October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It's going to snow. The 18z is very impressive and is a text book pattern as Jim mentioned.  Looks like a December map.

[MossMan]

3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Speaking of snow...one of my favorites in recent times was the Christmas snow of 2017.  That is a case where everything went absolutely right and we got more snow than we really had a right to.  That one was a two parter for my area and both halves went perfectly.  Part 1 was on Christmas Eve Day and it was an overrunning situation where it was JUST cold enough for the precip to be of decent quality snow.  We picked up about an inch and a quarter from that.  Part two came late Christmas Eve and Christmas Morning and was caused by the cold backwash from a surface low that tracked east of the Cascades a bit south of Seattle.  We got 3 inches from that with the heaviest snow falling just after sunrise on Christmas Morning.  Probably the most enjoyable snow event of any Christmas for me and it was a total case of threading the needle.

2008 had more snow on the ground on Christmas, but it was wet and not as pretty as 2017.

December 25 2017 was nice...But December 25 2008 was epic! Heavy snow falling Christmas morning on top of several feet that had been piling up for a few weeks. 

[Gradient Keeper]

9 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

No NAM maps. Feels like Rob is slacking a little.

This morning I went out exploring outside of Estacada for hunting and shooting areas, but all that happened is I ended up sick all day with vertigo.... I am sorry the forum went NAM-less today. Speaking of....

 

00z NAM in 1 hour 6 minutes

C'MON!!!!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I wonder if there are any photos of EUG’s last white Christmas from 29 years ago?

[MossMan]

Sorry guys...Looks like warm ridging will take over the models this evening since I did this today...

[Requiem]

Hmmm, should I start getting moderately exciting for some chilly easterlies?

[MossMan]

Hard to believe it was just a little over a month ago I was running the impact sprinklers in my bark beds since I was worried that my area was going to spontaneously combust...Now I’m clearing my drainage ditches with already water flowing in them. 
1.42” so far on the day. Currently cloudy and 54. 

[Omegaraptor]

Looks like a high of 71 at HIO today, good for our last 70 of the year.

[MossMan]

Another thing I find odd...Everyone agrees that the smoke was awful last month...But what does everyone do when the burn ban is lifted...Yep they burn wet brush which just makes for this heavy stinky bad air quality. I don’t get it. At least wait until spring to give our lungs a chance to recover. 

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Another thing I find odd...Everyone agrees that the smoke was awful last month...But what does everyone do when the burn ban is lifted...Yep they burn wet brush which just makes for this heavy stinky bad air quality. I don’t get it. At least wait until spring to give our lungs a chance to recover. 

I think you have a really local issue there.   I have not seen or smelt any smoke anywhere for weeks.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GFS Ensembles (850s / Precip)

Yakima - Mean temp around -9c with solid agreement of members down to -12c. Wow. Imagine if this were 1-2 months from now we would be talking about a bitter backdoor blast for the Columbia Basin. C'MON!!!!

00z NAM in 18 minutes

00z GFS in 2 hours 5 minutes

00z GEM/CMC in 2 hours 38 minutes

00z ECMWF 4 hours 22 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

6:26 PM Radar Update

Nice downpour east of Brush Prairie, Battle Ground.

[bainbridgekid]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

18z GFS Ensembles (850s / Precip)

Yakima - Mean temp around -9c with solid agreement of members down to -12c. Wow. Imagine if this were 1-2 months from now we would be talking about a bitter backdoor blast for the Columbia Basin. C'MON!!!!

00z NAM in 18 minutes

00z GFS in 2 hours 5 minutes

00z GEM/CMC in 2 hours 38 minutes

00z ECMWF 4 hours 22 minutes

What link do you view those Ensemble charts in English?

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

What link do you view those Ensemble charts in English?

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&geoid=136221&lid=ENS&bw=1

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think you have a really local issue there.   I have not seen or smelt any smoke anywhere for weeks.

My neighbor to the north and to the south...All weekend. And I think the tree farm as well. 

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GFS Ensembles (850s / Precip)

Portland - Mean temp bottoms out at -5c, cluster of members -5c to -10c.

Seattle - Mean temp -5c, large cluster of members -4c to -8c.

[El_Nina]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think you have a really local issue there.   I have not seen or smelt any smoke anywhere for weeks.

He's not alone. Same thing happened here last night. A few people must've been burning during the day then the smell got entrenched when the wind went stagnant at night. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

A 55/48 day here. Amazing how much warmer it’s been in the Willamette Valley.

[El_Nina]

9 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

A 55/48 day here. Amazing how much warmer it’s been in the Willamette Valley.

Was about 65 here today.

[T-Town]

Nice sunset tonight. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Got to 70F here. Still feels like summer just with longer nights.

We are about +8F on the day and still running a solid +4.6F for the month.

Boring.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

Looks like a high of 71 at HIO today, good for our last 70 of the year.

Wow, we only got up to the upper 50s.

[TacomaWaWx]

Mild and breezy this evening at 59 degrees. Up to 2.81” of rain on the month after this mornings rain. Gfs and euro show about 1/2” of rain over the next 10 days so likely won’t be above average rainfall this month. Atleast we will finally be getting some chilly weather soon. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Another thing I find odd...Everyone agrees that the smoke was awful last month...But what does everyone do when the burn ban is lifted...Yep they burn wet brush which just makes for this heavy stinky bad air quality. I don’t get it. At least wait until spring to give our lungs a chance to recover. 

I have been burning all day. Been waiting all summer to burn, if that bothers you go live in town.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I have been burning all day. Been waiting all summer to burn, if that bothers you go live in town.

No. Why burn when it’s sopping wet and what you are burning is sopping wet. Wait until the spring for things to dry a bit. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

I think you have a really local issue there.   I have not seen or smelt any smoke anywhere for weeks.

You have land, but you do not really seem to live in a rural area. 

[Omegaraptor]

Just now, MossMan said:

No. Why burn when it’s sopping wet and what you are burning is sopping wet. Wait until the spring for things to dry a bit. 

It isn't sopping wet here in Oregon.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

It isn't sopping wet here in Oregon.

Haven’t you guys had enough smoke? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

It isn't sopping wet here in Oregon.

True, it was a bit breezy today too. Blew the smoke right on out of here. Some people complain about chimney smoke too. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

No. Why burn when it’s sopping wet and what you are burning is sopping wet. Wait until the spring for things to dry a bit. 

We are in severe drought here.

[Gradient Keeper]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Extreme drought in Eugene. Severe here. 

[snow_wizard]

At face value the 18z GFS had three consecutive days with sub 50 highs for SEA and four consecutive days of sub 40 lows.  Pretty solid stuff!

[Omegaraptor]

45 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Extreme drought in Eugene. Severe here. 

Only moderate in Washington County!

I think that's because of a resolution issue, though. The water deficit map shows a very clear NW flow signature and this area is shadowed by NW flow.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 3, 4

Day 4 past 4 runs

[Gradient Keeper]

GFS looks like it is going to be further east with the cold trough. We shall see...

[Meatyorologist]

00z Significantly weaker with the high latitude blocking. Won't be quite as as cold...

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 850s past 4 runs

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks more like the euro. No snow on the pumpkin. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5