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October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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45 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

 Why don't you post stuff like this on a forum where people understand it? There is an American weather forum that is actually based around the eastern US. Or were you banned from that website at some point? 

Go away Pedro. 🙂

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Nice backdoor shot of cool air on the 12z. Frosty mornings. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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This is impressive. 

WeatherStory1.png?38966f1a6b52bf5ad66ad8e5399e6a41

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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@Phil What happen to the zonal flow coming for the first half of November? Not trying to call you out just curious on the sudden shift to more GOA blocking on the models. It's obviously not the progression you were expecting correct?

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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30 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Condolences on the ban. 

Can we ban dweebs who bîtch about others’ posts while contributing zilch to any meaningful discussion? It’s just wasted bandwidth. 

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1 minute ago, Kayla said:

@Phil What happen to the zonal flow coming for the first half of November? Not trying to call you out just curious on the sudden shift to more GOA blocking on the models. It's obviously not the progression you were expecting correct?

**throws down a cloud of acronyms to distract us and disappears**

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7 minutes ago, Kayla said:

@Phil What happen to the zonal flow coming for the first half of November? Not trying to call you out just curious on the sudden shift to more GOA blocking on the models. It's obviously not the progression you were expecting correct?

Call me out anytime. I screw up quite frequently.

As modeled, the upcoming pattern looks quite zonal to me (+NAM, broad middle latitude anticyclones). The jet is just somewhat farther north than I thought it would be.

Suspected blocking would return during the last 10 days of November. Maybe it’ll happen sooner?

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52 and cloudy here. Kind of a meh weather day. Hoping things can get more active next month. This October did have a decent thunderstorm roll through on 10/13 and some decent cold. However for the most part it was warmer than average with near average rainfall month. No big whoop here locally. Unfortunately cloud cover messed up what could have been record cold lows. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Call me out whenever. I screw up all the time.

As modeled, the upcoming pattern looks quite zonal to me (+NAM, broad middle latitude anticyclones). The jet is just somewhat farther north than I thought it would be.

 

This is considered zonal?

gfs_z500a_namer_41.pnggem_z500a_namer_41.png

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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4 minutes ago, Kayla said:

This is considered zonal?

gfs_z500a_namer_41.pnggem_z500a_namer_41.png

No, that’s quite meridional.

What comes before it is zonal, though.

image.thumb.png.7a810322588fae8e6123273e6f1f3944.png
 

We’ll see what happens with the longer range projections. It’s an interesting development.

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Doing some comparison on this years late October cold snap vs the late October 2019 cold snap. Not even close here. I know other locations in western WA fared better than me though. Also added in October 2006 as well. 
 October 2020

10/23 52/39, 10/24 48/42

10/25 46/38, 10/26 48/35

 October 2019

10/28 48/32, 10/29 46/34

10/30 49/30, 10/31 48/32

 October 2006

 10/30 45/35, 10/31 46/34

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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October 2019 was on another level. Had a 59/36 day on 10/1...and then 49/39 on 10/9 and 54/32 on 10/10 to add to the impressive month. Was cold all the way through. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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I had four straight days of highs below 50°F and a trace of frozen precipitation out of the recent cold snap. That’s pretty darn good for October, and at the bleeding optimistic edge of what I considered to be the range of reasonably expectable outcomes.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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10 minutes ago, Phil said:

No, that’s quite meridional.

What comes before it is zonal, though.

image.thumb.png.7a810322588fae8e6123273e6f1f3944.png
 

We’ll see what happens with the longer range projections. It’s an interesting development.

Right, I guess I should have clarified that I was speaking about days 9+ which is still early November.

Makes you wonder how much of an effect the lack in Arctic sea ice is having this Fall. So far it appears to be keeping things more meridional than expected.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Morning lows

PDX: 40

SLE: 35

EUG: 30

 

Quite the gradient there.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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10 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Doing some comparison on this years late October cold snap vs the late October 2019 cold snap. Not even close here. I know other locations in western WA fared better than me though. Also added in October 2006 as well. 
 October 2020

10/23 52/39, 10/24 48/42

10/25 46/38, 10/26 48/35

 October 2019

10/28 48/32, 10/29 46/34

10/30 49/30, 10/31 48/32

 October 2006

 10/30 45/35, 10/31 46/34

Here the last few days were

10/23: 44/39, 10/24: 49/31, 10/25: 45/27, 10/26: 45/31

which was significantly better than last year (although I don't have the data because weather station history crashed at the end of October 2019).

 

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

PDX hit 38. Ultimately you win though, for making me waste 20 seconds of my life to clarify that ;)

I just looked at the 11am obs and the 6hr min. So they must have hit 38 prior to 5am. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Twelvesy ensembles.

707C780D-8AA4-4455-BA08-08CF2D13DC1F.png.adbbd8e49aedf926c861b9d43d7897d5.png

Thank you Uncle Jessi

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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50 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Please don’t flatter him. Intelligence is the ability to make jargon like that accessible to the layman.

I dunno ever since Culver Josh said the exact same thing 50 times anytime someone said anything even remotely technical I'm not so sure.

Anyway it's surely not "intelligence" that does that. That's more communication. I work with some incredibly talented and intelligent engineers who are simply incapable of condensing their thoughts for, say, the marketing dept.

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Just now, Omegaraptor said:

B5E99E27-3CB6-4475-BCE9-96491C5475C8.png.bc0c45d6b926c36db8b991045ca76272.png

 

Long range ridging signal on Anchorage ensembles goes with long range cold on western US ensembles.

Thank you for sharing Raptor

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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EUG Ensemble.png

Some members getting close to that 'Magic -8 Ball'.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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7 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Right, I guess I should have clarified that I was speaking about days 9+ which is still early November.

Makes you wonder how much of an effect the lack in Arctic sea ice is having this Fall. So far it appears to be keeping things more meridional than expected.

I don’t think it’s the sea ice. One recurring theme in recent years is a broad IPWP manipulating mass/momentum fluxes & RWB behavior, relatively increasing the deposition of westerly momentum in the tropics, which offers an easier dynamic conduit to -EPO and/or +TNH type patterns.

I’m sorry if that sounds like jargon.

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

EUG Ensemble.png

Some members getting close to that 'Magic -8 Ball'.

Prepare for disappointment.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, DJ Droppin said:

12z ECMWF Day 6

 

OMG are we really doing this?!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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6 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

I dunno ever since Culver Josh said the exact same thing 50 times anytime someone said anything even remotely technical I'm not so sure.

Anyway it's surely not "intelligence" that does that. That's more communication. I work with some incredibly talented and intelligent engineers who are simply incapable of condensing their thoughts for, say, the marketing dept.

Problem is I lack communication skills and intelligence. 😂

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