October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

2006 was MUCH much shorter duration.

But it was one hell of an epic week here!!! 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

That's dope! How great was the winter of 68-69? Ik Seattle got slammed that winter

I remember two things from that winter.  One was my dad thawing frozen pipes with a torch in December, and the other opening the front door and having snow up to my eyeballs in January.  Incredible one two punch that winter, and also a lesser known mini cold snap and snow in mid December.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

10 minutes ago, luminen said:

Statistically, November 1985 was even more significant than January 1950.

There was some article on that somewhere but I don't know where it is anymore.

Anyway, November 1985 is and was, the gold standard. It may not have been as snowy as January 1950 was but solely on temperature anomaly, it was incredible.

One of my favorite months.  I was in Bellingham at college.  iIRC, it didn't start with a major blast with high winds like other arctic blasts do in Whatcom County, more of a gradual cool down, but it got plenty cold.  I remember single digits.  

Frustrating for awhile because it seemed like it snowed hard everywhere but Bellingham, which seemed to only get a little bit.

Then came the Tuesday before Thanksgiving.  My favorite snowstorm ever.  Forecast was for a chance if a flurry.  I had 3 straight classes; 9, 10, & 11.  Clear before the first class, a few clouds between the 1st and 2nd, cloudy between the 2nd and 3rd, and then threatening snow after the 3rd.

Went to Pizza Hut with a buddy for lunch.  They had a deal where they serve your personal pan pizza in 15 minutes or less, or your pizza was free. We got the free pizzas, but it had started to snow.  Then my friend locked his keys in the car as the snow increased.  Got a coat hanger to open the door, he dropped me off near my dorm so he could get home before it got too bad 

I watched it snow, and snow, and snow.  Next morning the city was so quiet, so peaceful.  Classes were cancelled, but many students couldn't make it home for Thanksgiving, so they had to keep the dorms open for the weekend.  And then had to find food for them.  We made it back to my home in Anaxortesnjidt fine.  I think the warm-up started that Sunday.

Funny how I can remember so many details of that day, 35 years ago.

[markjb]

68-69 I was living on So Hill ... what I remember from that winter is a snow storm that lasted for almost 24 hours and deep.Then it got very,very cold down to near zero if I remember!!

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 3

[TigerWoodsLibido]

What will the king show us?

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Analog Composite

Day 8-14. Not bad at all.

 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Dodgers and Lakers winning the same year really elevates the 1988 analog.

Was an election year too.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Ensembles

Portland

Seattle

Bellingham

Spokane

Yakima

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 5

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

[snow_wizard]

16 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GFS Analog Composite

Day 8-14. Not bad at all.

 

Some of those analogs are a bit of alright!

[snow_wizard]

I have to say the ECMWF cloud forecasts have been utter sheit the past few days.  This morning's 6z run showed the cloud line would be on the WA / OR border tonight and it's clear as a bell here right now.  Sunday night was supposed to be mostly clear all the way through and we know what happened with that, and last night was supposed to be reasonably clear here and it was cloudy all night.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[SouthHillFrosty]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 7

Block looks a little weaker than the gfs and gem?

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Block looks a little weaker than the gfs and gem?

That cutoff low and the Aleutian high are the things to watch.  Both look pretty decent at day 7.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[snow_wizard]

OMG!

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 8

Looks like a winner to me.

[snow_wizard]

I can't believe how similar the three models look around days 7 and 8.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Still 53F here, it warmed up to about this temperature by 3pm then just got stuck there until now.

[snow_wizard]

I always like these situations where an Aleutian High and a flat ridge off the West Coast explosively merge.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 9'er

 

Holy Mother of God!

[snow_wizard]

The day 9 Euro shows it blocked up to and around the Pole.  We might be getting ourselves into something pretty good here.

[Deweydog]

****ALERT****

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 .. That'll work

[snow_wizard]

Day 10 = Historic blast incoming for so early.  Hard to not be intrigued after what just happened.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

41 and clear. 

[snow_wizard]

Probably snow if that setup verifies.  Truly stunning all three models picked up on this at the same time.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Probably snow if that setup verifies.  Truly stunning all three models picked up on this at the same time.

Insane agreement for sure along the lines of 2008 dare I say? C'MON!!!!

6z GFS in 2 hours 25 minutes

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Day 10 = Historic blast incoming for so early.  Hard to not be intrigued after what just happened.

-4c?

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

-4c?

Was gonna say, the arctic air is still up at Williams Lake on Day 10.

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

-4c?

-4.1c*

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice pattern, but let’s remember we are still talking about early November...

[Gradient Keeper]

17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Day 10 = Historic blast incoming for so early.  Hard to not be intrigued after what just happened.

Extrapolating beyond Day 10 would it definitely turn cold.

12z ECMWF in 10 hour 28 minutes

[Deweydog]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Extrapolating beyond Day 10 would it definitely turn cold.

12z ECMWF in 10 hour 28 minutes

I’ve had my easel and Bob Ross books out for 23 minutes now.  

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nice pattern, but let’s remember we are still talking about early November...

It would be unreal to have two record cold patterns happen in such a short span this early in the season.  I'm pretty sure the ECMWF solution would yield snow at day 11 somewhere in the lowlands.  Going to be fun to see how this evolves in future runs.

[Gradient Keeper]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I’ve had my easel and Bob Ross books out for 23 minutes now.  

The official Bob Ross easel? or just a knock-off?

[Deweydog]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

The official Bob Ross easel? or just a knock-off?

Off brand.