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October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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8 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

I have a lot of Chevy Chase in me so at the last minute I may go all out!   Two years ago on Halloween I stepped on a nail and it went quite a ways in! Still got the show up and running and have my daughter to thank for that.  Doctor was upset at me for not going to emergency that day when it happened.   The sickness of Holiday fun is real!   
 

47*

I had a knack for stepping on nails when I was a kid.  My mom always cleaned it up and took me to get a tetanus shot the next day.  Usually no need for an immediate ER visit.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Canadian guy said:

Only 41 degrees with gusty north east winds in Victoria at 1pm. Impressive.

I'm glad people are really seeing the light on this cold snap now.  If things had set up just a few degrees further west it would have been beyond historic for us.  Probably an early version of October 1935.  As it is...no complaints from me.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, MossMan said:

Scud clouds up here currently. 
43. 

The ECMWF cloud cover forecast showed some clouds today, but very few tonight save a few brief bouts with high clouds.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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This Niña is literally going off the charts. 
 

About half the CFS ensembles today have it peaking around New Years BELOW -3.0C in the 3.4 region.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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An amazing crisp Winter day in Fall with bright blue skies and a really cold, gusty east wind. Temp is 46.3, dewpoint 17. Low temp 36.3. It is looking real dry the next 7-10 days. This is a good time to get any remaining outdoor projects done, raking leaves, mowing the lawn, etc. Nothing else to report at this time.

00z GFS in 6 hours 50 minutes

00z GEM in 7 hours 22 minutes

00z ECMWF in 9 hours 7 minutes

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I'm really impressed how the temperature just stopped rising here a couple of hours ago.  Stuck in the mid 40s since then.  The sun still has a little bit of power this time of year so that's pretty impressive for mid day.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, Deweydog said:

It is quite strange to be sitting in the mid 40’s while half the leaves on our maples are still green.

This could result in some pretty amazing color coming on over the next week if tonight doesn't turn the leaves black.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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9 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

An amazing crisp Winter day in Fall with bright blue skies and a really cold, gusty east wind. Temp is 46.3, dewpoint 17. Low temp 36.3. It is looking real dry the next 7-10 days. This is a good time to get any remaining outdoor projects done, raking leaves, mowing the lawn, etc. Nothing else to report at this time.

00z GFS in 6 hours 50 minutes

00z GEM in 7 hours 22 minutes

00z ECMWF in 9 hours 7 minutes

I did some mowing earlier today.  No doubt the lawn will not be growing anymore this season after tonight.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I did some mowing earlier today.  No doubt the lawn will not be growing anymore this season after tonight.

That is not true.   Our lawn will stop growing and then start again if we have a warmer period with SW flow and rain.    The pattern looks pretty mild coming up.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This could result in some pretty amazing color coming on over the next week if tonight doesn't turn the leaves black.

Black leaves matter!!!

Joe DID say we were heading into a dark winter...

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Black leaves matter!!!

Joe DID say we were heading into a dark winter...

Been a dark weekend for Joe and Hunter. 😱 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 hours ago, MossMan said:

I will be mowing for most likely the last time today, perhaps I will also see our resident bobcat! 

This is definitely my last mowing.  I’ve only seen a bobcat three times in the 38 years I’ve lived here.  Quite a rare treat.

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32 minutes ago, puyallupjon said:

It's going to be insanely cold tonight for this time of year.

I'm curious to see how far the swamp dips tonight.

Hot tubs will be steaming away tonight! 
Still quite breezy here and according to the HRRR it will continue until around 3 am and begin to lighten up.  Still expecting the temperature to be between 29-32 by the time I awake.   

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF cloud cover forecast showed some clouds today, but very few tonight save a few brief bouts with high clouds.

Current satellite view shows a lot of clouds moving down from the north.  Hopefully the forecast is right.  44 here and so far the high for the day with mostly cloudy skies.

