Gradient Keeper Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 Day 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 3 hours ago, snow_wizard said: It's a Nina vs Nino. That alone is a pretty big deal. Besides that it's a first year strong Nina. All I'm saying is we have some extra aces in the deck this winter. BTW...I've been right many times in the past. Last winter fooled me...no two ways about it. It fooled me too. In hindsight, it was game over once the TPV/PV became vertically stacked over the Beaufort/Western Arctic. At that point the deep tropics were already statically stable, the IPWP was dormant, and WAFz went dead. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 Day 7 Transitory boredom thus far 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 6 that little impulse dropping down out of the north off the coast prevents the ridges from merging that low near Hawaii needs to dig to pop the ridge nice and strong might happen eventually Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 1 hour ago, snow_wizard said: I did say there were exceptions. I don't think this year will be one them. Late November should see blocking return again. Not sure it’ll be -PNA to start but it’ll probably trend that way after thanksgiving into December. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 30’s! 1 3 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 Day 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 Up to 0.21” on the day...3.06” for October. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 We want an active Niña. Replaying 88-89 in our modern climate will not go well. 1 2 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 The 0z is super boring, but at least it features a good amount of light rain in North Bend. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: We want an active Niña. Replaying 88-89 in our modern climate will not go well. A dynamic tropical/ET feedback off IPWP for wave driving is what I hope to see establish later this month. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 How often are La Niña Novembers warm/dry out there? Wasn’t 2008 pretty dry in Nov? 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 41 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Your profile pic probably fits your name better than anyone else here. I don't know where I found the photograph. It was probably Google images or something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 First white Christmas since 2017 incoming! 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 4 minutes ago, Phil said: How often are La Niña Novembers warm/dry out there? Wasn’t 2008 pretty dry in Nov? If I remember correctly I was washing my truck in shorts on or around Thanksgiving 2008! 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, Phil said: How often are La Niña Novembers warm/dry out there? Wasn’t 2008 pretty dry in Nov? Yes. 2016 was wet but very mild. 2010 was mild the first half of November. I believe we hit the low 70s in many spots early in the month. 2011 was coolish and damp. 2017 I do not remember at all. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 7 minutes ago, Phil said: How often are La Niña Novembers warm/dry out there? Wasn’t 2008 pretty dry in Nov? If I recall correctly there was zero snow up in ski resorts through the first week of December then all he’ll broke loose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 I discovered in my research last year that a dry October/November in the Willamette Valley is a bad sign for the upcoming winter. The signal is much stronger during Nino falls though. It led me to rewrite my entire winter forecast at the last minute, and it worked out really well. It’s not quite as hard a rule during a Niña. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 00z GEM Day 8 - The only thing interesting thus far(EURO still to come) on tonight's model runs after about Day 3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Yes. 2016 was wet but very mild. 2010 was mild the first half of November. I believe we hit the low 70s in many spots early in the month. 2011 was coolish and damp. 2017 I do not remember at all. Looking at my pics from November/December 2017 I had snow on both the 3rd and 5th of November, then lots of sun and frost in December, then a white Christmas! 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 GEM is nice if you like normal November fare. 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 2017-18 was slightly more exciting than last winter here. December was chilly, no white Christmas here, a very cold late February and a big snow event in late March. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 00z GEM Day 9 .... Now as we go through the next week let's see this move ahead to Day 8, Day 6, Day 4, etc, etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 23 minutes ago, Phil said: How often are La Niña Novembers warm/dry out there? Wasn’t 2008 pretty dry in Nov? I know it was mild. In Portland, my first freeze of the season coincided with the start of the Dec 2008 cold snap. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 I feel fortunate to have achieved a 47 / 33 range today after seeing the late day warm wind blast that hit many areas. Part one of the cold snap did pretty well here. The second act is looking pretty impressive judging from the surface obs up north. This will go down as an impressively cold 5 or 6 day event for a lot of places. Hopefully a foretaste of what winter will have in store for us. I wasn't expecting to just go into non stop exciting stuff after this. A dull November followed by a much more interesting Dec through early Feb is what I'm thinking right now. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: I know it was mild. In Portland, my first freeze of the season coincided with the start of the Dec 2008 cold snap. 2008 had some pretty legit cold in October. I think Bellingham had something like 25 mid month. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: 2017-18 was slightly more exciting than last winter here. December was chilly, no white Christmas here, a very cold late February and a big snow event in late March. The Christmas snow here was a dandy. About 4 inches of high quality snow that all fell Christmas Eve and Christmas morning. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: 2008 had some pretty legit cold in October. I think Bellingham had something like 25 mid month. Could well be, but I was living in Portland at the time. I’ve moved around a fair deal. A hassle, but it has made me familiar with the weather patterns in various parts of the western lowlands. Average first frost date for Bellingham is mid-October. It’s sometime in November for both Seattle and Portland. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 While PNW gets some chilly weather, some areas of Southern California haven't gone below 60 this October. Last year we had lots of lows in the 50s by this time. That could finally change by Sunday night and almost certainly by Monday night. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 What a underwhelming air mass. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 UW 00z WRF-GFS looks relatively unchanged. Sunday morning looks like Winter! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 5 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: What a underwhelming air mass. Very true Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 5 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: What a underwhelming air mass. The coldest weather is yet to come. Patience. You mean the cold outliers didn’t verify after all, and what happened was more towards the middle of the pack of model runs? That’s a first! 1 2 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: The coldest weather is yet to come. Patience. You mean the cold outliers didn’t verify after all, and what happened was more towards the middle of the pack of model runs? That’s a first! Lol 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 41 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 00z GEM Day 8 - The only thing interesting thus far(EURO still to come) on tonight's model runs after about Day 3. It looks like a fetus up near Greenland. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 It's amazing how predictable it is that that these backwash / CAA situations bring precip to my area. If this were December or January it would be snowing here for sure. This is certainly a classic push / pull CAA scenario with the departing low pulling the cold in while the advancing Canadian high is pushing it in. Can't ever recall seeing one this early before. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 18 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: What a underwhelming air mass. You're not in the right place for this. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: You're not in the right place for this. For what? A bit of frost between now and Monday? That's not any where near exciting. I saw that 2 nights ago already. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 24, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 Made it up to 63F after a low of 30F. Currently 55F and cloudy. Feels like a pleasant summer evening. 1 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 00z ECMWF Day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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