Phil Posted October 29, 2020 Report Share Posted October 29, 2020 6 hours ago, Jesse said: You make some decent points, Mr. Hutz. It probably has more to do with his history here than anything. Its hard for me to buy that he is simply incapable of communicating his thoughts, though. Phil can be very lucid when he wants to be. Seems like it wouldn’t be too hard to say what he thinks what will happen with the pattern going forward and, since this is indeed a NW weather subforum, how it may affect us. It seems like he mainly does the acronym stuff because a) it’s a nice smokescreen to keep his predictions good and vague, and b) because, as has been mentioned, he of course craves attention and it’s a tried and proven way to quickly poke the hornet nest here. Seeing it from that standpoint it is perhaps more understandable why he tends to draw such an seemingly inordinate amount of ire for the acronymbics. 2 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 29, 2020 Report Share Posted October 29, 2020 2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said: Phil was advertising a blocky winter. Looking a lot like 1985 so far. Didn’t think it’d start this soon though. Might be best not to listen to me. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted October 29, 2020 Report Share Posted October 29, 2020 It's 2020. Anything can happen. I'm going all in and saying we get a January 1950 redux at some point this winter. Might not be during actual January though. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 29, 2020 Report Share Posted October 29, 2020 13 minutes ago, Phil said: Didn’t think it’d start this soon though. Might be best not to listen to me. Do you have any reason to expect this blocking to last this winter? I'm assuming it's just season-transitional noise right now but you know more on the subject than I do. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 29, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 29, 2020 I liken Phil to a sports-betting sharp. He is pretty decent at the long term stuff. 3 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather1011 Posted October 29, 2020 Report Share Posted October 29, 2020 40 minutes ago, Phil said: I don't know man.. I think Jesse kinda has a point, You clearly are smart but you don't ever try to explain in ways people can understand. I'm not sure if that's because you don't want to, or just don't care to but you can't expect 99 percent of people to fully understand what you are grasping at with your fancy words etc. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 29, 2020 Report Share Posted October 29, 2020 1 hour ago, snow_wizard said: It's truly remarkable how all of the models show the pattern unfolding in exactly the same way next week. They have obviously picked up on something pretty major. In case you are wondering there has never been a season that I'm aware of that had two significant cold snaps in the October 20 to November 10 time frame. It will be truly exceptional if it happens. 1919? 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted October 29, 2020 Report Share Posted October 29, 2020 Some spicy wind gusts near New Orleans from Zeta. The 114 looks a little suspect, but the 104 and 101 seem legit and it looks like the highest gust in the city was 97. Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 29, 2020 Report Share Posted October 29, 2020 21 minutes ago, Weather1011 said: I don't know man.. I think Jesse kinda has a point, You clearly are smart but you don't ever try to explain in ways people can understand. I'm not sure if that's because you don't want to, or just don't care to but you can't expect 99 percent of people to fully understand what you are grasping at with your fancy words etc. I appreciate the feedback. Had a 15 minute break between online classes, and sort of let my consciousness spill out earlier today. Those other theories are amusing though not accurate in this case. But whatever. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 29, 2020 Report Share Posted October 29, 2020 46 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Do you have any reason to expect this blocking to last this winter? I'm assuming it's just season-transitional noise right now but you know more on the subject than I do. The low levels of solar activity increase the odds of NH blockiness persisting. Last winter does not disprove that, for those that love to point that out but then ignore late winter 2019 and fall 2019. Along with some pretty impressive blocking patterns already this fall. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 29, 2020 Report Share Posted October 29, 2020 11 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: 1919? I figured if anyone knew of one it would be you. Very interesting to say the least! 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 29, 2020 Report Share Posted October 29, 2020 14 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: 1919? Oh my god. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 29, 2020 Report Share Posted October 29, 2020 6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: The low levels of solar activity increase the odds of NH blockiness persisting. Last winter does not disprove that, for those that love to point that out but then ignore late winter 2019 and fall 2019. Along with some pretty impressive blocking patterns already this fall. If the block being advertised materializes that will be 3 mega blocks already this season (the first one being September). Way different than anything seen in the modern era. Solar is certainly the number one suspect. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 29, 2020 Report Share Posted October 29, 2020 I was impressed with the low level push of cold air with this past weeks “blast.” Offshore winds gusted to about 30mph at the weather station near our place. Pretty impressive for offshore flow here. