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October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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2 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

Ridgy all over the Pacific. 

Makes last November look like Sesame Street.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Chilly day at PDX. Shout out to them. 

  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

They hit 65 this afternoon. Very warm for late October. Looks like Eugene hit 63, above average AS WELL. Very mild day across most of Oregon. WOW, 70 in MEDFORD!

This will catch the eye of the Tiger.

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

They hit 65 this afternoon. Very warm for late October. Looks like Eugene hit 63, above average AS WELL. Very mild day across most of Oregon. WOW, 70 in MEDFORD!

Ya. It’s down to 58 now but once that south wind hit today it bumped from 43 to 57 in a matter of 90 min or so. Still going to be cold tomorrow through Monday with lows around 10 Monday morning. I don’t have a good feeling about this winter. But what does my gut know? 

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58 minutes ago, Jesse said:

49/34 day here so far. Chilly.

 

Cold day in Washington. I can tell a lot of airmasses are going to cut off around Coburg this year.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Good grief the 18z is a disaster.

Yeah that’s nasty.

AAM spike in tandem with super +AO/poleward displaced northern jet above an anticyclonic WT. Doesn’t get any worse than that..gonna be a long 2-3 weeks. 😭

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Mammoth intraseasonal cycle here.

IPWP subsidence and WHEM/EPAC convection/upper level divergence. A little farther west and you’d have the 1997/98 low pass VP200 signal. Lol.

image.thumb.png.75445e2fdcf449153cd2778dc6160ee1.png

 

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I ended up with a very respectable 46 / 33 range today.  I was a bit worried yesterday when the ECMWF showed a SW wind blasting through here on yesterday's runs.  It never happened here.  Part two of the the cold snap has already begun to commence in Bellingham.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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16 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah that’s nasty.

AAM spike in tandem with super +AO/poleward displaced northern jet above an anticyclonic WT. Doesn’t get any worse than that..gonna be a long 2-3 weeks. 😭

My expectations for November have been / remain low.  Historically it's not a great month with a Nina going.  Obviously there are exceptions.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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22 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Anyway, back in reality. Looks like a kool -3 departure at EUG today. Close to a -10 departure at PDX.

The N to S temperature gradient has really made itself known as of late.  There were days just recently where it was pretty torchy even here, but just 30 or 40 miles north it was much cooler.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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38 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Ya. It’s down to 58 now but once that south wind hit today it bumped from 43 to 57 in a matter of 90 min or so. Still going to be cold tomorrow through Monday with lows around 10 Monday morning. I don’t have a good feeling about this winter. But what does my gut know? 

Why?  Strong Nina and +QBO in a major solar min.  Already a couple of major blocking episodes with significant Western cold (the September event just went east of us).  This one is / will be much further west.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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31 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Cold day in Washington. I can tell a lot of airmasses are going to cut off around Coburg this year.

I've been thinking the same, but it almost seems too obvious.  As the season progresses we could easily see the cold side of the line move further south as compared to this cold snap so far.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The Mesonet map shows a lot places are already shifting to north winds as the low tracks south of the area.  It is kind of scary how close the warm air has gotten to me though.  We'll see if the wind shift can hold it off.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, dolt said:

Slightly OT, but we do have some posters from Whatcom county. The first confirmed asian giant hornet nest in the United States has been located there.

https://katu.com/news/nation-world/first-ever-giant-murder-hornet-nest-in-us-found-in-washington

I sure hope they can keep those from getting established here.  Might be another reason to hope for a severe winter.  A real Fraser River blast might prove fatal to any other nests they are trying to establish.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Why?  Strong Nina and +QBO in a major solar min.  Already a couple of major blocking episodes with significant Western cold (the September event just went east of us).  This one is / will be much further west.

Remember how last year you were so hung ho on a cold and snowy winter? Cold October, lowest solar min since the Mander minimum, and a few other things. The way you’re talking is the same as last winter and look what happened. I’ve Ben around here for a long time, just my names have changed a little, but it’s a broken record. You will be right one of these winters but I just don’t think this is the one. Dam that blob, and dam the already patterns that have been with us for the good part of two years already. Just my two cents tho. 

