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October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

No rain again. Ever. Typical Niña. 

If we keep following the script of this fall... there will likely be a very wet 2-week period in the middle of November.   Followed by another blocky and dry period at the end of the month.  

Its been a wet fall overall up here.   But there are different ways to get to wetter than normal.

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, El_Nina said:

2017-18 was a Niña and much wetter than normal at PDX. Both years since have been the driest back to back on record, neither of which were Niñas. 

There are endless zonal flow Ninas like 2017-18 and very blocky Ninas like 2013-14 (although that was pretty close to neutral).

The pattern cycle so far this fall is feeling more like the latter version.     

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

If we keep following the script of this fall... there will likely be a very wet 2-week period in the middle of November.   Followed by another blocky and dry period at the end of the month.  

Its been a wet fall overall up here.   But there are different ways to get to wetter than normal.

 

We’re due for a wet November. Last 2 November’s have been pretty dry especially last years 1.83” total. I’m pretty sure this November’s going to be wet. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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28 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

And maybe longer.    The 00Z EPS was ridgy through day 15.  

5-10 day and 10-15 day maps:

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_5day-4188800.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_5day-4620800.png

Going to be some beautiful days coming up...probably will still be chilly in the mornings. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

We’re due for a wet November. Last 2 November’s have been pretty dry especially last years 1.83” total. I’m pretty sure this November’s going to be wet. 

Last November was the 5th driest on record in my area.    But 2018 was almost perfectly normal.     And November was much wetter than normal in each of the 4 years before that (2014-17).   

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just checked the 00Z ECMWF and it showed highs in the 60s later next week so not really "inversion-y".

Thanks, then I won’t expect significant inversions. Hopefully won’t be a bummer ridge with high dew points and mild nights, but we shall see. Wanna get at least some frosty mornings out of it.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Thanks, then I won’t expect significant inversions. Hopefully won’t be a bummer ridge with high dew points and mild nights, but we shall see. Wanna get at least some frosty mornings out of it.

High dewpoints would likely mean an inversion.   The ECMWF shows dry air with chilly mornings and sunny, warm afternoons.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

High dewpoints would likely mean an inversion.   The ECMWF shows dry air with chilly mornings and sunny, warm afternoons.

I’ve seen ridges with dewpoints in the upper forties F that just don’t allow significant cooling overnight. And I will now stop using the r-word in my posts.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Last November was the 5th driest on record in my area.    But 2018 was almost perfectly normal.     And November was much wetter than normal in each of the 4 years before that (2014-17).   

 

5/7 have been dry in this area. And it's been 14 years since we saw a significantly wet one.

Due.

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18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

High dewpoints would likely mean an inversion.   The ECMWF shows dry air with chilly mornings and sunny, warm afternoons.

Humidity will increase as the low level pattern stagnates.... there will 100% be an inversion. Just a question of depth and burnoff times. We are entering the true inversion season now with us approaching mid February sun angles. But all day low clouds/fog still takes a fairly unique setup on the fringe of it. Not sure we'll get there in most places but a cooler than average pattern at the surface looks very likely.

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6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

5/7 have been dry in this area. And it's been 14 years since we saw a significantly wet one.

Due.

You might be due down there... but I have doubts that this November will be seriously wet.    Blocky theme so far this fall.   I do think there will be 2-week stretch of wet weather though. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You might be due down there... but I have doubts that this November will be seriously wet.    Blocky theme so far this fall.   I do think there will be 2-week stretch of wet weather though. 

Quite a blocky ride in September and October 2006 as well. Culminating in the Halloween cold here.

Only rained about 4" here those months. Then it rained over 6" here in the wonderful November 5-7 deluge 🤩😍🥰😊❤️💕💗😻

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2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Quite a blocky ride in September and October 2006 as well. Culminating in the Halloween cold here.

Only rained about 4" here those months. Then it rained over 6" here in the wonderful November 5-7 deluge 🤩😍🥰😊❤️💕💗😻

Fascinating.    Good luck with that.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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14 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Quite a blocky ride in September and October 2006 as well. Culminating in the Halloween cold here.

Only rained about 4" here those months. Then it rained over 6" here in the wonderful November 5-7 deluge 🤩😍🥰😊❤️💕💗😻

Would be awesome to get a repeat!! 🥰 ☔️ 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Seahawks game in the snow in November 2006...  :)

 

73047981.jpg

I'm sure we all have stories about this night.

My dad got stuck on Hwy 522 in Maltby on the way home from work, but at least he could listen to the game!

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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On 10/19/2020 at 9:50 PM, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This GFS run says the trick or treaters are getting wet!

The GFS now says they are staying dry...

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-precip_6hr_inch-4188800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Zero rain for the whole US.... pretty impressive 

Alaska says hi

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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Just now, luminen said:

That Pacific cyclone off Mexico looks interesting.

Side note: I wonder if Hawaii will get any strong storms this season? @Phil?

Yeah... I actually posted the same thing while you were typing.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, jakerepp said:

I'm sure we all have stories about this night.

My dad got stuck on Hwy 522 in Maltby on the way home from work, but at least he could listen to the game!

I had about 16” of snow on the ground with temps falling into the mid teens that evening. No power. Trees down everywhere. It was epic. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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