Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 10 minutes ago, Jesse said: By late November or so, a several week stretch of highs 50 or lower up there actually becomes feasible. Think mid-50s and rain! Think pineapples! C'MON! 1 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 10 minutes ago, Jesse said: Heading down the valley to poop on Tiger’s night shift The cranes will be passing overhead soon. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 CFS monthlies not bullish on January anymore. Still showing solid cold Feb-April. They also show above average precip every month Nov-Mar. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 ICON shows the only chilly airmass we get being the Thursday/Friday one. Cold air goes about 500 miles east over the weekend. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 GFS is going north with the low too, which will shunt all the cold air east of the Rockies. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 My Davis app yielded to chilly weather ahead! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 It’s over. (I’m only basing this on Andrew’s posts) 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Total snow per the 12Z GFS... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 The 12z is definitely more mild for Oregon over the weekend. Same general pattern that should still give us some chilly nights though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Looks like that chilly shot is all it's gonna be. 1 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 The airmass Thursday/Friday ends up being the coldest one for Oregon. Maybe some frost in outlying areas. I should get my first frost Thursday or Friday morning. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Maybe someday Snow Wizard will finally stop jinxing us with, "October 1949," rhetoric. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: Maybe someday Snow Wizard will finally stop jinxing us with, "October 1949," rhetoric. I’m sure this one run settles everything. Gonna be a long winter on here. 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Lol I really hope nobody here was truly anticipating lowland snow. Still looks like a decent cold shot for this time of year. 3 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Warm low of 54 this morning. Had some drizzle but nothing measurable. 1 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 minute ago, Jesse said: I’m sure this one run settles everything. Gonna be a long winter on here. Just tired of him talking about things 10 days out on the models as present or past tense. 5 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 ENSO 3.4 region is now at -1.4C. JAS ONI came in at -0.6C, so the Nina has officially begun. 1 1 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Just tired of him talking about things 10 days out on the models as present or past tense. I agree, but I still find it better than constant sadcasting bolstered by historically inaccurate “analogs” and stats basically made up on the fly. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: ENSO 3.4 region is now at -1.4C. JAS ONI came in at -0.6C, so the Nina has officially begun. SNOW 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Maybe someday Snow Wizard will finally stop jinxing us with, "October 1949," rhetoric. October 1949 alright. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 12z GEM still looks cold. 1 2 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 GEM is still chilly. 1 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 48 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: CFS monthlies not bullish on January anymore. Still showing solid cold Feb-April. They also show above average precip every month Nov-Mar. Stronger ninas are a lock for a cold Feb-Apr period. I know that will happen. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 9 minutes ago, Jesse said: I agree, but I still find it better than constant sadcasting bolstered by historically inaccurate “analogs” and stats basically made up on the fly. Why you gotta rip on Tiger. 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 GEM ALERT! 2 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 12z GFS blocking not as prominent. GEM still on the chilly/cold train with a notable backdoor "blast" Pre-Halloween style. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, Kayla said: 12z GEM still looks cold. Didn’t the GEM lead the way once or twice last season? 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 minute ago, Snowdrift said: Stronger ninas are a lock for a cold Feb-Apr period. I know that will happen. Even held true in 2018...Well the cold faded by April IIRC. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 GEM does look very good. Who knows. Frost possible! 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, MossMan said: Didn’t the GEM lead the way once or twice last season? Yeah, it's a heck of a lot more reliable than the GFS. Continuously scores 2nd behind just the ECMWF. 2 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: GEM does look very good. Who knows. Frost possible! If you scroll through prior runs... the GEM is shifting noticeably east with each run. 1 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: GEM does look very good. Who knows. Frost possible! Good to see you stepping back from the ledge! 1 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, Snowdrift said: Stronger ninas are a lock for a cold Feb-Apr period. I know that will happen. I would be okay with a February 2019 redux. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: If you scroll through prior runs... the GEM is shifting noticeably east with each run. It is. To be honest I do not have much invested in this "event." I am more disappointed we still have no sign of zonal flow. I would rather get our inevitable wet mild month out of the way as soon as possible. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 The ole models giveth, taketh away situation. We're into that time frame now. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Why you gotta rip on Tiger. I straight up really like the guy on a personal level. Would like to see him take on more of a positive outlook. If not for anyone else then maybe for his own sake. And I will always butt heads with someone here who makes up or embellishes weather stats to fit a narrative. Nothing new. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 minute ago, MossMan said: I would be okay with a February 2019 redux. El Nino. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Frost Storm 2020 is a go! Maybe. 12z ECMWF in 53 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Just now, Jesse said: I straight up really like the guy on a personal level. Would like to see him take on more of a positive outlook. If not for anyone else then maybe for his own sake. And I will always butt heads with someone here who makes up or embellishes weather stats to fit a narrative. Nothing new. Makes up or just posts ones you do not like? 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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