Phil Posted October 27, 2020 Report Share Posted October 27, 2020 6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: No doubt... I imagine us reading about something like this in the distant past and thinking it can never happen again. Well it just happened in real time. We don't have to imagine what it was like. There’s a lot of off-the-cuff rhetoric about how 19th century/1950 type winters can’t happen today. Lol, they absolutely 100% can happen today. Sure, it’s less likely (for a number of reasons beyond just global temps), but it can (and inevitably will) happen again when boundary conditions allow. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 27, 2020 Report Share Posted October 27, 2020 6 minutes ago, Phil said: And people say big cold is a thing of the past. Seriously, this is insane. 3 truly top tier fall blasts for the region since I've been here: 2009, 2014, and 2020. Locally, Nov 2014 was probably just slightly more impressive, but 2020 takes the cake regionally. 3 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted October 27, 2020 Report Share Posted October 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, Phil said: There’s a lot of off-the-cuff rhetoric about how 19th century/1950 type winters can’t happen today. Lol, they absolutely 100% can happen today. Sure, it’s less likely (for a number of reasons beyond just global temps), but it can (and inevitably will) happen again when boundary conditions allow. I agree Phil. The climate goes in cycles. It always has and always will. People who say what happened in the past can not happen again or in our lifetime are just being silly. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 27, 2020 Report Share Posted October 27, 2020 4 minutes ago, Phil said: There’s a lot of off-the-cuff rhetoric about how 19th century/1950 type winters can’t happen today. Lol, they absolutely 100% can happen today. Sure, it’s less likely (for a number of reasons beyond just global temps), but it can (and inevitably will) happen again when boundary conditions allow. December 2008 but colder and snowier?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 27, 2020 Report Share Posted October 27, 2020 33 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Warm across most of the country on the 12Z ECMWF at 240 hours... 12Z EPS agrees with the ECMWF at day 10... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 27, 2020 Report Share Posted October 27, 2020 We did it guys. We defeated climate change!!! 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 27, 2020 Report Share Posted October 27, 2020 5 minutes ago, AbbyJr said: I agree Phil. The climate goes in cycles. It always has and always will. People who say what happened in the past can not happen again or in our lifetime are just being silly. I agree with the general idea. But many cycles are much longer than a human lifetime. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 27, 2020 Report Share Posted October 27, 2020 12Z EPS starts showing troughing closer by 300 hours. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 27, 2020 Report Share Posted October 27, 2020 31 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: NOVEMBER 1985 @snow_wizard 1985 stretched further south. 2010/1985/1955 were my top 3 snowiest Novembers. About the whole cascades stretch in OR/WA was getting nailed. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 27, 2020 Report Share Posted October 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, Phil said: There’s a lot of off-the-cuff rhetoric about how 19th century/1950 type winters can’t happen today. Lol, they absolutely 100% can happen today. Sure, it’s less likely (for a number of reasons beyond just global temps), but it can (and inevitably will) happen again when boundary conditions allow. Well there will be another ice age some day. But it's probably (99.9%) a fact that a winter like 1861-62 won't happen again in our lifetimes unless we have a few nuclear wars and VEI6 volcanic eruptions. Sucks. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 27, 2020 Report Share Posted October 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Well there will be another ice age some day. But it's probably (99.9%) a fact that a winter like 1861-62 won't happen again in our lifetimes unless we have a few nuclear wars and VEI6 volcanic eruptions. Sucks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 27, 2020 Report Share Posted October 27, 2020 12Z EPS day 14... 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 27, 2020 Report Share Posted October 27, 2020 12Z EPS is really dry for the next 2 weeks... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 27, 2020 Report Share Posted October 27, 2020 November 1985. 2 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 27, 2020 Report Share Posted October 27, 2020 54 and sunny here... just a perfect late October day. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted October 27, 2020 Report Share Posted October 27, 2020 Michael Jackson is never coming back. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 27, 2020 Report Share Posted October 27, 2020 5 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: Michael Jackson is never coming back. Maybe in the next cycle. Stop thinking inside the box. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 27, 2020 Report Share Posted October 27, 2020 33 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Well there will be another ice age some day. But it's probably (99.9%) a fact that a winter like 1861-62 won't happen again in our lifetimes unless we have a few nuclear wars and VEI6 volcanic eruptions. Sucks. I think there’s a distinction to be made here. Of course it’s an extremely unlikely outcome, but that doesn’t mean the system is physically incapable of reproducing said outcome today. It absolutely *can* reproduce it, a number of ways. It’s just somewhat less likely now than it was 150 years ago (and even back then it was an anomaly). 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 27, 2020 Report Share Posted October 27, 2020 24 minutes ago, Deweydog said: November 1985. Microsoft Windows 1.0 is released. 1 1 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 27, 2020 Report Share Posted October 27, 2020 10 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Microsoft Windows 1.0 is released. And Bill Gates invented Covid-19. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted October 27, 2020 Report Share Posted October 27, 2020 51 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said: 1985 stretched further south. 2010/1985/1955 were my top 3 snowiest Novembers. About the whole cascades stretch in OR/WA was getting nailed. Yep all the way down the Sierra as well in those years. My house had 60" by Thanksgiving day and a low temp of -8F on Thanksgiving morning 2010. We are currently off to the driest Sept/Oct ever recorded in California and it looks to continue until late Nov. