Jesse Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 9 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Next Sunday high temp PDX 43. Not bad. That would tie their record MIN/MAX for October I believe. Still a long ways out of course. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Day 9'er sorta got funky Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Link Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Just now, snow_wizard said: Yup. The PNA is -4 right now, but we have yet to see any benefit from it. Nearly constant south winds. The PNA being so tanked has certainly set the stage for the hammer to drop like it's going to. So the south winds are bumping up the min temps? My weather station's winds have been all over the place! Wouldn't a -PNA also make the same south winds cooler then otherwise? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 12 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 6 Day Snowfall Totals - Looks like a fair amount of snow for Bellingham. Maybe someone with WXBell or WeatherModels can post for that area. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Link Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 I Absolutely hate this disgusting pattern we are in of warm mins! I never do well in this junk! Shouldn't Jessie also be enjoying what's coming up instead of grouching? Just about anything short of a death ridge is better then this kind of BS! Let's keep this upcoming cool theme as a theme and not a one shot pattern! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: The amounts on those maps are much more realistic. Heck, given that it’s only October, I’ll be happy to see some wet flurries. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 9'er sorta got funky Funky in a Parliament Funkadelic way. It looks like George Clinton. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 The Euro breaks the block down pretty fast which allows temps to moderate quickly early next week. Hope it's wrong! At any rate it shows a solidly chilly weekend. 1 1 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, Link said: I Absolutely hate this disgusting pattern we are in of warm mins! It’s not my favorite either and it’s really made for some dull fall colors this year. It was amazing how much better the colors got just after we had those couple seasonably cool nights late last week. The last few nights we have just had a lot of onshore flow in a mild airmass. That should start to change tomorrow night as things cool aloft, then by later this week lows should really fall off a cliff. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Link Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, Snowdrift said: Funky in a Parliament Funkadelic way. It looks like George Clinton. Looks kinda like Ganon's Malic swirling around from the castle. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Link Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Just now, Jesse said: It’s not my favorite either and it’s readily made for some dull fall colors this year. It was amazing how much better the colors got just after we had those couple seasonably cool nights late last week. The last few nights we have just had a lot of onshore flow in a mild airmass. That should start to change tomorrow night as things cool aloft, then by later this week lows should really fall off a cliff. So it actually DOES effect fall colors? I always wondered what role temps played in fall colors besides sun angle. Which is more important or are they both equal? 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, Link said: I Absolutely hate this disgusting pattern we are in of warm mins! I never do well in this junk! Shouldn't Jessie also be enjoying what's coming up instead of grouching? Just about anything short of a death ridge is better then this kind of BS! Let's keep this upcoming cool theme as a theme and not a one shot pattern! This change will be quite a shock to the system after this. Keep in mind it will be much cooler starting Tuesday. 2 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Just now, Link said: So it actually DOES effect fall colors? I always wondered what role temps played in fall colors besides sun angle. Which is more important or are they both equal? Temps are by far the most important. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Link Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 minute ago, Jesse said: It’s not my favorite either and it’s readily made for some dull fall colors this year. It was amazing how much better the colors got just after we had those couple seasonably cool nights late last week. The last few nights we have just had a lot of onshore flow in a mild airmass. That should start to change tomorrow night as things cool aloft, then by later this week lows should really fall off a cliff. As for the onshore flow it seems to me this kind of warmth is usually for heavy rains from the SW. It feels weird this time of year being this warm at night without hearing heavy or steady rain coming down at the same time due to a warm front. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Link Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: Temps are by far the most important. How far can warm temps delay fall colors? 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, Jesse said: It’s not my favorite either and it’s really made for some dull fall colors this year. It was amazing how much better the colors got just after we had those couple seasonably cool nights late last week. The last few nights we have just had a lot of onshore flow in a mild airmass. That should start to change tomorrow night as things cool aloft, then by later this week lows should really fall off a cliff. In the end this month will go down as pretty dynamic with great variety. We've had abnormal warmth, quite a bit of wind, a good thunderstorm, a tornado in SW WA, and now the coming cold. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Been awhile since we had a good November. Hopefully this is just the beginning 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Link Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 minute ago, Jesse said: It’s annoying to put some work toward answering a question only to have it immediately followed up by another question. I was quoting your onshore flow post too. Do you think this is affecting the fall colors a lot as it seems to me the onshore should keep things cool unless a warm front hits allowing fall colors to advance at a normal pace. I mean warmer then artic air of course but closer to average lows with little variation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Here's the fun part. The pattern upstream develops in just 24-36 hours. Day 3-5 there are still uncertainties regarding how strong the low is moving into the Aleutians, the placement of it how far east it is, and how strong is the high-latitude blocking. Things are looking pretty good for a decent backdoor chilly shot, but I am not all-in for anything colder than minimum High/Low 46/30 (PDX). Yeah, that's quite conservative for me. There is still time for colder runs, but just the same depending on the energy in the Aleutians the block may not trend as favorably. We shall see. 6z GFS in 2 hour 26 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, Link said: As for the onshore flow it seems to me this kind of warmth is usually for heavy rains from the SW. It feels weird this time of year being this warm at night without hearing heavy or steady rain coming down at the same time due to a warm front. These big minus PNA episodes can feature strong N to S temperature gradients. We have been on the warm side of the line lately. 