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October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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Wow, Euro trending in the right direction...wild.

Really gonna be an interesting week. Didn't expect to see this kinda model surfing this early!

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 9

500h_anom.na.png

Looks boring, but chilly at the surface. I would prefer a more active pattern over a continual ridgefest though.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I’m almost in the lightest shade of grey!!!

Same! Woot!

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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12z GEM Ensembles

Minimum Temps

Portland: Mean temp 24 F. Cluster of members down to 19 F.

Seattle: Mean temp 30 F: Cluster of members down to 27 F.

Yakima: Mean temp 12 F. Cluster of members down to 8 F.

Spokane: Mean temp 12 F. Cluster of members down to 8 F.

Bellingham: Mean temp 28 F. Cluster of members down to 24 F.

Salem: Mean temp 26 F. Cluster of members down to 20 F.

Eugene: Mean temp 25 F. Cluster of members down to 22 F.

Bozeman: Mean temp 4 F. Cluster of members down to 0 F. (Colder when factoring in snowfall)

 

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12 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Yup.  The PNA is -4 right now, but we have yet to see any benefit from it.  Nearly constant south winds.  The PNA being so tanked has certainly set the stage for the hammer to drop like it's going to.

We don’t have a mature cold season wavetrain right now. Leading October EOFs for PNA/NPO translate differently over space and time vs January.

If this upcoming pattern were to manifest again in January, it would be an icebox almost everywhere, similar to Dec 1983 or Dec/Jan 1984/85.

 

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I know everyone here is focused on the near term cold, but I’m just as intrigued by the potent MJO/GWO projected by the EPS suite.

Could be some big league storminess and/or zonal flow during the first 2-3 weeks of November w/ subsidence transiting the MC along w/ the rise in AAM (tendency & integral). Andrew should be happy. 

I’m not well versed in windstorm climatology out there, but this seems like a pattern that might favor something like that.

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

I know everyone here is focused on the near term cold, but I’m just as intrigued by the potent MJO/GWO projected by the EPS suite.

Could be some big league storminess and/or zonal flow during the first 2-3 weeks of November w/ subsidence transiting the MC along w/ the rise in AAM (tendency & integral).

I’m not well versed in windstorm climatology out there, but this seems like a pattern that might favor something like that.

Yep, I'm getting a November 2006/November 1995 vibe. Faucet is really going to be turned on starting November 1.

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Was looking at the downtown data for Portland from the late 1800s yesterday. Pretty amazing how frequent wicked arctic outbreaks were. I can’t remember the year, but there was one in the mid 1880s in the middle of February that had multiple sub freezing highs. Then one in February 1883 that had a 14/7 day. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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34 minutes ago, Phil said:

I know everyone here is focused on the near term cold, but I’m just as intrigued by the potent MJO/GWO projected by the EPS suite.

Could be some big league storminess and/or zonal flow during the first 2-3 weeks of November w/ subsidence transiting the MC along w/ the rise in AAM (tendency & integral). Andrew should be happy. 

I’m not well versed in windstorm climatology out there, but this seems like a pattern that might favor something like that.

Now your speaking my language!!

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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30 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yep, I'm getting a November 2006/November 1995 vibe. Faucet is really going to be turned on starting November 1.

I am now drooling! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Inversion season is nearing! C'mon fake cold!!!!

Definitely in the inversion season now... but it might be a little more active than the 850mb would indicate.   Here is the 500mb map from the same period:

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom_7day-4404800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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55 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yep, I'm getting a November 2006/November 1995 vibe. Faucet is really going to be turned on starting November 1.

Probably something like that. 

I also think the switch could abruptly flip back to blocky/meridional during the last 10 days of November, when the MJO returns to the IPWP and AAM removal commences.

Return to blocking probably starts with a period of western ridging in late Nov (after the zonal firehose), followed by eventual retrogression to GOA ridge/-EPO with more significant cold sometime in December.

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Probably something like that. 

I also think the switch could abruptly flip back to blocky/meridional during the last 10 days of November, when the MJO returns to the IPWP and AAM removal commences.

Return to blocking probably starts with a period of western ridging in late Nov, followed by eventual retrogression to GOA ridge/-EPO with more significant cold sometime in December.

December’s gonna be warm, relatively speaking.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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24 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

December’s gonna be warm, relatively speaking.

Relative to what?

I think a warm December is hard to justify, as a forecast. Of course, even if I’m right, there are still ways for it to happen regardless. And if I’m wrong, well, it wouldn’t be the first time.

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40 minutes ago, Phil said:

Probably something like that. 

I also think the switch could abruptly flip back to blocky/meridional during the last 10 days of November, when the MJO returns to the IPWP and AAM removal commences.

Return to blocking probably starts with a period of western ridging in late Nov (after the zonal firehose), followed by eventual retrogression to GOA ridge/-EPO with more significant cold sometime in December.

November 2006 was pretty intense up here in the Lower Mainland and Fraser Valley. Numerous atmospheric rivers, damaging windstorms, and then a major snowstorm at the end of the month followed by a significant arctic outbreak. I would not complain about a repeat. 😃

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9 minutes ago, Phil said:

Relative to what?

I think a warm December is hard to justify, as a forecast. Of course, even if I’m right, there are still ways for it to happen regardless. And if I’m wrong, well, it wouldn’t be the first time.

Nina Decembers have a tendency to hedge toward the benign.  And if there’s an opportunity for warmth, our current climate will typically seize upon it.  We’ll C!

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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