October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Front Ranger]

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

Is it? I’m just under 40N.

Peak is usually around Halloween, but the greens usually start to fade right about now.

Yeah, guess I was thinking more peak.

[Phil]

Latest CFSv2 ensemble wants to take this Niña to -2.3C in terms of ONI. I have a hard time believing that, but this year has defied conventional wisdom every chance it gets, so who knows?

[Blizzard777]

7 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

I do have to wonder if people over there use heat and AC in the same day.

Just combed through NWS Medford data and it looks like Alturas had a 61 degree diurnal on 10/1. 91/30 spread. No airmass replacement, just pure radiational cooling.

I was once stranded in Alturas!  It was only a day and a half but seemed like and eternity!  Not a very entertaining town 

 

60/55 with .04 precipitation 

 

[Jesse]

67/56 here today. Morning clouds burned off around 1-2pm and it turned into a pretty nice afternoon. Probably the cleanest looking air in the last 3-4 days.

[Jesse]

1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

18z GFS is better than 12z GFS but still builds a ridge and forces the jet back into BC at about day 8-9. Doesn't completely screw CA and southern OR this time.

Another 590dm ridge in the mid to long range. Sure getting sick of those.

[Meatyorologist]

GEFS suite mean is much more troughy in the long run than the GFS main.

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

GEFS suite mean is much more troughy in the long run than the GFS main.

Not that it means anything, really. It is 384 hours out.

 

I expect a #ban from Fred soon...

[Deweydog]

So what’s everybody’s winter forecasts?

If Matt Zaffino can toss one out by now, we all certainly can too!

 

Dec: warmish/slightly wet

Jan: average/average

Feb: slightly cool/wet

3.2 inches of SNOW at PDX with a couple below freezing days.

 

 

[Blizzard777]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Not that it means anything, really. It is 384 hours out.

 

I expect a #ban from Fred soon...

Monday October 19th is also 384 hours out .....that’s the one thing that will happen on that map! 
Possible road trip next week pending how this works out.  My buddy doesn’t like playing in the rain even though part of the trip would be caving.  

[TacomaWaWx]

59/55 spread today. Ended up with 0.08” this morning to go to 0.12” on the month. 

[El_Nina]

Got some decent mist last night along with dense fog. Just enough to make objects damp. Still 0.00." 

[The Swamp]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

So what’s everybody’s winter forecasts?

If Matt Zaffino can toss one out by now, we all certainly can too!

 

Dec: warmish/slightly wet

Jan: average/average

Feb: slightly cool/wet

3.2 inches of SNOW at PDX with a couple below freezing days.

 

 

October - Very cold to end the month

November - Rain, lots of it.  Normal temps

December - Cold, Foggy, Drier than Normal

January - Cold, Foggy, Drier than Normal

February - Cold, Foggy, Drier than Normal

10" of snow in the swamp.  A few sunny days.

[MossMan]

The boat is now ready for 5 feet of snow and temps in the single digits...Let’s do this!! 
The kids had fun helping! Luckily it stayed dry here this afternoon. 

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, Jesse said:

Another 590dm ridge in the mid to long range. Sure getting sick of those.

EPS isn't seeing it so who knows.  At any rate there's a lot of action on the GFS too.

[snow drift]

2 hours ago, Jesse said:

Another 590dm ridge in the mid to long range. Sure getting sick of those.

You would've hated 1988. This year is similar. That winter turned out pretty well. We'll see a pattern change eventually.

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

Latest CFSv2 ensemble wants to take this Niña to -2.3C in terms of ONI. I have a hard time believing that, but this year has defied conventional wisdom every chance it gets, so who knows?

That would be something to write home about.  I really like the history of strong first year Ninas for delivering hard core Arctic blasts.  Not saying it will happen, but just stating what happens historically speaking.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Snowdrift said:

You would've hated 1988. This year is similar. That winter turned out pretty well. We'll see a pattern change eventually.

It sure did.  A very slow starter, but one of my favorite winters to date.  I believe Dewey has some fond recollections from that one.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

It sure did.  A very slow starter, but one of my favorite winters to date.  I believe Dewey has some fond recollections from that one.

Backloaded with a big cold snap in early February, IIRC.

[snow drift]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It sure did.  A very slow starter, but one of my favorite winters to date.  I believe Dewey has some fond recollections from that one.

November was stormy. December was normal. January was splitty. February through March was epic. I just want another cold wave like early February 1989.

[Blizzard777]

21 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

You would've hated 1988. This year is similar. That winter turned out pretty well. We'll see a pattern change eventually.

