snow_wizard Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Geeze. I had forgotten how impressive that cold snap was in early October last year. Amazing how much more often that happens with warm or neutral ENSO. 2 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 36 minutes ago, SnowHawks said: Looking forward to chilly weather. So from what I understand a classic snow situation for the Puget Sound would have to be a low circulating moisture off the coast or some type of over-running event. Is it possible for moisture to slide down the BC coast so you would have to deal with convergence zones or battle with cold air and warm pacific air? The 12z GFS shows a pretty classic setup for valley snow (if it was winter). Getting lows to dig south along the coast with cold air is great for us. Places right to the north of those lows usually have a good combo of precipitation and cold air to make snow. The other main way is from overrunning events. Warm moist air from the ocean runs into an already established continental airmass. That can give us huge storms, but it usually warms up as storm systems eventually start tracking north and giving our area warmer SW winds from the ocean. In the end we are super reliant on the winds. Need to get rid of the influence of the ocean in most cases. Offshore winds happen in most scenarios. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Geeze. I had forgotten how impressive that cold snap was in early October last year. Amazing how much more often that happens with warm or neutral ENSO. It was 3 cold snaps spread out across the month. They were all impressive for October. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Conflicting reports! 1 2 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 cold "snap" inbound could be historic 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHawks Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Thanks. I seem to recall when i was young that our big snow events(region-wide) the weather forecast would show lows associated with cold air masses sliding down from Canada. If I recall correctly the December 1996 snowstorm set up in a very similar pattern. It just seems that we deal with so many dry air masses. Or if we do moisture with a cold air mass it is hit or miss as to where there is going to be accumulating snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 42 minutes ago, SnowHawks said: Looking forward to chilly weather. So from what I understand a classic snow situation for the Puget Sound would have to be a low circulating moisture off the coast or some type of over-running event. Is it possible for moisture to slide down the BC coast so you would have to deal with convergence zones or battle with cold air and warm pacific air? For Puget Sound to do really well there are a few good scenarios. 1. Arctic front with a lot of moisture streaming in under an offshore low / convergence from the front itself. 2. Backwash behind a departing low pressure system which tracks east of the Cascades south of Seattle. 3. Overrunning from a low tracking over Southern WA (low that remain west of Olympia or so are terrible). 4. Convergence zone with a cold enough air mass for snow. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 5 minutes ago, SnowHawks said: Thanks. I seem to recall when i was young that our big snow events(region-wide) the weather forecast would show lows associated with cold air masses sliding down from Canada. If I recall correctly the December 1996 snowstorm set up in a very similar pattern. It just seems that we deal with so many dry air masses. Or if we do moisture with a cold air mass it is hit or miss as to where there is going to be accumulating snow. Usually winters that are snowy everywhere get their snows at different times. It takes different scenarios for most places. Situations where very cold air is in place with a big low to pump in lots of moisture can happen and most places get a good snowfall from the same event. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, iFred said: this is a test post REACTIONS ARENT WORKING FOR ME! 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Speaking of snow...one of my favorites in recent times was the Christmas snow of 2017. That is a case where everything went absolutely right and we got more snow than we really had a right to. That one was a two parter for my area and both halves went perfectly. Part 1 was on Christmas Eve Day and it was an overrunning situation where it was JUST cold enough for the precip to be of decent quality snow. We picked up about an inch and a quarter from that. Part two came late Christmas Eve and Christmas Morning and was caused by the cold backwash from a surface low that tracked east of the Cascades a bit south of Seattle. We got 3 inches from that with the heaviest snow falling just after sunrise on Christmas Morning. Probably the most enjoyable snow event of any Christmas for me and it was a total case of threading the needle. 2008 had more snow on the ground on Christmas, but it was wet and not as pretty as 2017. 3 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Pretty crazy that we're on the verge of two consecutive years of historic late October cold. Hope the rest of the winter turns out a lot different than the last! 3 1 3 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 10 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: REACTIONS ARENT WORKING FOR ME! Same here. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thisisatest Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 test 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 1 minute ago, Kayla said: Pretty crazy that we're on the verge of two consecutive years of historic late October cold. Hope the rest of the winter turns out a lot different than the last! This is a Nina so it should be a lot better. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Beautiful afternoon at the pumpkin patch. We had to decide if we were going north or south... and south was by far the best choice today! 2 1 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 1 hour ago, snow_wizard said: Geeze. I had forgotten how impressive that cold snap was in early October last year. Amazing how much more often that happens with warm or neutral ENSO. It gets overlooked with how lousy the following winter was, but the 5 week period from late September through end of October was pretty historic in terms of early fall cold spells. