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October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

For tracking purposes and future reference... the GFS was way too aggressive with the cold air at a week out.   That was an issue last winter as well.  

Top image is tomorrow morning when it was 7 days out... and the bottom image is the same time at 1 day out.

 

gfs_z500a_us_29.png

gfs_z500a_us_5.png

Thanks as well.....this helps teach my brain cells! At least it did signal cooler temps on the way.

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56 minutes ago, Jesse said:

On a brighter note, with the chilly weather the last few days and the colder weather on the way this weekend, this October is quickly dropping down the ranks for warmest ever. Should drop behind 1988 by early next week which would bump it out of the top 5.

Even if the last few days of the month end up warmer than average, it will probably continue pulling the monthly average down since even a couple degrees warmer than average in late October is still so much cooler than what we saw the first ten days of the month.

Pretty decent chance we wind up with a normal or even slightly cool month. We're looking at -10ish departures for a few straight days, and the cool nights will continue for awhile.

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4 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Thanks as well.....this helps teach my brain cells! At least it did signal cooler temps on the way.

Those two maps show a completely different 500mb pattern. There have been countless times the models have gotten the 500mb pattern wrong at day 7, whether it be the Euro, GFS, GEM, ICON, etc.

If anything the Euro flipped to being more bullish on the cold period than the GFS for much of the last week. Things gradually met in the middle and moderated which is almost always to be expected regarding extreme events in the mid to long range.

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17 minutes ago, Jesse said:

GFS ensembles look generally cooler and more active than the operational.

Nice to see the cold trough the next few days trend a little chiller and longer lasting in the home stretch too.
 

3D55B360-615B-4885-B107-0BC74EC4594F.png.cc8d19795c9e758960a2e9a858d2cccc.png

 

People are so glum. We have a decent little cold wave coming up.

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So if the GFS shows the trough 500 miles west of us over the Pacific we will be in biznaz. 

Nah, its like centering and balancing that little steel ball on a track.  It will either slide one way or the other dramatically leaving us with our normal climate weather. Ugh....tough battle to get cold and snow here

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2 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Nah, its like centering and balancing that little steel ball on a track.  It will either slide one way or the other dramatically leaving us with our normal climate weather. Ugh....tough battle to get cold and snow here

We struggle too. The mountains generally do their job well.

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Sorry for earlier this morning...won’t happen again I’ll try to be more respectful when addressing my concerns on this forum from now on. Again I legitimately just want  
to see people get along better on the forum is all I have nothing against anyone personally on here. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, iFred said:

Just catching up to everything this morning. I think given that the user base of the forum has been somewhat of a close knit community for 15+ years, there is a bit of leeway given when it comes to behavior that otherwise would result in a ban elsewhere. I'm guilty of this. As much as that level of comradery and dickishness is tolerated here, it is also probably one of the largest limiting factors in our communities growth and activity.

Every season now for six years, I get a couple dozen DMs from people on Twitter or here about how they like the forum, but they never post because they don't want to get attacked or talked down to by the same two people because they like sun or they think the webcam shows snow on I-5. It's 2020, and maybe it is time for a change. I'd like to have mets, local weather personalities, photographers, and armchair enthusiasts sharing their insights, stories, and observations, all without having to worry about getting harassed over their politics or personal preferences in the weather.

For the record, there currently IS snow on the webcam on Highway 97 in Omak.🥰🥰🥰

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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4 minutes ago, iFred said:

Just catching up to everything this morning. I think given that the user base of the forum has been somewhat of a close knit community for 15+ years, there is a bit of leeway given when it comes to behavior that otherwise would result in a ban elsewhere. I'm guilty of this. As much as that level of comradery and dickishness is tolerated here, it is also probably one of the largest limiting factors in our communities growth and activity.

Every season now for six years, I get a couple dozen DMs from people on Twitter or here about how they like the forum, but they never post because they don't want to get attacked or talked down to by the same two people because they like sun or they think the webcam shows snow on I-5. It's 2020, and maybe it is time for a change. I'd like to have mets, local weather personalities, photographers, and armchair enthusiasts sharing their insights, stories, and observations, all without having to worry about getting harassed over their politics or personal preferences in the weather.

I know nothing and now I’m an advanced member...lol!  Proof you can survive in this forum :)

i also hesitated in posting here a few years ago for those reason but the excitement of sharing what’s happening out the window surpassed!  Glad I made that choice and hope other do the same. 
 