3 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Here's the fun part. The pattern upstream develops in just 24-36 hours. Day 3-5 there are still uncertainties regarding how strong the low is moving into the Aleutians, the placement of it how far east it is, and how strong is the high-latitude blocking. Things are looking pretty good for a decent backdoor chilly shot, but I am not all-in for anything colder than minimum High/Low 46/30 (PDX). Yeah, that's quite conservative for me. There is still time for colder runs, but just the same depending on the energy in the Aleutians the block may not trend as favorably. We shall see. 6z GFS in 2 hour 26 minutes A pretty fair assessment 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Here's the fun part. The pattern upstream develops in just 24-36 hours. Day 3-5 there are still uncertainties regarding how strong the low is moving into the Aleutians, the placement of it how far east it is, and how strong is the high-latitude blocking. Things are looking pretty good for a decent backdoor chilly shot, but I am not all-in for anything colder than minimum High/Low 46/30 (PDX). Yeah, that's quite conservative for me. There is still time for colder runs, but just the same depending on the energy in the Aleutians the block may not trend as favorably. We shall see. 6z GFS in 2 hour 26 minutes 46 / 30 is still pretty big time for this early. It's going to be interesting to see how that possible low develops on Friday. A lot of potential for huge curve balls with that. 2 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 PDX falling though the 50s... 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Here's the fun part. The pattern upstream develops in just 24-36 hours. Day 3-5 there are still uncertainties regarding how strong the low is moving into the Aleutians, the placement of it how far east it is, and how strong is the high-latitude blocking. Things are looking pretty good for a decent backdoor chilly shot, but I am not all-in for anything colder than minimum High/Low 46/30 (PDX). Yeah, that's quite conservative for me. There is still time for colder runs, but just the same depending on the energy in the Aleutians the block may not trend as favorably. We shall see. 6z GFS in 2 hour 26 minutes A safe line would be O/U 49.5 Hi 31.5 Lo for PDX 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Just now, snow_wizard said: 46 / 30 is still pretty big time for this early. It's going to be interesting to see how that possible low develops on Friday. A lot of potential for huge curve balls with that. Yeah it is. Yep, too many curve balls still in play. IF we see models look like this by Tuesday 00z I would be more confident. 12z ECMWF in 10 hours 39 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Link Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 So a colder fall is better for the pretty fall colors then long extended warmth? Or is too cold bad as well? What kind of fall do you recommend for optimal fall colors? Technically I love colder falls but I DON'T KNOW if that's good for fall colors if I am screwing myself for liking colder falls. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 56F and mostly cloudy. Pleasant smoke on the porch in a t shirt and jeans. Once again, feels like a cool, summer night. 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Just now, Link said: So a colder fall is better for the pretty fall colors then long extended warmth? Or is too cold bad as well? What kind of fall do you recommend for optimal fall colors? Somebody correct me if I am wrong. I think it is nice sunny days with cool nights that brings out the best fall colors. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Link Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said: 56F and mostly cloudy. Pleasant smoke on the porch in a t shirt and jeans. One again, feels like a cool, summer night. Yet day time maxs are not anywhere near where we were in that awful death ridge! I wonder if that is also part of the -PNA pattern we are in subtracting our highs quite a bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Friday into Saturday should be fun to track. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 minute ago, Link said: So a colder fall is better for the pretty fall colors then long extended warmth? Or is too cold bad as well? What kind of fall do you recommend for optimal fall colors? Technically I love colder falls but I DON'T KNOW if that's good for fall colors if I am screwing myself for liking colder falls. Too cold is bad as well. I remember autumns in the Rockies when early cold snaps sent temperatures into the deep freeze and blasted any live foliage. Could go from green and alive to brown and dead literally overnight. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Link Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Somebody correct me if I am wrong. I think it is nice sunny days with cool nights that brings out the best fall colors. Any good years that allow for that you recall? Is this upcoming pattern also something I'll like for fall colors or am I screwing myself over loving this kind of cold pattern being shown? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 27 minutes ago, Link said: Is this the last night of greater then 50F weather at night? What's up with these strings of super warm mins? Aren't we suppose to be in the middle of a -PNA? Someone on here said so not too far back. I swear it was Snow Whizard but it could've been Phil who's into that kind of thing. Wasn’t me. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Somebody correct me if I am wrong. I think it is nice sunny days with cool nights that brings out the best fall colors. I do not know exactly what the magic combo is, but I do know that continental climates get consistently better color than maritime ones. Even in our better years our colors are pretty blah compared to the Rockies, upper Midwest, New England, etc. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Night shift seems probable.... Need some model riding fuel. Pizza? .... 6z NAM in 28 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Just now, DJ Droppin said: Night shift seems probable.... Need some model riding fuel. Pizza? .... 6z NAM in 28 minutes Gorton's fish sticks with tartar sauce 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 The ECMWF is actually going for a low of 31 for SEA on Oct 25 which would tie the 1954 record. It would also be the earliest sub freezing min on record for SEA in ages. In other news they did an update on the tornado several days back and concluded it was an EF-1. It apparently snapped some trees that were 2.5 feet in diameter! 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Link Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Night shift seems probable.... Need some model riding fuel. Pizza? .... 6z NAM in 28 minutes Here is this good enough pizza for you? Too bad the tree's cannot (except the middle one perhaps?) reach the buttons on the pizza machine. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, Link said: Any good years that allow for that you recall? Is this upcoming pattern also something I'll like for fall colors or am I screwing myself over loving this kind of cold pattern being shown? I’m a senior in college so my last couple years are a little foggy.... i swear last year or the year before was one of the best in awhile.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: The ECMWF is actually going for a low of 31 for SEA on Oct 25 which would tie the 1954 record. It would also be the earliest sub freezing min on record for SEA in ages. In other news they did an update on the tornado several days back and concluded it was an EF-1. It apparently snapped some trees that were 2.5 feet in diameter! An EF1... Nice Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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