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45 and mostly sunny here at 3pm. Breeze is still going but it’s much lighter than it was yesterday. Could end up with a pretty chilly max high temp today. We had high temps of 45 and 46 back in October 2006...and a 46 degree day in 2019 so it won’t be record breaking but still cold for this time of year. 

  • Sun 1

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Acer said:

Current satellite view shows a lot of clouds moving down from the north.  Hopefully the forecast is right.  44 here and so far the high for the day with mostly cloudy skies.

Its moving south and then falls apart.    Models show it should be pretty clear tonight with thin high clouds.   Then low clouds move in during the day tomorrow and stick around though Wednesday... particularly from Seattle northward.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Main thing I’m watching for is a record cold low temp for the month of October. We set a new record last year with a low of 30 on 10/30...hoping to set a new record and dip into the 20s tonight that would really be something! 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Impressively chilly afternoon. High of just 45 so far with gusty east winds. Down to 44 now so that might have been it for the day. DP in the low to mid teens.

The wind has been just about perfect. Strong enough to hold temps down make it feel chilly, but not so strong it’s ripping all the remaining leaves off the trees. Could mean we finally get some good color later this week.

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41 minutes ago, Acer said:

Current satellite view shows a lot of clouds moving down from the north.  Hopefully the forecast is right.  44 here and so far the high for the day with mostly cloudy skies.

Here is a live cam from downtown Vancouver BC looking to the northwest... the clouds are very thin.

 

katkam.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, puyallupjon said:

It's going to be insanely cold tonight for this time of year.

I'm curious to see how far the swamp dips tonight.

I'm puzzled why the NWS is being so conservative on their forecast for tonight.  As I said earlier I expect the forecasted lows to be reached by midnight in a lot of places.  Just nothing to keep it from tanking tonight.  I'm thinking 25 IMBY which is basically is as cold as it ever gets before Oct 28th or so.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Here is a live cam from downtown Vancouver BC looking to the northwest... the clouds are very thin.

 

katkam.png

For sure.  I mentioned earlier the ECMWF cloud forecast feature shows a lot of the night being mostly clear.  For whatever reason I've seen high clouds basically vanish just after sunset in cases like this.   Not sure if it's just been coincidence or whether there is a reason for that.

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  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Looks like 48 will be it for my high today.  Three consecutive max temps below 50 is probably a new benchmark for my personal records this early in the season.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Just NO WAY we don’t get much colder than forecast tonight. Literally NOTHING could go wrong.

I suppose something could spoil it, but I don't see what.  I consider forecasting low temps in these situations to be one of my specialties.  

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Wow. Spokane had 6+ inches of snow (spots up to 8") on Friday and a little bit yesterday too. If this was mentioned already, I just hopped on the forums after days of not posting.

This is so early for that much snow for them that the daily records were 0.2" 10/23 and a TRACE 10/24 in the 1950's. They also broke a monthly snowfall record 6.1" in 1957 with 7.5" at KOTX in 2020. 

Haven't seen my first snow yet but I am very cold today. This is two back to back years where snow/cold came early in the PNW. Montana is at it again with temperatures into the -20 to -30 range. I think Fall is getting colder.

Was 39 at 1pm. 43 now. This might have been the first time I've seen an afternoon temperature reading 30's before Halloween since I came here. Did a few errands and went shopping today, felt like January. If you're not wearing a coat you're on something I'd like to try. ;)

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like 48 will be it for my high today.  Three consecutive max temps below 50 is probably a new benchmark for my personal records this early in the season.

How many did you have last year? I had 4 consecutive sub 50 highs last October and 5 total for the month. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I suppose something could spoil it, but I don't see what.  I consider forecasting low temps in these situations to be one of my specialties.  

I know. I agree it’s a good setup, but it seems like such certainly before the actual event is almost begging for a jinx. Or worse yet for you to be really let down tomorrow if it doesn’t work out.

Sometimes it’s more fun just to let it ride a little.

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

18z= Likable

Agreed. I decided to stay quiet since I mentioned the 12z was decent and someone decided to clown on me over it with their first post in months. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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