Jim ( not to be confused with the other Jim)  🎃

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12Z ECMWF showing that low cutting off way out in the Pacific by the middle of next week... this is what opens the door to the NW flow pattern again.

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_6.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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25 minutes ago, iFred said:

Just catching up to everything this morning. I think given that the user base of the forum has been somewhat of a close knit community for 15+ years, there is a bit of leeway given when it comes to behavior that otherwise would result in a ban elsewhere. I'm guilty of this. As much as that level of comradery and dickishness is tolerated here, it is also probably one of the largest limiting factors in our communities growth and activity.

Every season now for six years, I get a couple dozen DMs from people on Twitter or here about how they like the forum, but they never post because they don't want to get attacked or talked down to by the same two people because they like sun or they think the webcam shows snow on I-5. It's 2020, and maybe it is time for a change. I'd like to have mets, local weather personalities, photographers, and armchair enthusiasts sharing their insights, stories, and observations, all without having to worry about getting harassed over their politics or personal preferences in the weather.

I get the sentiment, and have done what I can to make (admittedly incremental) improvements to my demeanor, even though I realize I am far from perfect. But honestly in the end I don't think I will ever be, and even though I can be very opinionated and snarky, verging on abrasive at times, when it comes down to it I really do like about 99.9% of the folks on here. I often hope that comes through in my posts, although I can also understand why it might not always seem that way.

I am all for making this place more inclusive but at the same time I guess the balancing act is always how much do you want to sacrifice years of this forum's rather unique culture in favor of a total reinvention? (a dragon that it seems we have been chasing for at least as long as I've been here). Honestly there is already a crap ton of weather knowledge here, and even the baddies you are singling out know and love aspects of our climate like the back of their hands. Even if not all of this knowledge it is accredited with a met tag there are an impressive amount of posters here who have become very wise in the ways of PNW climate simply through years of observation and a large degree of self teaching, fueled by a legitimate passion for weather.

Anyway I am probably rambling but I don't think it has to be one or the other. We don't have to throw the baby out with the bathwater so to speak. It would be nice to strike some sort of middle ground where we could attract more "professionals", but also not lose sight of all the good we have going for us right now, even though we are a pretty dysfunctional family. 

 

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This forum has been like a winter-long sitcom for me for 2 years now. Always fun to chase the snow with you guys even though I know absolutely nothing about meteorology beyond trough=might rain and ridge=seeing the sun again. I don't have much to contribute beyond excitement which is why I usually lay low. Anyways, if I can get some homework out of the way this morning I might get to scoot up 542 for some snow.

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21 minutes ago, iFred said:

Just catching up to everything this morning. I think given that the user base of the forum has been somewhat of a close knit community for 15+ years, there is a bit of leeway given when it comes to behavior that otherwise would result in a ban elsewhere. I'm guilty of this. As much as that level of comradery and dickishness is tolerated here, it is also probably one of the largest limiting factors in our communities growth and activity.

Every season now for six years, I get a couple dozen DMs from people on Twitter or here about how they like the forum, but they never post because they don't want to get attacked or talked down to by the same two people because they like sun or they think the webcam shows snow on I-5. It's 2020, and maybe it is time for a change. I'd like to have mets, local weather personalities, photographers, and armchair enthusiasts sharing their insights, stories, and observations, all without having to worry about getting harassed over their politics or personal preferences in the weather.

I agree with pretty much all points here. I have only been here 2 years I understand some but not all of the complicated personal dynamics of the forum. I really only say what I said just because I really want this place to be a place where people are comfortable and can get ask their questions about climate and weather info talk about current weather ect. without meaningless name calling and never ending old debates of preferences. I just legitimately want this place to take all the great things it has going for it and be able to take it to the next level with new voices and opinions...for professional and armchair Mets too! 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Just had first noticeable wind gusts out of the north.  It's been 39 most of the morning, but has popped up to 41 in the last hour or so.  0.24" in the rain bucket so far.  I had originally planned on venturing up towards Baker to find the snow today, but my son has turned up with Covid and its hitting him pretty hard.....feeling like I should stick close to home (and in cell phone range) today.

