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October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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Geeze.  I had forgotten how impressive that cold snap was in early October last year.  Amazing how much more often that happens with warm or neutral ENSO.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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36 minutes ago, SnowHawks said:

Looking forward to chilly weather. So from what I understand a classic snow situation for the Puget Sound would have to be a low circulating moisture off the coast or some type of over-running event. Is it possible for moisture to slide down the BC coast so you would have to deal with convergence zones or battle with cold air and warm pacific air?  

The 12z GFS shows a pretty classic setup for valley snow (if it was winter). Getting lows to dig south along the coast with cold air is great for us. Places right to the north of those lows usually have a good combo of precipitation and cold air to make snow. 
 

The other main way is from overrunning events. Warm moist air from the ocean runs into an already established continental airmass. That can give us huge storms, but it usually warms up as storm systems eventually start tracking north and giving our area warmer SW winds from the ocean. 
 

In the end we are super reliant on the winds. Need to get rid of the influence of the ocean in most cases. Offshore winds happen in most scenarios. 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Geeze.  I had forgotten how impressive that cold snap was in early October last year.  Amazing how much more often that happens with warm or neutral ENSO.

It was 3 cold snaps spread out across the month. They were all impressive for October. 

  • Snow 1

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Thanks. I seem to recall when i was young that our big snow events(region-wide) the weather forecast would show lows associated with cold air masses sliding down from Canada. If I recall correctly the December 1996 snowstorm set up in a very similar pattern. It just seems that we deal with so many dry air masses. Or if we do moisture with a cold air mass it is hit or miss as to where there is going to be accumulating snow.  

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42 minutes ago, SnowHawks said:

Looking forward to chilly weather. So from what I understand a classic snow situation for the Puget Sound would have to be a low circulating moisture off the coast or some type of over-running event. Is it possible for moisture to slide down the BC coast so you would have to deal with convergence zones or battle with cold air and warm pacific air?  

For Puget Sound to do really well there are a few good scenarios.

1. Arctic front with a lot of moisture streaming in under an offshore low / convergence from the front itself.

2. Backwash behind a departing low pressure system which tracks east of the Cascades south of Seattle.

3. Overrunning from a low tracking over Southern WA (low that remain west of Olympia or so are terrible).

4. Convergence zone with a cold enough air mass for snow.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, SnowHawks said:

Thanks. I seem to recall when i was young that our big snow events(region-wide) the weather forecast would show lows associated with cold air masses sliding down from Canada. If I recall correctly the December 1996 snowstorm set up in a very similar pattern. It just seems that we deal with so many dry air masses. Or if we do moisture with a cold air mass it is hit or miss as to where there is going to be accumulating snow.  

Usually winters that are snowy everywhere get their snows at different times.  It takes different scenarios for most places.  Situations where very cold air is in place with a big low to pump in lots of moisture can happen and most places get a good snowfall from the same event.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Speaking of snow...one of my favorites in recent times was the Christmas snow of 2017.  That is a case where everything went absolutely right and we got more snow than we really had a right to.  That one was a two parter for my area and both halves went perfectly.  Part 1 was on Christmas Eve Day and it was an overrunning situation where it was JUST cold enough for the precip to be of decent quality snow.  We picked up about an inch and a quarter from that.  Part two came late Christmas Eve and Christmas Morning and was caused by the cold backwash from a surface low that tracked east of the Cascades a bit south of Seattle.  We got 3 inches from that with the heaviest snow falling just after sunrise on Christmas Morning.  Probably the most enjoyable snow event of any Christmas for me and it was a total case of threading the needle.

2008 had more snow on the ground on Christmas, but it was wet and not as pretty as 2017.

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  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Pretty crazy that we're on the verge of two consecutive years of historic late October cold. Hope the rest of the winter turns out a lot different than the last!

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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10 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

REACTIONS ARENT WORKING FOR ME!

Same here.

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  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Kayla said:

Pretty crazy that we're on the verge of two consecutive years of historic late October cold. Hope the rest of the winter turns out a lot different than the last!

This is a Nina so it should be a lot better.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Geeze.  I had forgotten how impressive that cold snap was in early October last year.  Amazing how much more often that happens with warm or neutral ENSO.

It gets overlooked with how lousy the following winter was, but the 5 week period from late September through end of October was pretty historic in terms of early fall cold spells.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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6 hours ago, MossMan said:

Well alrighty then...

1.30” so far on the day, 5.05” for the month. 
47 and raining currently. 

Yeah I was camping "upstream" from you (north end of Whidbey Island), and that ended up being a lot more of a storm than I was expecting.  I didn't quite get my tarp right (I hammock camp) and woke up around 1:30-2 to some crazy a** winds out of the NW and driving rain.  I had to go out and re-set everything, and created a crease that trapped the rain until it got to a certain point then....wooosh-splash!  It let go about every 5-15 minutes depending on how hard it was coming down. 

I got woken up around 6am by howling east winds and waves crashing on the beach.  I was kinda concerned I was going to get stuck out there, but the winds had died down by the time I got loaded up and ready to leave.  Still a very drizzly low visibility paddle back to Cornet Bay.

 

I have no idea what the temp was but it was definitely on the "chilly" side.

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So far so good on the 18z.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Dang that’s a cold airmass.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

2008 had more snow on the ground on Christmas, but it was wet and not as pretty as 2017.


I loved Christmas 2017.

i am curious how many more decades before snow near sea level becomes irrelevant in the PNW?

i saw an article by Cliff Mass showing (worst case scenario) 4-5 degrees of warming by 2050. 

Worse case scenario that means this decade might be our last of meaningful winters. So sad...

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Holy sheeit!  The 18z GFS is colder than the 12z.  Looks like the 12z GEM.  Sometimes the GEM is right with these events.  It was the most extreme by far leading up to the Nov 2010 event and it was right.  Thickness drops to 522 in this area on this run.  Wow!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, HighlandExperience said:


I loved Christmas 2017.

i am curious how many more decades before snow near sea level becomes irrelevant in the PNW?

i saw an article by Cliff Mass showing (worst case scenario) 4-5 degrees of warming by 2050. 

Worse case scenario that means this decade might be our last of meaningful winters. So sad...

I'm skeptical.  We are just entering the solar grand minimum.  If you look at temperature graphs the past few centuries they follow grand mixima and grand minima pretty well.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Unquestionably historic cold on this run for so early.  Just insane.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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And the surface gradients are dead nuts on for maximum cooling once the cold is in place.  If this run verifies there will be a lot 20s and maybe an upper teens here and there.

The chill is really slated to begin Tuesday night, but 850s will be cool even as early as tomorrow night.  Going to be a tale of two very different segments to this month.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 hours ago, puyallupjon said:

cold "snap" inbound

could be historic 

Looks like you nailed it.  I knew it was possible given the fact it had to flip at some point, but was not quite confident enough to make a firm prediction.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The evolution of the pattern on this run is just plain textbook.  Please let it happen in January!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like you nailed it.  I knew it was possible given the fact it had to flip at some point, but was not quite confident enough to make a firm prediction.

He nailed it two hours ago... and its now final verified by the 18Z GFS?     I am confused.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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56A11DB4-EC03-48C0-96D0-748A0A93EB05.png

 

A Tiger, Dolt, Eujunga dickbag special!

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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