October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Meatyorologist]

Fun run. Probably within the upper 0.1% of potential solutions, but nice to see unfold regardless. Subfreezing highs in early Nov w/ 2-5" of snow region-wide.

Also nice to see Eugene get a storm. Truly a ban-worthy run.

[Meatyorologist]

Severe cold on these runs are likely responsive due to agreement on high block strength and building snowpack in western Canada. Obviously overdone as terrain features are regularly underimplimented.

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Severe cold on these runs are likely responsive due to agreement on high block strength and building snowpack in western Canada. Obviously overdone as terrain features are regularly underimplimented.

Bitter air in western Canada on this run was in place by Day 7-8. One of the main factors we need. Still so far out there, but if we see models look like this in 3-4 days it will be hard to not be enthusiastic or giddy!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Severe cold on these runs are likely responsive due to agreement on high block strength and building snowpack in western Canada. Obviously overdone as terrain features are regularly underimplimented.

Oh yeah, doesn't the FV3 like completely disregard the mtns in terms of cold reaching us in the longer-range?

Regardless, awesome night shift! Easily the best one yet. IDGAF about this probly being a massive cold outlier. I love the eye-candy.

[Meatyorologist]

My last post, it'll be brief:

Sunday night has a BC slider signature w/ a low-level vortmax off the WA and divergence upstream over the Sound at about 700mb. Arctic air ripping out over the sea over Haida Gwaii, being wrapped around the SE of the low, providing low-level moisture advection into the entire area. Weak low providing SW flow in the South Sound colliding w/ Arctic front at the surface in the Central Sound. CLASSIC. Makes my mouth water.

I'm no professional, but I'm sure NWS mets would be calling for isolated totals of 5"+ were this run dished do them within 72 hours. This has overperformance written all over it in a real-life scenario.

But too bad this isn't real life. This won't pass, unfortunately. Sometimes I wish I lived in fantasyland...

[Meatyorologist]

7 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Oh yeah, doesn't the FV3 like completely disregard the mtns in terms of cold reaching us in the longer-range?

Regardless, awesome night shift! Easily the best one yet. IDGAF about this probly being a massive cold outlier. I love the eye-candy.

I know! It's completely impossible for this to pan out, and we know that. It's not about whether it will happen. It's like an art form, though instead of a canvas there is Fortran, and instead of a paintbrush there are differential equations, and instead of an easel there are observations.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Ensembles say operational is a cold outlier, no surprise.

[snow_wizard]

Historic 6z run to say the least.  Records would be crushed.

[jakerepp]

2 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Ensembles say operational is a cold outlier, no surprise.

Too early in the year to have high expectations.

[MossMan]

The only negativity I want to see on the forum.,

[MossMan]

Was very windy with a dry deck at 4am, now it’s breezy, mostly cloudy, and a wet deck. .15” so far on the day. 
47 degrees. 

[Jbolin]

7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The only negativity I want to see on the forum.,

Wow, several of those members have either crept to or nosed over the mean in the last couple weeks. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Ready for a major crash back to reality on the morning runs?

[Jbolin]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Ready for a major crash back to reality on the morning runs?

You know it's coming 

[jakerepp]

4 minutes ago, Jbolin said:

You know it's coming 

Hopefully. 2020 has been so kind to us, we don't need to be spoiled with early season goods. 

[FroYoBro]

Light rain here this morning. Ahhhhhh!

[TacomaWaWx]

Absolutely beautiful ferry ride into the San Juan’s this morning. Big waves through the Rosario strait. Was pretty stormy and windy at the beginning but was calm and sunny by the end. 

[FroYoBro]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Absolutely beautiful ferry ride into the San Juan’s this morning. Big waves through the Rosario strait. Was pretty stormy and windy at the beginning but was calm and sunny by the end. 

Looks fun. Hope you have a nice weekend!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

06z GFS run was definitely on the colder side, but there are a few ensemble members that show similar cold so it's at least within the realm of possibilities.

Overall a big move towards a moist regime.

[Jesse]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Overall a big move towards a moist regime.

We can only pray  

[FroYoBro]

The models have been surprisingly consistent with that trough at the end of next week. Looks like nice November weather.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Bachelor gon' get buried.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

TOUCHDOWN AGAIN!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some pretty wild outlier GFS runs. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Colder than last night. 522 thickness line makes it to EUG lol.

[Jesse]

Light rain and 48 this morning, after a low of 42.

Just .03” so far.

[Omegaraptor]

Actual Arctic air kinda gets stuck at the 49th parallel and peters out but this is an exceptional mountain snow run for this time of year. 

Bachelor and Willamette Pass opening by November 10?

[jakerepp]

1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Actual Arctic air kinda gets stuck at the 49th parallel and peters out but this is an exceptional mountain snow run for this time of year. 

Bachelor and Willamette Pass opening by November 10?

Treasure Valley completely skunked 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Somebody is getting some snow with this pattern

[TigerWoodsLibido]

An absolute burial for the Oregon Cascades.

[mtep]

Very pretty day up here. Fall colors are really starting to pop.

[Omegaraptor]

Can we get a repeat of last year’s bomb cyclone except it tracks about 250-300 miles farther north? And comes about two weeks later?

[SouthHillFrosty]

5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

An absolute burial for the Oregon Cascades.

Almost 50 inches for southern Oregon. Crazy

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Can we get a repeat of last year’s bomb cyclone except it tracks about 250-300 miles farther north? And comes about two weeks later?

Let's keep it in the same spot and increase the moisture to the north. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM is not as crazy as the GFS, but it is pretty chilly too. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

For the Willamette Valley, October will end up just slightly above average temperature wise. Not bad considering how badly we torched early in the month. 

[Tyler Mode]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

For the Willamette Valley, October will end up just slightly above average temperature wise. Not bad considering how badly we torched early in the month. 

Exactly, I'm almost exactly to the tenth of a degree on the high and the low both.  Really shows how things can average out and looking back, October will just like normal.

[SouthHillFrosty]

All this cold talk makes the September fires/smoke seem so distant. I hope they get put out quickly in Cali

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Was looking at a top-5 warmest October ever down here and now down to just +1.7F.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Operational and control are both cold outliers on the ensembles as expected. But they aren't all alone anymore and some go colder.