Phil Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: 33-34 Nope. Though if you like old analogs, 1942/43 is intriguing assuming SSTA reconstructions are correct. 1949/50 had a cold IO/-PMM. Not really analogous to 2020. Was Niña/+QBO, though. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 Day 3 GEM GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 PSCZ that stuck around for good part of the evening is starting to fizzle, just cold drizzle now. Ended up with 0.11” of precip. Chilly day! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 In actuality this autumn has a real 1942 or 1988 look to it. Big time torch through much of October with a notable chill later in the month (although this cold snap will be more impressive than those years). The 1942 cold snap was pretty sharp, but very short. In both cases relatively normal Novembers followed. Those were both big first year La Ninas. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 10 minutes ago, Jesse said: I think expecting that UHI polluted toxic waste dump to put up a respectable number will probably lead to disappointment. Areas that record real temperatures could be chilly, though. I was going by the ECMWF output so it's certainly possible. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, Jesse said: True. Meh..2 times in 5 years. Last winter being one of them. Not sure about this one yet. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 Day 4 GEM GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 12 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: 33-34 That was actually a pretty cold autumn. That's the one good thing about this torch....1933-34 is out. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 1 minute ago, Phil said: Meh..2 times in 5 years. Last winter being one of them. Not sure about this one yet. When will the MJO hit my house Phillips? 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 4 GEM GFS The GFS is obviously the warm outlier. I wouldn't rule out the GEM. I will never forgot how it pegged the Nov 2010 cold wave. It looked insane compared to the other models and it verified perfectly. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 11 minutes ago, Phil said: Nope. Though if you like old analogs, 1942/43 is intriguing assuming SSTA reconstructions are correct. 1949/50 had a cold IO/-PMM. Not really analogous to 2020. Was Niña/+QBO, though. 1942-43 has a lot going for it from an observed weather aspect as well. That January had a really dramatic cold wave. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 Day 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 Meh. Chilly. Not good enough though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 00z is noticeably worse than the 12z. Could wobble back tomorrow, the block is still evolving. 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 Confession time!!! I am having DOUBTS that this winter will be as cold as 1949-50. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: Confession time!!! I am having DOUBTS that this winter will be as cold as 1949-50. I think this statement introduces 2019-20 as an analog 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said: 00z is noticeably worse than the 12z. Could wobble back tomorrow, the block is still evolving. Yeah. Can we just get a freaking block to hold for more than a day? before it's pushed east. Annoying. 6z GFS in 3 hours Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 Just now, DJ Droppin said: Yeah. Can we just get a freaking block to hold for more than a day? before it's pushed east. Annoying. 6z GFS in 3 hours Our access to Arctic air continues to be further and further cut off year after year according to Cliff Mass. 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 Day 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 Just now, DJ Droppin said: Yeah. Can we just get a freaking block to hold for more than a day? before it's pushed east. Annoying. 6z GFS in 3 hours Thanksgiving is 1.5 months away. The heart of winter is 1/4th of 1 year away. Y’all are gonna burn yourselves out by the time the good stuff arrives. Rest up while u still can! 1 2 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 Total snow per the 00Z ECMWF... 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Our access to Arctic air continues to be further and further cut off year after year according to Cliff Mass. I don't agree with him on that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Our access to Arctic air continues to be further and further cut off year after year according to Cliff Mass. Eventually you are going to wear yourself out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 The surface pressure gradients continue to look incredible for max cooling for the Puget Sound area Saturday night. That one has potential to be really cold. Looking pretty likely it stays clear for Sunday night too. Should be impressive. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 I predict the first shot of real lowland snow will be around December 12th (i.e. ~50 days after the onset of this cold period, October 23rd). It'll be a wet November though. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 1 minute ago, luminen said: I predict the first shot of real lowland snow will be around December 12th (i.e. ~50 days after the onset of this cold period, October 23rd). It'll be a wet November though. November cancel??? 1 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 Day 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 7 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: I don't agree with him on that. I don't either. There is zero proof of that. We just had an historic Feb in WA the winter before last and OR had one in 2014. I still say the recent solar grand maximum is responsible for the general warmth since the mid 1980s. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: oops Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 https://www.oregon.gov/oda/programs/NaturalResources/Documents/Weather/dlongrange.pdf Pete Parsons is on board. 1 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 Offshore ridge stays amplified for a longer time on the ECMWF tonight. Good to keep the cold nights going. Still time for that to get even better in future runs also. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 6 minutes ago, luminen said: I predict the first shot of real lowland snow will be around December 12th (i.e. ~50 days after the onset of this cold period, October 23rd). It'll be a wet November though. I’m gonna burn a tire every day starting 11-1 until we get our first 6+ inch snowfall. 3 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 Cooler this evening. Already down to 50 with clearing skies. Really looking forward to the shot(s) of chilly air coming up the next 5-7 days. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 Day 8 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2018/05/decreasing-cold-waves-most-potent-sign.html 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 19 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Yeah. Can we just get a freaking block to hold for more than a day? before it's pushed east. Annoying. 6z GFS in 3 hours We were hoping for Mike Tyson, but instead we got Glass Joe. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 I do like this! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 8 Not that pattern again. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 Day 9 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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