Not so sure about that. That time frame for 2024 somewhat reflects the lingering winter pattern.
The past month hasn't been as warm. Certainly not as warm as April 2010 was. You'd think if the anomaly pattern represented the "summer pattern establishing" it would be growing stronger as we get closer to summer, not weaker.
Yeah, I don't think 2012 is a good analog, was just looking at semi-recent years with hot summers in the middle of the continent. Seeing if there was any indication the summer pattern would be getting established by now.