Trace of snow 10/31: 42/30 Trace of snow 11/1: 39/27 11/2: 40/26 11/3: 44/29 Downtown Portland 10/29: 40/33 0.6" of snow 10/30: 37/29 Trace of snow 10/31: 35/29 Trace of snow 11/1: 37/29 11/2: 39/29 11/3: 41/23 Corvallis and Salem both had 5" of snow with the arctic front on the 31st. Strong gorge outflow that day left the Portland area high and dry. 1935-36 was a fascinating cold season, with the extreme early season event and then the extreme late season event at the end of March that produced 5" of snow on April 1 in Portland. Not to mention the coldest February of the last century. I’ve always favored cold seasons that have stamina. I would sacrifice a signature event for a consistency and length. Would be nice if this winter was not totally backloaded. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 6 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: A high of 35 in Portland on Halloween is insane. Bet that isn’t happening in our lifetime. Next coldest October event produced a high of 43, so it's a pretty massive outlier. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 20 minutes ago, Randyc321 said: Which really sucks for us shadowed folks when its falling as snow. Seems frequent. Extremely frustrating I might add!!!!! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randyc321 Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Not sure if this was posted... but the 00Z ECMWF did show lowland snow and just buried the WA Cascades. Just some cold will feel nice. I am honestly ready for some nice crappy weather. Its been a nice transition to Fall so far, but bring on some storms! 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, Randyc321 said: Just some cold will feel nice. I am honestly ready for some nice crappy weather. Its been a nice transition to Fall so far, but bring on some storms! Ironically... the Friday event will probably kick off a period of much quieter weather. Clear and chilly with frosty mornings. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 12Z GFS shifted west again compared to the 00Z run... 1 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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