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October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

 

No doubt... I imagine us reading about something like this in the distant past and thinking it can never happen again.   Well it just happened in real time.   We don't have to imagine what it was like.  

There’s a lot of off-the-cuff rhetoric about how 19th century/1950 type winters can’t happen today.

Lol, they absolutely 100% can happen today. Sure, it’s less likely (for a number of reasons beyond just global temps), but it can (and inevitably will) happen again when boundary conditions allow.

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

And people say big cold is a thing of the past.🤷‍♂️
Seriously, this is insane.

image.thumb.jpeg.fc1d02295a0f8228b853ad1b7104eb6e.jpeg

3 truly top tier fall blasts for the region since I've been here: 2009, 2014, and 2020.

Locally, Nov 2014 was probably just slightly more impressive, but 2020 takes the cake regionally.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

There’s a lot of off-the-cuff rhetoric about how 19th century/1950 type winters can’t happen today.

Lol, they absolutely 100% can happen today. Sure, it’s less likely (for a number of reasons beyond just global temps), but it can (and inevitably will) happen again when boundary conditions allow.

I agree Phil. The climate goes in cycles. It always has and always will. People who say what happened in the past can not happen again or in our lifetime are just being silly.

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

There’s a lot of off-the-cuff rhetoric about how 19th century/1950 type winters can’t happen today.

Lol, they absolutely 100% can happen today. Sure, it’s less likely (for a number of reasons beyond just global temps), but it can (and inevitably will) happen again when boundary conditions allow.

December 2008 but colder and snowier??

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5 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

I agree Phil. The climate goes in cycles. It always has and always will. People who say what happened in the past can not happen again or in our lifetime are just being silly.

I agree with the general idea. But many cycles are much longer than a human lifetime.

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31 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

NOVEMBER 1985 @snow_wizard

snow3.jpg

1985 stretched further south. 2010/1985/1955 were my top 3 snowiest Novembers.

About the whole cascades stretch in OR/WA was getting nailed.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

There’s a lot of off-the-cuff rhetoric about how 19th century/1950 type winters can’t happen today.

Lol, they absolutely 100% can happen today. Sure, it’s less likely (for a number of reasons beyond just global temps), but it can (and inevitably will) happen again when boundary conditions allow.

Well there will be another ice age some day. But it's probably (99.9%) a fact that a winter like 1861-62 won't happen again in our lifetimes unless we have a few nuclear wars and VEI6 volcanic eruptions. Sucks.

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

Well there will be another ice age some day. But it's probably (99.9%) a fact that a winter like 1861-62 won't happen again in our lifetimes unless we have a few nuclear wars and VEI6 volcanic eruptions. Sucks.

Jim Carrey Chance GIF

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33 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

Well there will be another ice age some day. But it's probably (99.9%) a fact that a winter like 1861-62 won't happen again in our lifetimes unless we have a few nuclear wars and VEI6 volcanic eruptions. Sucks.

I think there’s a distinction to be made here. Of course it’s an extremely unlikely outcome, but that doesn’t mean the system is physically incapable of reproducing said outcome today. It absolutely *can* reproduce it, a number of ways. It’s just somewhat less likely now than it was 150 years ago (and even back then it was an anomaly).

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51 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

1985 stretched further south. 2010/1985/1955 were my top 3 snowiest Novembers.

About the whole cascades stretch in OR/WA was getting nailed.

Yep all the way down the Sierra as well in those years. My house had 60" by Thanksgiving day and a low temp of -8F on Thanksgiving morning 2010. 

We are currently off to the driest Sept/Oct ever recorded in California and it looks to continue until late Nov. 

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3 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Yep all the way down the Sierra as well in those years. My house had 60" by Thanksgiving day and a low temp of -8F on Thanksgiving morning 2010. 

We are currently off to the driest Sept/Oct ever recorded in California and it looks to continue until late Nov. 

I was coming here right after Thanksgiving 2010 and was thinking it's quite normal to have January like snowfall totals (and then some) in late-Fall. From 2011 to 2019 the most snow I've seen in Nov was 6.5" last year.

A CoCoRaHs station here says 12.5" in 2010 and that's with missing data. I combined some notes from my grandmother and that we had a 1 foot depth, came up to 17-20 inches. I settled for 17.0" to be on the safe side. The monthly average is only 4.0". Took me a while to realize how significant 2010 was.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Just now, iFred said:

Wait.

I thought we wanted a warm and wet November as it would lead to a cold late December and January. Doesn't the history of snowy or cold bouts in November usually tell us the rest of the winter is blah at best?

Seemed like all of '10-'11 season was great for skiing after that Thanksgiving blast. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 minute ago, iFred said:

Wait.

I thought we wanted a warm and wet November as it would lead to a cold late December and January. Doesn't the history of snowy or cold bouts in November usually tell us the rest of the winter is blah at best?

Well, any cold airmasses in November will greatly affect the GLAAM, WHAM, and MAWI. What that means for winter really depends on the ENSO and QBO.

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27 minutes ago, iFred said:

Wait.

I thought we wanted a warm and wet November as it would lead to a cold late December and January. Doesn't the history of snowy or cold bouts in November usually tell us the rest of the winter is blah at best?

A very dry October/November regionally is historically a pretty bad sign. Some exceptions like 2013 and 1978 where the majority of the winter stayed blocky and we cashed in. That scenario seems less likely with stronger ENSO.

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2 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

My grandpa talks about November 1985 a lot. One of his favorite weather months. We will see where the models go usually when I think of November and La Niña it usually means a boring November but we will see. 

It was amazing for the 8yr old me! The one morning where school was late but still open I was heading to the end of the road to the bus stop...It started snowing a bit which was fun! Then it just started dumping down and the bus never did come...Most got stuck and they had to cancel school...Best day ever! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It was amazing for the 8yr old me! The one morning where school was late but still open I was heading to the end of the road to the bus stop...It started snowing a bit which was fun! Then it just started dumping down and the bus never did come...Most got stuck and they had to cancel school...Best day ever! 

We had a similar experience waiting for the bus on 2-1-89, along with the added drama of almost being the run over by a fish buyer truck that started sliding into the ditch.  It was a glorious day.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

We had a similar experience waiting for the bus on 2-1-89, along with the added drama of almost being the run over by a fish buyer truck that started sliding into the ditch.  It was a glorious day.

Nearly dying as a kid was just as exciting as a snow day!! It’s the best of both worlds! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 hour ago, MossMan said:

It was amazing for the 8yr old me! The one morning where school was late but still open I was heading to the end of the road to the bus stop...It started snowing a bit which was fun! Then it just started dumping down and the bus never did come...Most got stuck and they had to cancel school...Best day ever! 

What was better November 1985 or February 2019?

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

What was better November 1985 or February 2019?

Both had good longevity and punch...Tough call but I would have to say February 2019 edges 1985 out for me...probably because it’s a little more fresh in my mind. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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24 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

55 and sunny here...warmest day in a week. Interesting gfs run this afternoon. 

Must be interesting in a bad way since nobody is talking about it. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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18z GFS is looking a lot like the EPS very blocky. I'm not sure we see the westerlies take hold with the usual Fall storm train instead heading right back into another cold pattern.

00z GFS in 4 hours 12 minutes

00z ECMWF (Halloween night) in 103 hours 29 minutes

(Wait, does the time change kick in before the 00z EURO or would that be on the following 11/1 runs?)

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