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October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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Things can change...Let’s reference the end of November/beginning of December 2008 as a case in point...

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2008/11/thanksgiving-and-upcoming-heat-wave.html?m=1

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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This is a really impressive cold outbreak for this early.  Not even midnight and Lynden is at 35 with NE winds gusting to 37, and at the same time Spokane is at 19 with gusty winds.  It appears the 850s have bottomed out at -5.5 over SEA (or will shortly).  To the best of my knowledge that would make this the coldest continental air mass to strike this early in many decades.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Things can change...Let’s reference the end of November/beginning of December 2008 as a case in point...

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2008/11/thanksgiving-and-upcoming-heat-wave.html?m=1

A sheitty November is actually good news in a Nina year.  Many good Nina winters have been preceded by such.  That having been said the models could change tomorrow.  If 1988 and 1942 are any guide November should end up pretty normal overall.  

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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As expected there is still some wind around tonight so that will probably mitigate minimum temps tonight.  Tomorrow night on the other hand looks perfect to get really cold for most places.  Even with some light breeze it has managed to drop to 39 already.  I see no reason why many places couldn't drop to freezing by 7 or 8pm tomorrow night.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Given we are in a long term severe drought, squandering the first half of our 2nd wettest month is not good. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Wife says it is 31 at the house.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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CFS has been improving once we get to about November 10th. Storm train gets going and solid pass level snows. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Given we are in a long term severe drought, squandering the first half of our 2nd wettest month is not good. 

It doesn't really matter for the most part. It's still too early for Cascade snow to accumulate and not melt out. Any significant rains will simply be dumped out the reservoirs. Fire season is over. 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

CFS has been improving once we get to about November 10th. Storm train gets going and solid pass level snows. 

This zonal s**tfest should end during the last 10 days of November. Until then..not even a remote chance of anything interesting.

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1 hour ago, dolt said:

It doesn't really matter for the most part. It's still too early for Cascade snow to accumulate and not melt out. Any significant rains will simply be dumped out the reservoirs. Fire season is over. 

Rain recharges groundwater. It’s a huge part of the water cycle that most people don’t even think about.

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The ECMWF is getting kind of a Nov 1990 look toward the end of the run.  Looks like a potential for AR events.  Any time you see that two piece high pressure setup over the NC and NE Pacific / PNW things are bound to get interesting.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF is getting kind of a Nov 1990 look toward the end of the run.  Looks like a potential for AR events.  Any time you see that two piece high pressure setup over the NC and NE Pacific / PNW things are bound to get interesting.

Any recent correlation to this "theory", I've seen you post items/tidbits like this before and I'm genuinely curious.

Outside of any potential analogs, what's your reasoning behind this Jim?

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Down to 40F DP 34F. Nice chilly-ish night under the stars.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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32F and frost here, first of the year. Could make it into the 20s. Birdbath has a layer of ice. All is good on a cold October night...

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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06z GFS looked a little more reasonable.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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8 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

This is a really impressive cold outbreak for this early.  Not even midnight and Lynden is at 35 with NE winds gusting to 37, and at the same time Spokane is at 19 with gusty winds.  It appears the 850s have bottomed out at -5.5 over SEA (or will shortly).  To the best of my knowledge that would make this the coldest continental air mass to strike this early in many decades.

Just recorded my first freeze of the season and it never calmed down and decoupled here! I did not expect that to happen. Indeed, an impressively cold outflow event for October.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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NWS is forecasting a low of 22 at EUG tomorrow morning. Not only would that be their coldest October low since 2006, it would be a record for the date. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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