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1 minute ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Remember how last year you were so hung ho on a cold and snowy winter? Cold October, lowest solar min since the Mander minimum, and a few other things. The way you’re talking is the same as last winter and look what happened. I’ve Ben around here for a long time, just my names have changed a little, but it’s a broken record. You will be right one of these winters but I just don’t think this is the one. Dam that blob, and dam the already patterns that have been with us for the good part of two years already. Just my two cents tho. 

Last 2 years were a Nino.  This is a Nina year. Totally different.  And the blob won't affect upper level patterns at all.  Also many think the blob will disappear with a normal Nina weather pattern.

I have not seen a single winter forecast from any expert that thinks this will be a warm and dry year.  

But yeah, Jim is often overly optimistic.  

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10 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Remember how last year you were so hung ho on a cold and snowy winter? Cold October, lowest solar min since the Mander minimum, and a few other things. The way you’re talking is the same as last winter and look what happened. I’ve Ben around here for a long time, just my names have changed a little, but it’s a broken record. You will be right one of these winters but I just don’t think this is the one. Dam that blob, and dam the already patterns that have been with us for the good part of two years already. Just my two cents tho. 

It's a Nina vs Nino.  That alone is a pretty big deal.  Besides that it's a first year strong Nina.  All I'm saying is we have some extra aces in the deck this winter.  BTW...I've been right many times in the past.  Last winter fooled me...no two ways about it.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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15 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Remember how last year you were so hung ho on a cold and snowy winter? Cold October, lowest solar min since the Mander minimum, and a few other things. The way you’re talking is the same as last winter and look what happened. I’ve Ben around here for a long time, just my names have changed a little, but it’s a broken record. You will be right one of these winters but I just don’t think this is the one. Dam that blob, and dam the already patterns that have been with us for the good part of two years already. Just my two cents tho. 

Last year it was more of a "we're due" message.  I love the optimism shown and the reasoning behind the thoughts.

My preferences have changed and I do not want to see any snow or cold.  The power goes out.  The house gets cold.  It's hard to get around and it's very dangerous when trees and power lines fall.

I'm hoping for lots of ridging with sun and cool nights.

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8 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Last 2 years were a Nino.  This is a Nina year. Totally different.  And the blob won't affect upper level patterns at all.  Also many think the blob will disappear with a normal Nina weather pattern.

I have not seen a single winter forecast from any expert that thinks this will be a warm and dry year.  

But yeah, Jim is often overly optimistic.  

I'm betting the blob will take a big hit this weekend.  You're right about it being a superficial feature this season.  It's an artifact left over from the torchy pattern we have been in.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, puyallupjon said:

Last year it was more of a "we're due" message.  I love the optimism shown and the reasoning behind the thoughts.

My preferences have changed and I do not want to see any snow or cold.  The power goes out.  The house gets cold.  It's hard to get around and it's ver dangerous when trees and power lines fall.

I'm hoping for lots of ridging with sun and cool nights.

I think you would have liked 1936-37.  It snowed and then was cold an clear with snow on the ground a lot of the time.  Very enjoyable without the hassle.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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So far the cold is holding in here.  Just 5 miles south of here it's 52 with a bit of a SW wind blowing.  The line where the south winds hit a brick wall is just south of here.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Jesse and Chris would once again be proud...I was up a ladder in the pouring rain to take down my weather station for battery replacement and cleaning. I got quite wet but my station is once again reading accurately! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

I think you would have liked 1936-37.  It snowed and then was cold an clear with snow on the ground a lot of the time.  Very enjoyable without the hassle.

I could get behind something like that.

As a kid the arctic fronts would plow through, drop some snow and then it would be crystal clear with brilliant sun and beautiful snow coated streets and yards with a stiff north wind.

Seems like it's been a while.

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Just now, MossMan said:

Jesse and Chris would once again be proud...I was up a ladder in the pouring rain to take down my weather station for battery replacement and cleaning. I got quite wet but my station is once again reading accurately! 

Do they make any that you can plug in or run by a combination of batteries and solar?  Going up on ladders scare me.

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