MossMan Posted October 25, 2020 Report Share Posted October 25, 2020 Things can change...Let’s reference the end of November/beginning of December 2008 as a case in point... https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2008/11/thanksgiving-and-upcoming-heat-wave.html?m=1 2 2 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 25, 2020 Report Share Posted October 25, 2020 12 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: Models look great! Golfers rejoice!! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 25, 2020 Report Share Posted October 25, 2020 EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED!!! 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 25, 2020 Report Share Posted October 25, 2020 This is a really impressive cold outbreak for this early. Not even midnight and Lynden is at 35 with NE winds gusting to 37, and at the same time Spokane is at 19 with gusty winds. It appears the 850s have bottomed out at -5.5 over SEA (or will shortly). To the best of my knowledge that would make this the coldest continental air mass to strike this early in many decades. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted October 25, 2020 Report Share Posted October 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, Deweydog said: EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED!!! Welcome to Big Brother. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted October 25, 2020 Report Share Posted October 25, 2020 Some rather light northeast wind here. It's cleared out and now down to 38. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 25, 2020 Report Share Posted October 25, 2020 9 minutes ago, MossMan said: Things can change...Let’s reference the end of November/beginning of December 2008 as a case in point... https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2008/11/thanksgiving-and-upcoming-heat-wave.html?m=1 A sheitty November is actually good news in a Nina year. Many good Nina winters have been preceded by such. That having been said the models could change tomorrow. If 1988 and 1942 are any guide November should end up pretty normal overall. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 25, 2020 Report Share Posted October 25, 2020 As expected there is still some wind around tonight so that will probably mitigate minimum temps tonight. Tomorrow night on the other hand looks perfect to get really cold for most places. Even with some light breeze it has managed to drop to 39 already. I see no reason why many places couldn't drop to freezing by 7 or 8pm tomorrow night. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted October 25, 2020 Report Share Posted October 25, 2020 Gfs is rough, gem not much better. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 25, 2020 Report Share Posted October 25, 2020 00z ECMWF Day 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 25, 2020 Report Share Posted October 25, 2020 Day 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted October 25, 2020 Report Share Posted October 25, 2020 GFS looks great. Maybe a bit dry. This is the perfect time of year to avoid damp and coolish weather, plus my freeze fix will be out of the way with some frozen puddles on Monday morning. I'll take it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 25, 2020 Report Share Posted October 25, 2020 I think a dryish and boring November is a good thing for sure, just like 2008. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 25, 2020 Report Share Posted October 25, 2020 Day 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 25, 2020 Report Share Posted October 25, 2020 43 with a DP of 26 here. Still getting breezy NE gusts so it feels pretty cold outside. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 25, 2020 Report Share Posted October 25, 2020 Given we are in a long term severe drought, squandering the first half of our 2nd wettest month is not good. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 25, 2020 Report Share Posted October 25, 2020 Wife says it is 31 at the house. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 25, 2020 Report Share Posted October 25, 2020 Day 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 25, 2020 Report Share Posted October 25, 2020 CFS has been improving once we get to about November 10th. Storm train gets going and solid pass level snows. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 25, 2020 Report Share Posted October 25, 2020 Day 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted October 25, 2020 Report Share Posted October 25, 2020 9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Given we are in a long term severe drought, squandering the first half of our 2nd wettest month is not good. It doesn't really matter for the most part. It's still too early for Cascade snow to accumulate and not melt out. Any significant rains will simply be dumped out the reservoirs. Fire season is over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 25, 2020 Report Share Posted October 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: CFS has been improving once we get to about November 10th. Storm train gets going and solid pass level snows. This zonal s**tfest should end during the last 10 days of November. Until then..not even a remote chance of anything interesting. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 25, 2020 Report Share Posted October 25, 2020 Tomorrow should be a very nice Sunday. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 25, 2020 Report Share Posted October 25, 2020 Day 8 I think models in 2-3 days are going to look much better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted October 25, 2020 Report Share Posted October 25, 2020 9 minutes ago, Phil said: This zonal s**tfest should end during the last 10 days of November. Until then..not even a remote chance of anything interesting. Yeah with maybe a sunny break. I doubt November will see any cold air though. Gotta wait till December 12th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 25, 2020 Report Share Posted October 25, 2020 Welp, onto 12z runs tomorrow .... Good night all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 25, 2020 Report Share Posted October 25, 2020 Just got home from Maris Farms haunted woods in Buckley....stood in line for two hours to get in.....kinda cold tonight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 25, 2020 Report Share Posted October 25, 2020 1 hour ago, dolt said: It doesn't really matter for the most part. It's still too early for Cascade snow to accumulate and not melt out. Any significant rains will simply be dumped out the reservoirs. Fire season is over. Rain recharges groundwater. It’s a huge part of the water cycle that most people don’t even think about. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 25, 2020 Report Share Posted October 25, 2020 The ECMWF is getting kind of a Nov 1990 look toward the end of the run. Looks like a potential for AR events. Any time you see that two piece high pressure setup over the NC and NE Pacific / PNW things are bound to get interesting. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted October 25, 2020 Report Share Posted October 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The ECMWF is getting kind of a Nov 1990 look toward the end of the run. Looks like a potential for AR events. Any time you see that two piece high pressure setup over the NC and NE Pacific / PNW things are bound to get interesting. Any recent correlation to this "theory", I've seen you post items/tidbits like this before and I'm genuinely curious. Outside of any potential analogs, what's your reasoning behind this Jim? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 25, 2020 Down to 40F DP 34F. Nice chilly-ish night under the stars. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 25, 2020 Report Share Posted October 25, 2020 32F and frost here, first of the year. Could make it into the 20s. Birdbath has a layer of ice. All is good on a cold October night... 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted October 25, 2020 Report Share Posted October 25, 2020 37 degrees with east winds to 28 mph. In October? I'll take it! My yearly low for 2020 is 24.7 degrees, I'm curious if this will fall tonight. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 25, 2020 Report Share Posted October 25, 2020 Wind never died down but sitting at the freezing mark now. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 25, 2020 Report Share Posted October 25, 2020 06z GFS looked a little more reasonable. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 25, 2020 Report Share Posted October 25, 2020 Wind has weakened but still breezy out there. 31˚F with a dew point of 16˚. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 25, 2020 Report Share Posted October 25, 2020 8 hours ago, snow_wizard said: This is a really impressive cold outbreak for this early. Not even midnight and Lynden is at 35 with NE winds gusting to 37, and at the same time Spokane is at 19 with gusty winds. It appears the 850s have bottomed out at -5.5 over SEA (or will shortly). To the best of my knowledge that would make this the coldest continental air mass to strike this early in many decades. Just recorded my first freeze of the season and it never calmed down and decoupled here! I did not expect that to happen. Indeed, an impressively cold outflow event for October. 1 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted October 25, 2020 Report Share Posted October 25, 2020 36 here, but the dp is in the teens after a breezy night. Wind should calm down which will give us a very cold night later. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 25, 2020 Report Share Posted October 25, 2020 NWS is forecasting a low of 22 at EUG tomorrow morning. Not only would that be their coldest October low since 2006, it would be a record for the date. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Posted October 25, 2020 Report Share Posted October 25, 2020 Good morning. 35 here currently and no frost. I expected a few degrees cooler but that's okay. Looks like a nice day ahead for getting some yard work taken care of. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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