October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Rubus Leucodermis]

10 minutes ago, Jesse said:

By late November or so, a several week stretch of highs 50 or lower up there actually becomes feasible.

Think mid-50s and rain! Think pineapples! C'MON!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Heading down the valley to poop on Tiger’s night shift

The cranes will be passing overhead soon. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS monthlies not bullish on January anymore. Still showing solid cold Feb-April. They also show above average precip every month Nov-Mar. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ICON shows the only chilly airmass we get being the Thursday/Friday one. Cold air goes about 500 miles east over the weekend. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS is going north with the low too, which will shunt all the cold air east of the Rockies. 

[Blizzard777]

My Davis app yielded to chilly weather ahead! 

[MossMan]

It’s over. (I’m only basing this on Andrew’s posts) 

[TT-SEA]

Total snow per the 12Z GFS...

[FroYoBro]

The 12z is definitely more mild for Oregon over the weekend. Same general pattern that should still give us some chilly nights though. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like that chilly shot is all it's gonna be.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The airmass Thursday/Friday ends up being the coldest one for Oregon. Maybe some frost in outlying areas. I should get my first frost Thursday or Friday morning. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Maybe someday Snow Wizard will finally stop jinxing us with, "October 1949," rhetoric. 

[Jesse]

[Jesse]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Maybe someday Snow Wizard will finally stop jinxing us with, "October 1949," rhetoric. 

I’m sure this one run settles everything.

Gonna be a long winter on here.

[TacomaWaWx]

Lol I really hope nobody here was truly anticipating lowland snow. Still looks like a decent cold shot for this time of year. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Warm low of 54 this morning. Had some drizzle but nothing measurable. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

I’m sure this one run settles everything.

Gonna be a long winter on here.

Just tired of him talking about things 10 days out on the models as present or past tense. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ENSO 3.4 region is now at -1.4C. JAS ONI came in at -0.6C, so the Nina has officially begun. 

[Jesse]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just tired of him talking about things 10 days out on the models as present or past tense. 

I agree, but I still find it better than constant sadcasting bolstered by historically inaccurate “analogs” and stats basically made up on the fly.

[FroYoBro]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

ENSO 3.4 region is now at -1.4C. JAS ONI came in at -0.6C, so the Nina has officially begun. 

SNOW

[van city]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Maybe someday Snow Wizard will finally stop jinxing us with, "October 1949," rhetoric. 

October 1949 alright. 

[Kayla]

12z GEM still looks cold. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM is still chilly. 

[snow drift]

48 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

CFS monthlies not bullish on January anymore. Still showing solid cold Feb-April. They also show above average precip every month Nov-Mar. 

Stronger ninas are a lock for a cold Feb-Apr period. I know that will happen.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I agree, but I still find it better than constant sadcasting bolstered by historically inaccurate “analogs” and stats basically made up on the fly.

Why you gotta rip on Tiger. 

[Deweydog]

GEM ALERT!

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS blocking not as prominent. GEM still on the chilly/cold train with a notable backdoor "blast" Pre-Halloween style.

 

 

 

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, Kayla said:

12z GEM still looks cold. 

Didn’t the GEM lead the way once or twice last season? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Snowdrift said:

Stronger ninas are a lock for a cold Feb-Apr period. I know that will happen.

Even held true in 2018...Well the cold faded by April IIRC. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM does look very good. Who knows. Frost possible!

[Kayla]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Didn’t the GEM lead the way once or twice last season? 

Yeah, it's a heck of a lot more reliable than the GFS. Continuously scores 2nd behind just the ECMWF.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GEM does look very good. Who knows. Frost possible!

If you scroll through prior runs... the GEM is shifting noticeably east with each run.

[Kayla]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GEM does look very good. Who knows. Frost possible!

Good to see you stepping back from the ledge!

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

Stronger ninas are a lock for a cold Feb-Apr period. I know that will happen.

I would be okay with a February 2019 redux. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

If you scroll through prior runs... the GEM is shifting noticeably east with each run.

It is. To be honest I do not have much invested in this "event." I am more disappointed we still have no sign of zonal flow. I would rather get our inevitable wet mild month out of the way as soon as possible. 

[Gradient Keeper]

The ole models giveth, taketh away situation. We're into that time frame now.

[Jesse]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Why you gotta rip on Tiger. 

I straight up really like the guy on a personal level. Would like to see him take on more of a positive outlook. If not for anyone else then maybe for his own sake.

And I will always butt heads with someone here who makes up or embellishes weather stats to fit a narrative. Nothing new.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I would be okay with a February 2019 redux. 

El Nino.

[Gradient Keeper]

Frost Storm 2020 is a go! Maybe.

12z ECMWF in 53 minutes

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Jesse said:

I straight up really like the guy on a personal level. Would like to see him take on more of a positive outlook. If not for anyone else then maybe for his own sake.

And I will always butt heads with someone here who makes up or embellishes weather stats to fit a narrative. Nothing new.

Makes up or just posts ones you do not like?