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October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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Just now, snow_wizard said:

Yup.  The PNA is -4 right now, but we have yet to see any benefit from it.  Nearly constant south winds.  The PNA being so tanked has certainly set the stage for the hammer to drop like it's going to.

So the south winds are bumping up the min temps?  My weather station's winds have been all over the place! :(   Wouldn't a -PNA also make the same south winds cooler then otherwise?

 

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I Absolutely hate this disgusting pattern we are in of warm mins! I never do well in this junk! Shouldn't Jessie also be enjoying what's coming up instead of grouching?  Just about anything short of a death ridge is better then this kind of BS!   Let's keep this upcoming cool theme as a theme and not a one shot pattern!

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The Euro breaks the block down pretty fast which allows temps to moderate quickly early next week.  Hope it's wrong!  At any rate it shows a solidly chilly weekend.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, Link said:

I Absolutely hate this disgusting pattern we are in of warm mins!

It’s not my favorite either and it’s really made for some dull fall colors this year. It was amazing how much better the colors got just after we had those couple seasonably cool nights late last week.

The last few nights we have just had a lot of onshore flow in a mild airmass. That should start to change tomorrow night as things cool aloft, then by later this week lows should really fall off a cliff.

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Just now, Jesse said:

It’s not my favorite either and it’s readily made for some dull fall colors this year. It was amazing how much better the colors got just after we had those couple seasonably cool nights late last week.

The last few nights we have just had a lot of onshore flow in a mild airmass. That should start to change tomorrow night as things cool aloft, then by later this week lows should really fall off a cliff.

So it actually DOES effect fall colors? I always wondered what role temps played in fall colors besides sun angle.  Which is more important  or are they both equal?

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4 minutes ago, Link said:

I Absolutely hate this disgusting pattern we are in of warm mins! I never do well in this junk! Shouldn't Jessie also be enjoying what's coming up instead of grouching?  Just about anything short of a death ridge is better then this kind of BS!   Let's keep this upcoming cool theme as a theme and not a one shot pattern!

This change will be quite a shock to the system after this.  Keep in mind it will be much cooler starting Tuesday.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, Link said:

So it actually DOES effect fall colors? I always wondered what role temps played in fall colors besides sun angle.  Which is more important  or are they both equal?

Temps are by far the most important.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

It’s not my favorite either and it’s readily made for some dull fall colors this year. It was amazing how much better the colors got just after we had those couple seasonably cool nights late last week.

The last few nights we have just had a lot of onshore flow in a mild airmass. That should start to change tomorrow night as things cool aloft, then by later this week lows should really fall off a cliff.

As for the onshore flow it seems to me this kind of warmth is usually for heavy rains from the SW.  It feels weird this time of year being this warm at night without hearing heavy or steady rain coming down at the same time due to a warm front.

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

It’s not my favorite either and it’s really made for some dull fall colors this year. It was amazing how much better the colors got just after we had those couple seasonably cool nights late last week.

The last few nights we have just had a lot of onshore flow in a mild airmass. That should start to change tomorrow night as things cool aloft, then by later this week lows should really fall off a cliff.

In the end this month will go down as pretty dynamic with great variety.  We've had abnormal warmth, quite a bit of wind, a good thunderstorm, a tornado in SW WA, and now the coming cold.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

It’s annoying to put some work toward answering a question only to have it immediately followed up by another question.

I was quoting your onshore flow post too.  Do you think this is affecting the fall colors a lot as it seems to me the onshore should keep things cool unless a warm front hits allowing fall colors to advance at a normal pace.  I mean warmer then artic air of course but closer to average lows with little variation.

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Here's the fun part.

The pattern upstream develops in just 24-36 hours. Day 3-5 there are still uncertainties regarding how strong the low is moving into the Aleutians, the placement of it how far east it is, and how strong is the high-latitude blocking. Things are looking pretty good for a decent backdoor chilly shot, but I am not all-in for anything colder than minimum High/Low 46/30 (PDX). Yeah, that's quite conservative for me. There is still time for colder runs, but just the same depending on the energy in the Aleutians the block may not trend as favorably. We shall see.

 

6z GFS in 2 hour 26 minutes

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2 minutes ago, Link said:

As for the onshore flow it seems to me this kind of warmth is usually for heavy rains from the SW.  It feels weird this time of year being this warm at night without hearing heavy or steady rain coming down at the same time due to a warm front.

These big minus PNA episodes can feature strong N to S temperature gradients.  We have been on the warm side of the line lately.  

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Here's the fun part.

The pattern upstream develops in just 24-36 hours. Day 3-5 there are still uncertainties regarding how strong the low is moving into the Aleutians, the placement of it how far east it is, and how strong is the high-latitude blocking. Things are looking pretty good for a decent backdoor chilly shot, but I am not all-in for anything colder than minimum High/Low 46/30 (PDX). Yeah, that's quite conservative for me. There is still time for colder runs, but just the same depending on the energy in the Aleutians the block may not trend as favorably. We shall see.

 

6z GFS in 2 hour 26 minutes

A pretty fair assessment

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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Here's the fun part.