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 19 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: This is a Nina so it should be a lot better. With +QBO. -ENSO winters with +QBO: 2016-17, 2013-14, 2010-11, 2008-09. Every reason to expect this winter to be very different than last. 3 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Beautiful afternoon at the pumpkin patch. We had to decide if we were going north or south... and south was by far the best choice today! Can you go back next weekend and take a picture when they are all covered in snow? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 6 hours ago, MossMan said: Well alrighty then... 1.30” so far on the day, 5.05” for the month. 47 and raining currently. Yeah I was camping "upstream" from you (north end of Whidbey Island), and that ended up being a lot more of a storm than I was expecting. I didn't quite get my tarp right (I hammock camp) and woke up around 1:30-2 to some crazy a** winds out of the NW and driving rain. I had to go out and re-set everything, and created a crease that trapped the rain until it got to a certain point then....wooosh-splash! It let go about every 5-15 minutes depending on how hard it was coming down. I got woken up around 6am by howling east winds and waves crashing on the beach. I was kinda concerned I was going to get stuck out there, but the winds had died down by the time I got loaded up and ready to leave. Still a very drizzly low visibility paddle back to Cornet Bay. I have no idea what the temp was but it was definitely on the "chilly" side. 1 1 1 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 So far so good on the 18z. 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 1 minute ago, iFred said: Seems to be a theme. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Dang that’s a cold airmass. 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 1 hour ago, snow_wizard said: 2008 had more snow on the ground on Christmas, but it was wet and not as pretty as 2017. I loved Christmas 2017. i am curious how many more decades before snow near sea level becomes irrelevant in the PNW? i saw an article by Cliff Mass showing (worst case scenario) 4-5 degrees of warming by 2050. Worse case scenario that means this decade might be our last of meaningful winters. So sad... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Holy sheeit! The 18z GFS is colder than the 12z. Looks like the 12z GEM. Sometimes the GEM is right with these events. It was the most extreme by far leading up to the Nov 2010 event and it was right. Thickness drops to 522 in this area on this run. Wow! 1 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, HighlandExperience said: I loved Christmas 2017. i am curious how many more decades before snow near sea level becomes irrelevant in the PNW? i saw an article by Cliff Mass showing (worst case scenario) 4-5 degrees of warming by 2050. Worse case scenario that means this decade might be our last of meaningful winters. So sad... I'm skeptical. We are just entering the solar grand minimum. If you look at temperature graphs the past few centuries they follow grand mixima and grand minima pretty well. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Unquestionably historic cold on this run for so early. Just insane. 1 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 And the surface gradients are dead nuts on for maximum cooling once the cold is in place. If this run verifies there will be a lot 20s and maybe an upper teens here and there. The chill is really slated to begin Tuesday night, but 850s will be cool even as early as tomorrow night. Going to be a tale of two very different segments to this month. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 2 hours ago, puyallupjon said: cold "snap" inbound could be historic Looks like you nailed it. I knew it was possible given the fact it had to flip at some point, but was not quite confident enough to make a firm prediction. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 The evolution of the pattern on this run is just plain textbook. Please let it happen in January! 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Holy inversion. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 The wavetrain has been very blocky and now the blockiness is working in the West’s favor. I really don’t think this is going to be a zonal, 42 degree drizzle type Niña. All we need at this point is to avoid another PV fuckup like last year. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Looks like you nailed it. I knew it was possible given the fact it had to flip at some point, but was not quite confident enough to make a firm prediction. He nailed it two hours ago... and its now final verified by the 18Z GFS? I am confused. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: He nailed it two hours ago... and its now final verified by the 18Z GFS? I am confused. I nailed it in my winter forecast. Not two hours ago. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 1 minute ago, puyallupjon said: I nailed it in my winter forecast. Not two hours ago. Ahhh. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Just now, TT-SEA said: Ahhh. sarcasm I must say that my winter forecast will be about as good as any word salad Phil spits out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: I can't believe NWS Seattle hasn't bit on the snow yet. They didn't even mention it in their afternoon AFD! these models change every 12 hours and they will change again no reason to get all worked up just yet 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 65/52 0.03” today. Ended up with a good amount of sunshine this afternoon after a bit of rain this morning. 5 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 18, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 A Tiger, Dolt, Eujunga dickbag special! 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: A Tiger, Dolt, Eujunga dickbag special! It's definitely a colder pattern. We're making some progress. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 10 degrees cooler on today's forecast for Saturday. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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