Jump to content

October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


Recommended Posts

3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

It's a Nina vs Nino.  That alone is a pretty big deal.  Besides that it's a first year strong Nina.  All I'm saying is we have some extra aces in the deck this winter.  BTW...I've been right many times in the past.  Last winter fooled me...no two ways about it.

It fooled me too. In hindsight, it was game over once the TPV/PV became vertically stacked over the Beaufort/Western Arctic. At that point the deep tropics were already statically stable, the IPWP was dormant, and WAFz went dead. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I did say there were exceptions.  I don't think this year will be one them.

Late November should see blocking return again. Not sure it’ll be -PNA to start but it’ll probably trend that way after thanksgiving into December.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We want an active Niña. Replaying 88-89 in our modern climate will not go well.

  • Excited 1
  • Sun 2
  • Troll 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We want an active Niña. Replaying 88-89 in our modern climate will not go well.

A dynamic tropical/ET feedback off IPWP for wave driving is what I hope to see establish later this month.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

How often are La Niña Novembers warm/dry out there?

Wasn’t 2008 pretty dry in Nov?

If I remember correctly I was washing my truck in shorts on or around Thanksgiving 2008!

  • Sun 1
  • Snow 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

How often are La Niña Novembers warm/dry out there?

Wasn’t 2008 pretty dry in Nov?

Yes. 
 

2016 was wet but very mild.

2010 was mild the first half of November. I believe we hit the low 70s in many spots early in the month. 
 

2011 was coolish and damp. 
 

2017 I do not remember at all. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I discovered in my research last year that a dry October/November in the Willamette Valley is a bad sign for the upcoming winter. The signal is much stronger during Nino falls though. It led me to rewrite my entire winter forecast at the last minute, and it worked out really well. It’s not quite as hard a rule during a Niña. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yes. 
 

2016 was wet but very mild.

2010 was mild the first half of November. I believe we hit the low 70s in many spots early in the month. 
 

2011 was coolish and damp. 
 

2017 I do not remember at all. 

Looking at my pics from November/December 2017 I had snow on both the 3rd and 5th of November, then lots of sun and frost in December, then a white Christmas! 

79EBA955-F585-41CB-A88B-53342FB1B77F.jpeg

2540C840-8778-4262-8497-44087CEA9105.jpeg

  • Snow 2

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GEM is nice if you like normal November fare. 

  • Excited 3

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2017-18 was slightly more exciting than last winter here. December was chilly, no white Christmas here, a very cold late February and a big snow event in late March. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I feel fortunate to have achieved a 47 / 33 range today after seeing the late day warm wind blast that hit many areas.  Part one of the cold snap did pretty well here.  The second act is looking pretty impressive judging from the surface obs up north.  This will go down as an impressively cold 5 or 6 day event for a lot of places.  Hopefully a foretaste of what winter will have in store for us.

I wasn't expecting to just go into non stop exciting stuff after this.  A dull November followed by a much more interesting Dec through early Feb is what I'm thinking right now.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I know it was mild. In Portland, my first freeze of the season coincided with the start of the Dec 2008 cold snap.

2008 had some pretty legit cold in October.  I think Bellingham had something like 25 mid month.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

2017-18 was slightly more exciting than last winter here. December was chilly, no white Christmas here, a very cold late February and a big snow event in late March. 

The Christmas snow here was a dandy.  About 4 inches of high quality snow that all fell Christmas Eve and Christmas morning.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

2008 had some pretty legit cold in October.  I think Bellingham had something like 25 mid month.

Could well be, but I was living in Portland at the time. I’ve moved around a fair deal. A hassle, but it has made me familiar with the weather patterns in various parts of the western lowlands.

Average first frost date for Bellingham is mid-October. It’s sometime in November for both Seattle and Portland.

It's called clown range for a reason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

What a underwhelming air mass.

Very true

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

What a underwhelming air mass.

  1. The coldest weather is yet to come. Patience.
  2. You mean the cold outliers didn’t verify after all, and what happened was more towards the middle of the pack of model runs? That’s a first!
  • Popcorn 1
  • Snow 2
It's called clown range for a reason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's amazing how predictable it is that that these backwash / CAA situations bring precip to my area.  If this were December or January it would be snowing here for sure.  This is certainly a classic push / pull CAA scenario with the departing low pulling the cold in while the advancing Canadian high is pushing it in.  Can't ever recall seeing one this early before.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

What a underwhelming air mass.

You're not in the right place for this.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Made it up to 63F after a low of 30F. Currently 55F and cloudy. Feels like a pleasant summer evening.

  • Like 1
  • Downvote 1
  • Troll 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...