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Also...Jesse and I are good. Despite my comments this morning jesse is a very important and valuable person on this forum with tons of knowledge. Would hate to not have him around. Everyone except for domebuster and his 73 alternate accounts are all meaningful members on this forum. Hope that we can get more opinions and voices on this forum. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Just had first noticeable wind gusts out of the north.  It's been 39 most of the morning, but has popped up to 41 in the last hour or so.  0.24" in the rain bucket so far.  I had originally planned on venturing up towards Baker to find the snow today, but my son has turned up with Covid and its hitting him pretty hard.....feeling like I should stick close to home (and in cell phone range) today.

Oh wow... that sucks.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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45 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Also...Jesse and I are good. Despite my comments this morning jesse is a very important and valuable person on this forum with tons of knowledge. Would hate to not have him around. Everyone except for domebuster and his 73 alternate accounts are all meaningful members on this forum. Hope that we can get more opinions and voices on this forum. 

Thank you. I appreciate this.

I value your input quite a bit too, maybe more than I have let on. It seems like we both share a love of outdoors and nature in conjunction with the weather which I always really appreciate. You post some great pics.

You are also very balanced in your preferences, and seem capable of enjoying both rain and sun. You don't really complain about either too much no matter how much we have seen one more than the other in the short term, which is something that is so nice to see for a change. That kind of sentiment is very welcome here, a breath of fresh air so to speak.

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6 minutes ago, El_Nina said:

You can see on the 12 ECMWF how this system coming in is following the same script as the past year or so.

20201023_113151.jpg.be486a66bc07154515eb930d4d1e77ef.jpg

It correlates with the current drought map pretty closely. 

20201023_113118.jpg.ce90b24110abe3cfba37d20452fce98d.jpg

 

 

NW flow... same wet and dry anomalies just keep getting reinforced.  

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Just had first noticeable wind gusts out of the north.  It's been 39 most of the morning, but has popped up to 41 in the last hour or so.  0.24" in the rain bucket so far.  I had originally planned on venturing up towards Baker to find the snow today, but my son has turned up with Covid and its hitting him pretty hard.....feeling like I should stick close to home (and in cell phone range) today.

Yikes. Hope your son recovers nicely over the next few days!

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This forum is good fun— especially now that I’m a more levelheaded poster as a whole. Nice to see the camaraderie over a shared interest, even if it does come with the banter and occasional freak out.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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PDX up to 47. Still just 45 here.

Will be interesting to see how cool things stay moving into this afternoon. A daytime high in the 40s would be fun, although I think we would need to see a little more in the way of precip to move in during peak "heating" for that to be doable.

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Made it down to 30F last night. 2nd freeze of the year.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

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1 hour ago, Jesse said:

I get the sentiment, and have done what I can to make (admittedly incremental) improvements to my demeanor, even though I realize I am far from perfect. But honestly in the end I don't think I will ever be, and even though I can be very opinionated and snarky, verging on abrasive at times, when it comes down to it I really do like about 99.9% of the folks on here. I often hope that comes through in my posts, although I can also understand why it might not always seem that way.

I am all for making this place more inclusive but at the same time I guess the balancing act is always how much do you want to sacrifice years of this forum's rather unique culture in favor of a total reinvention? (a dragon that it seems we have been chasing for at least as long as I've been here). Honestly there is already a crap ton of weather knowledge here, and even the baddies you are singling out know and love aspects of our climate like the back of their hands. Even if not all of this knowledge it is accredited with a met tag there are an impressive amount of posters here who have become very wise in the ways of PNW climate simply through years of observation and a large degree of self teaching, fueled by a legitimate passion for weather.

Anyway I am probably rambling but I don't think it has to be one or the other. We don't have to throw the baby out with the bathwater so to speak. It would be nice to strike some sort of middle ground where we could attract more "professionals", but also not lose sight of all the good we have going for us right now, even though we are a pretty dysfunctional family. 

 

It's not that difficult all he's saying is this is a weather forum and everyone likes different things, Some like sun, Some like snow, Some like rain and they shouldn't be singled out. Treat everyone the same simple as that lol. 

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   What would  it take to make your avatar smile?

24 minutes ago, Jesse said:

PDX up to 47. Still just 45 here.

Will be interesting to see how cool things stay moving into this afternoon. A daytime high in the 40s would be fun, although I think we would need to see a little more in the way of precip to move in during peak "heating" for that to be doable.

 

 

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