The pattern upstream develops in just 24-36 hours. Day 3-5 there are still uncertainties regarding how strong the low is moving into the Aleutians, the placement of it how far east it is, and how strong is the high-latitude blocking. Things are looking pretty good for a decent backdoor chilly shot, but I am not all-in for anything colder than minimum High/Low 46/30 (PDX). Yeah, that's quite conservative for me. There is still time for colder runs, but just the same depending on the energy in the Aleutians the block may not trend as favorably. We shall see.

 

6z GFS in 2 hour 26 minutes

46 / 30 is still pretty big time for this early.  It's going to be interesting to see how that possible low develops on Friday.  A lot of potential for huge curve balls with that.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Here's the fun part.

The pattern upstream develops in just 24-36 hours. Day 3-5 there are still uncertainties regarding how strong the low is moving into the Aleutians, the placement of it how far east it is, and how strong is the high-latitude blocking. Things are looking pretty good for a decent backdoor chilly shot, but I am not all-in for anything colder than minimum High/Low 46/30 (PDX). Yeah, that's quite conservative for me. There is still time for colder runs, but just the same depending on the energy in the Aleutians the block may not trend as favorably. We shall see.

 

6z GFS in 2 hour 26 minutes

A safe line would be O/U 49.5 Hi 31.5 Lo for PDX

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

46 / 30 is still pretty big time for this early.  It's going to be interesting to see how that possible low develops on Friday.  A lot of potential for huge curve balls with that.

Yeah it is. Yep, too many curve balls still in play. IF we see models look like this by Tuesday 00z I would be more confident.

 

12z ECMWF in 10 hours 39 minutes

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So a colder fall is better for the pretty fall colors then long extended warmth?  Or is too cold bad as well? What kind of fall do you recommend for optimal fall colors? Technically I love colder falls but I DON'T KNOW if that's good for fall colors if I am screwing myself for liking colder falls.

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56F and mostly cloudy. Pleasant smoke on the porch in a t shirt and jeans. Once again, feels like a cool, summer night.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

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Just now, Link said:

So a colder fall is better for the pretty fall colors then long extended warmth?  Or is too cold bad as well? What kind of fall do you recommend for optimal fall colors?

Somebody correct me if I am wrong. I think it is nice sunny days with cool nights that brings out the best fall colors. 

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Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

56F and mostly cloudy. Pleasant smoke on the porch in a t shirt and jeans. One again, feels like a cool, summer night.

Yet day time maxs are not anywhere near where we were in that awful death ridge!  I wonder if that is also part of the -PNA pattern we are in subtracting our highs quite a bit.

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1 minute ago, Link said:

So a colder fall is better for the pretty fall colors then long extended warmth?  Or is too cold bad as well? What kind of fall do you recommend for optimal fall colors? Technically I love colder falls but I DON'T KNOW if that's good for fall colors if I am screwing myself for liking colder falls.

Too cold is bad as well. I remember autumns in the Rockies when early cold snaps sent temperatures into the deep freeze and blasted any live foliage. Could go from green and alive to brown and dead literally overnight.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Somebody correct me if I am wrong. I think it is nice sunny days with cool nights that brings out the best fall colors. 

Any good years that allow for that you recall? Is this upcoming pattern also something I'll like for fall colors or am I screwing myself over loving this kind of cold pattern being shown?

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27 minutes ago, Link said:

Is this the last night of greater then 50F weather at night? What's up with these strings of super warm mins?  Aren't we suppose to be in the middle of a -PNA? Someone on here said so not too far back.  I swear it was Snow Whizard but it could've been Phil who's into that kind of thing.

Wasn’t me.

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2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Somebody correct me if I am wrong. I think it is nice sunny days with cool nights that brings out the best fall colors. 

I do not know exactly what the magic combo is, but I do know that continental climates get consistently better color than maritime ones. Even in our better years our colors are pretty blah compared to the Rockies, upper Midwest, New England, etc.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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The ECMWF is actually going for a low of 31 for SEA on Oct 25 which would tie the 1954 record.  It would also be the earliest sub freezing min on record for SEA in ages.

In other news they did an update on the tornado several days back and concluded it was an EF-1.  It apparently snapped some trees that were 2.5 feet in diameter!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Night shift seems probable.... Need some model riding fuel. Pizza? ....

6z NAM in 28 minutes

Here is this good enough pizza for you? Too bad the tree's cannot (except the middle one perhaps?) reach the buttons on the pizza machine.

 

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2 minutes ago, Link said:

Any good years that allow for that you recall? Is this upcoming pattern also something I'll like for fall colors or am I screwing myself over loving this kind of cold pattern being shown?

I’m a senior in college so my last couple years are a little foggy.... i swear last year or the year before was one of the best in awhile....

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF is actually going for a low of 31 for SEA on Oct 25 which would tie the 1954 record.  It would also be the earliest sub freezing min on record for SEA in ages.

In other news they did an update on the tornado several days back and concluded it was an EF-1.  It apparently snapped some trees that were 2.5 feet in diameter!

An EF1... Nice

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