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 27, 2020 Report Share Posted October 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, AlTahoe said: Yep all the way down the Sierra as well in those years. My house had 60" by Thanksgiving day and a low temp of -8F on Thanksgiving morning 2010. We are currently off to the driest Sept/Oct ever recorded in California and it looks to continue until late Nov. I was coming here right after Thanksgiving 2010 and was thinking it's quite normal to have January like snowfall totals (and then some) in late-Fall. From 2011 to 2019 the most snow I've seen in Nov was 6.5" last year. A CoCoRaHs station here says 12.5" in 2010 and that's with missing data. I combined some notes from my grandmother and that we had a 1 foot depth, came up to 17-20 inches. I settled for 17.0" to be on the safe side. The monthly average is only 4.0". Took me a while to realize how significant 2010 was. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 27, 2020 Report Share Posted October 27, 2020 Just now, iFred said: Wait. I thought we wanted a warm and wet November as it would lead to a cold late December and January. Doesn't the history of snowy or cold bouts in November usually tell us the rest of the winter is blah at best? Seemed like all of '10-'11 season was great for skiing after that Thanksgiving blast. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted October 27, 2020 Report Share Posted October 27, 2020 1 minute ago, iFred said: Wait. I thought we wanted a warm and wet November as it would lead to a cold late December and January. Doesn't the history of snowy or cold bouts in November usually tell us the rest of the winter is blah at best? Well, any cold airmasses in November will greatly affect the GLAAM, WHAM, and MAWI. What that means for winter really depends on the ENSO and QBO. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 27, 2020 Report Share Posted October 27, 2020 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 27, 2020 Report Share Posted October 27, 2020 27 minutes ago, iFred said: Wait. I thought we wanted a warm and wet November as it would lead to a cold late December and January. Doesn't the history of snowy or cold bouts in November usually tell us the rest of the winter is blah at best? A very dry October/November regionally is historically a pretty bad sign. Some exceptions like 2013 and 1978 where the majority of the winter stayed blocky and we cashed in. That scenario seems less likely with stronger ENSO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 27, 2020 Report Share Posted October 27, 2020 2 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said: My grandpa talks about November 1985 a lot. One of his favorite weather months. We will see where the models go usually when I think of November and La Niña it usually means a boring November but we will see. It was amazing for the 8yr old me! The one morning where school was late but still open I was heading to the end of the road to the bus stop...It started snowing a bit which was fun! Then it just started dumping down and the bus never did come...Most got stuck and they had to cancel school...Best day ever! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted October 27, 2020 Report Share Posted October 27, 2020 Has anyone said it yet? Beautiful day. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 27, 2020 Report Share Posted October 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, MossMan said: It was amazing for the 8yr old me! The one morning where school was late but still open I was heading to the end of the road to the bus stop...It started snowing a bit which was fun! Then it just started dumping down and the bus never did come...Most got stuck and they had to cancel school...Best day ever! We had a similar experience waiting for the bus on 2-1-89, along with the added drama of almost being the run over by a fish buyer truck that started sliding into the ditch. It was a glorious day. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 27, 2020 Report Share Posted October 27, 2020 1985Z IS RUNNING!!! 4 2 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 27, 2020 Report Share Posted October 27, 2020 8 minutes ago, Deweydog said: We had a similar experience waiting for the bus on 2-1-89, along with the added drama of almost being the run over by a fish buyer truck that started sliding into the ditch. It was a glorious day. Nearly dying as a kid was just as exciting as a snow day!! It’s the best of both worlds! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 27, 2020 Report Share Posted October 27, 2020 I know the ENSO models have been going nuts, but through September this Nina is easily weaker than years like 2010, 1998, 1988, etc. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 27, 2020 Report Share Posted October 27, 2020 8 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: I know the ENSO models have been going nuts, but through September this Nina is easily weaker than years like 2010, 1998, 1988, etc. This is great/terrible news. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 27, 2020 Report Share Posted October 27, 2020 12 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: I know the ENSO models have been going nuts, but through September this Nina is easily weaker than years like 2010, 1998, 1988, etc. 2007 and 1970 are probably the best ENSO matches to this year. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 27, 2020 Report Share Posted October 27, 2020 55 and sunny here...warmest day in a week. Interesting gfs run this afternoon. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 27, 2020 Report Share Posted October 27, 2020 1 hour ago, MossMan said: It was amazing for the 8yr old me! The one morning where school was late but still open I was heading to the end of the road to the bus stop...It started snowing a bit which was fun! Then it just started dumping down and the bus never did come...Most got stuck and they had to cancel school...Best day ever! What was better November 1985 or February 2019? 2 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 27, 2020 Report Share Posted October 27, 2020 1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said: What was better November 1985 or February 2019? Both had good longevity and punch...Tough call but I would have to say February 2019 edges 1985 out for me...probably because it’s a little more fresh in my mind. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 27, 2020 Report Share Posted October 27, 2020 24 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: 55 and sunny here...warmest day in a week. Interesting gfs run this afternoon. Must be interesting in a bad way since nobody is talking about it. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 27, 2020 Report Share Posted October 27, 2020 18z GFS is looking a lot like the EPS very blocky. I'm not sure we see the westerlies take hold with the usual Fall storm train instead heading right back into another cold pattern. 00z GFS in 4 hours 12 minutes 00z ECMWF (Halloween night) in 103 hours 29 minutes (Wait, does the time change kick in before the 00z EURO or would that be on the following 11/1 runs?) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 28, 2020 Report Share Posted October 28, 2020 18z GEFS with similar ideas 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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