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 29, 2020 Report Share Posted October 29, 2020 45 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: I liken Phil to a sports-betting sharp. He is pretty decent at the long term stuff. No doubt he is. Which is one reason it would be nice to be able to understand him better. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 29, 2020 Report Share Posted October 29, 2020 Mostly sunny and 62/34 here today. Nice day. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 29, 2020 Report Share Posted October 29, 2020 This cold snap being advertised looks very much like the last one except the placement of the block is a bit more favorable for delivering cold to the Western Lowlands. Another Fraser River event! The way the models are all handling the details so similarly gives me slightly higher than average confidence it will happen. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted October 29, 2020 Report Share Posted October 29, 2020 39 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: If the block being advertised materializes that will be 3 mega blocks already this season (the first one being September). Way different than anything seen in the modern era. Solar is certainly the number one suspect. But Jim, we need Omega Blocks!!!! Not mega!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 29, 2020 Report Share Posted October 29, 2020 Here we go!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 29, 2020 Report Share Posted October 29, 2020 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Here we go!!!! I am betting the house it will show a snowstorm 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted October 29, 2020 Report Share Posted October 29, 2020 37 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: This cold snap being advertised looks very much like the last one except the placement of the block is a bit more favorable for delivering cold to the Western Lowlands. Another Fraser River event! The way the models are all handling the details so similarly gives me slightly higher than average confidence it will happen. This within ten days? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lisa0527 Posted October 29, 2020 Report Share Posted October 29, 2020 4 hours ago, iFred said: I wish those guys would say hello more often. Hi! 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 29, 2020 Report Share Posted October 29, 2020 2 minutes ago, Lisa0527 said: Hi! I remember you. Howdy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHawks Posted October 29, 2020 Report Share Posted October 29, 2020 NOAA in their long range forecast discussion is hinting at possible pattern change in the latter part of next week. It was somewhat cryptic so the specifics are in the tea leaves. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 29, 2020 Report Share Posted October 29, 2020 00z GFS Day 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 29, 2020 Report Share Posted October 29, 2020 Day 5 Aleutian ridge emerging Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 29, 2020 Report Share Posted October 29, 2020 Day 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 29, 2020 Report Share Posted October 29, 2020 Day 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 29, 2020 Report Share Posted October 29, 2020 Day 8 Meh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted October 29, 2020 Report Share Posted October 29, 2020 8 hours ago, Deweydog said: A don’t think we see a repeat until the current woke generation can manage to get a bunch of middle aged men to sit around and put on makeup together. I have had this song stuck in my D**n head all day. I know, I only have myself to blame for it... Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 29, 2020 Report Share Posted October 29, 2020 Day 9'er Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 29, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 29, 2020 Solid chilly shot appears to be what we are looking at. Hopefully some good freezes at night. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted October 29, 2020 Report Share Posted October 29, 2020 Looking like the little system on the 30/31 probably won't even amount to any measurable rain for the willamette valley. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 29, 2020 Report Share Posted October 29, 2020 From an amateur eye, the GFS is about to make something DROP. Block pivoting, LW trough exiting high latitude heights amplification, cold anoms following along w/ it inland. Total fantasy range but awesome to see play out. Hope I'm right! 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 29, 2020 Report Share Posted October 29, 2020 Day 10 Here we go. We want to see this at Day 3 though, not Day 10. C'MON!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 29, 2020 Report Share Posted October 29, 2020 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 10 Here we go. We want to see this at Day 3 though, not Day 10. C'MON!!!! Wish we had a colder pool up north to reinforce it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 29, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 29, 2020 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 10 Here we go. We want to see this at Day 3 though, not Day 10. C'MON!!!! Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 29, 2020 Report Share Posted October 29, 2020 00z GEM Day 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 29, 2020 Report Share Posted October 29, 2020 It definitely dropped, but not quite cold enough for those *pristine* ban-worthy long range snowmaps. I guess that's what happens when you "drop it" in early November in 2020. Gonna have to wait few more weeks w/ the state of our arctic and climate. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 29, 2020 Report Share Posted October 29, 2020 2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Wish we had a colder pool up north to reinforce it There’s a pool of chilly, unfrozen seawater somewhere up there. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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