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October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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12z GFS would be much better than dry all the way through. We're entering inversion season now, and the model runs that are entirely dry show some serious air stagnation in western OR.

And it still shows clear skies on Halloween night, so the full moon will be visible if the 12z verifies.

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I think Jim is going to be really happy with the low temps tonight.

If things calm down just a bit the swamp should easily reach the upper 20's.

This could be the winter that a lot of you have been waiting for.  Ridge placement is key.  It may not be what I want but I have a feeling after a warm and wet November the ridging will build into SE Alaska opening up our region to goodies dropping out of the north.  Too close to the coast and Kayla gets all the goodies though.

I really think this winter is going to deliver some exciting model rides.

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8 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

12z GFS would be much better than dry all the way through. We're entering inversion season now, and the model runs that are entirely dry show some serious air stagnation in western OR.

And it still shows clear skies on Halloween night, so the full moon will be visible if the 12z verifies.

Hope you are enjoying the current cold spell. HIO could get into the low to mid 20s tonight.

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44 with a DP of 20 currently. Interested to see how cold we can get tonight...we got down to 30 degrees on 10/30 last year we will see how this cold snap compares. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 hour ago, Acer said:

32 after a low of 27.  Very nice cold snap with the possibility of getting a bit colder tonight.  A beautiful day ahead.

I will be mowing for most likely the last time today, perhaps I will also see our resident bobcat! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Halloween afternoon... no rain and just a band of high clouds which is usually overestimated by the ECMWF.     Almost no mid or low clouds.   

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-clouds_fourpanel-4188800.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_6hr_inch-4188800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The ECMWF shows everything is a go for tonight.  A few patches of high clouds float through at times, but it shows clear or nearly clear much of the time with no wind pretty much anywhere.  SEA could easily be on course for their earliest freeze in forever.  

I'm very pleased with my 34 this morning in spite of a breeze for most of the night.  Currently a very crisp 44.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, El_Nina said:

Seattle averages 37" rain per year; Eugene averages 47". So far this year, Seattle is at 28.34" and Eugene is at 20.68". 

I’m at 48.26” so far on the year. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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54 minutes ago, puyallupjon said:

I think Jim is going to be really happy with the low temps tonight.

If things calm down just a bit the swamp should easily reach the upper 20's.

This could be the winter that a lot of you have been waiting for.  Ridge placement is key.  It may not be what I want but I have a feeling after a warm and wet November the ridging will build into SE Alaska opening up our region to goodies dropping out of the north.  Too close to the coast and Kayla gets all the goodies though.

I really think this winter is going to deliver some exciting model rides.

You seem different this year.  I think some of the strangeness this year has changed many of us in at least subtle ways.  I think for the good in a lot of ways.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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53 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

12z GFS would be much better than dry all the way through. We're entering inversion season now, and the model runs that are entirely dry show some serious air stagnation in western OR.

And it still shows clear skies on Halloween night, so the full moon will be visible if the 12z verifies.

Dang, Saturday, Full moon, Halloween and covid to ruin the party 🎃

Sadly I won’t be setting up my display this year but if kids come I will leave candies out in a bowl. 
 

45* and continued breezy wind

DP 14*

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1 minute ago, Jginmartini said:

Dang, Saturday, Full moon, Halloween and covid to ruin the party 🎃

Sadly I won’t be setting up my display this year but if kids come I will leave candies out in a bowl. 
 

45* and continued breezy wind

DP 14*

That's a great idea.  Just leave the candy bowl out for them to help themselves.  We obviously have to think outside the box this year.  I put up a few decorations for some feeling of normalcy.  

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

43 degrees and a dp of 13 at PDX right now. 

Good stuff. 

Now that is impressive.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I also like how the cold snap has been extended through Tuesday now.  Early on the models had indicated a fast warmup starting Monday night, but now Monday night and Tuesday look solidly below normal.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I don’t think PDX will hit 50 today. DP down to 13 at SLE, this is very impressive.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Probably one of the biggest jaw dropping stats so far is the fact that SEA was colder than McChord, OLM, and Shelton last night.  That is like alternate universe type stuff.  They will probably beat SEA's morning low this evening though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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26 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

You're looking at total precip. 

 

Yeah... that was a really strange way to look at the weather for a particular day.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don’t think PDX will hit 50 today. DP down to 13 at SLE, this is very impressive.

Yeah....they may not even hit 45.  It took a little longer for the chill to get there, but it really has now.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Hoping Halloween is dry...I’m going up to orcas island for a few days on Friday hoping for dry clear conditions for photos. I went up to orcas last Halloween and captured some of the best photos I’ve ever gotten. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Hoping Halloween is dry...I’m going up to orcas island for a few days on Friday hoping for dry clear conditions for photos. I went up to orcas last Halloween and captured some of the best photos I’ve ever gotten. 

Will be a full moon on Halloween. This happens once every 19 years.

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12Z EPS 15-day precipitation anomaly... starting to think Oregon is just cursed.    The place that really needs rain is the most anomalously dry place in all of North America.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-qpf_anom_15day-4923200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It's 6 degrees here...at 2pm, on October 25th...😲 This airmass is incredible.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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57 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That's a great idea.  Just leave the candy bowl out for them to help themselves.  We obviously have to think outside the box this year.  I put up a few decorations for some feeling of normalcy.  

I have a lot of Chevy Chase in me so at the last minute I may go all out!   Two years ago on Halloween I stepped on a nail and it went quite a ways in! Still got the show up and running and have my daughter to thank for that.  Doctor was upset at me for not going to emergency that day when it happened.   The sickness of Holiday fun is real!   
 

47*

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Almost all of the obs in Puget Sound region show dew points in the upper teens to mid 20s right now.  Hard to figure why the NWS doesn't have colder low temps forecast for tonight.  I'm betting most places will achieve the forecasted lows by midnight.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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12 minutes ago, Kayla said:

It's 6 degrees here...at 2pm, on October 25th...😲 This airmass is incredible.

If this is any indication of what will happen this winter....OH BOY!  I think the most likely window for this winter will be late Dec to early Feb.  Right in the sweet spot of the winter.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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