I was in Lake Oswego that year! Powerful arctic front and cold spell. Enough to freeze the lake over

I’ll take that event again 

[snow drift]

14 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

I was in Lake Oswego that year! Powerful arctic front and cold spell. Enough to freeze the lake over

I’ll take that event again 

I've felt colder air temperatures, but that was likely the coldest wind chill that I've ever experienced. 

[ShawniganLake]

44 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Backloaded with a big cold snap in early February, IIRC.

Not sure what it was like there but it was cold and snowy here on Christmas Eve in 1988.  I remember coming up the driveway with my dad that day and there was a heavy snow falling. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Not sure what it was like there but it was cold and snowy here on Christmas Eve in 1988.  I remember coming up the driveway with my dad that day and there was a heavy snow falling. 

I was living in eastern Washington (lower Yakima Valley) at the time. I don’t remember much other than the February cold snap. Went from record warmth to record cold in a few days. Froze the Yakima River from bank to bank in a week.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Never experienced an Arctic Front (I doubt I will ever get to as we are just too far south). I have no clue what they are even like. I guess it's like a solar eclipse, unexplainable, just have to feel it for ones-self.

Oh well...

[El_Nina]

Starting out with the moon before fog develops again later. Almost hard to look at directly. 

[BLI snowman]

57 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Not sure what it was like there but it was cold and snowy here on Christmas Eve in 1988.  I remember coming up the driveway with my dad that day and there was a heavy snow falling. 

That Christmas 1988 trough was very splitty. Most of the energy went down into CA/NV and delivered some extremely low elevation snow to the Bay Area and a major snowfall to the northern Sacramento Valley. Just produced some pretty generic high 30s stuff west of the Cascades.

[MossMan]

22 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Never experienced an Arctic Front (I doubt I will ever get to as we are just too far south). I have no clue what they are even like. I guess it's like a solar eclipse, unexplainable, just have to feel it for ones-self.

Oh well...

They are magical! I don’t know how much you travel due to your condition, but if you are able to you should come up to this area if one is forecasted! 

[Jesse]

28 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Never experienced an Arctic Front (I doubt I will ever get to as we are just too far south). I have no clue what they are even like. I guess it's like a solar eclipse, unexplainable, just have to feel it for ones-self.

Oh well...

There is a wind shift and the temperature/DP drops and it maybe snows. I feel like Eugene has had events like that in the time you’ve lived there.

[El_Nina]

11 minutes ago, Jesse said:

There is a wind shift and the temperature/DP drops and it maybe snows. I feel like Eugene has had events like that in the time you’ve lived there.

I don't feel like there's much disparity up or down the valley when it comes to decent snow events. It's just the gorge flow is much stronger right in the Portland area. 

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, Jesse said:

There is a wind shift and the temperature/DP drops and it maybe snows. I feel like Eugene has had events like that in the time you’ve lived there.

TBF the only really impressive arctic front this century has been 11/22/2010 and that one ran out of steam south of Salem.

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

TBF the only really impressive arctic front this century has been 11/22/2010 and that one ran out of steam south of Salem.

After a 1990’s that was chock full of them...

[BLI snowman]

10 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

After a 1990’s that was chock full of them...

Yeah, even December 1998 was a bleed-in type of event. February 1995 had the big storm here locally and November 1993 was actually kind of impressive from Tacoma-north but otherwise it was very sparse after the 1990 twins.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

31 minutes ago, Jesse said:

There is a wind shift and the temperature/DP drops and it maybe snows. I feel like Eugene has had events like that in the time you’ve lived there.

None that I can recall. The 2013 instance was when I was in Texas so I wasn't here for it. Can't think of any other times it would have ever happened down this way.

38 minutes ago, MossMan said:

They are magical! I don’t know how much you travel due to your condition, but if you are able to you should come up to this area if one is forecasted! 

I wish I was able to drive but I just don't have the means to get up north, especially on short notice.

[Deweydog]

7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, even December 1998 was a bleed-in type of event. February 1995 had the big storm here locally and November 1993 was actually kind of impressive from Tacoma-north but otherwise it was very sparse after the 1990 twins.

Ironically, December 2013 down the valley was by far the most impressive frontogenic Arctic shortwave we’ve seen anywhere south of Olympia this century.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Ironically, December 2013 down the valley was by far the most impressive frontogenic Arctic shortwave we’ve seen anywhere south of Olympia this century.

Of course it was, since I wasn't here...

But we got 2-25-19 which was awesome.

[ShawniganLake]

GEFS turns decently chilly after the 10th

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

GEFS turns decently chilly after the 10th

Of what month?

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Never experienced an Arctic Front (I doubt I will ever get to as we are just too far south). I have no clue what they are even like. I guess it's like a solar eclipse, unexplainable, just have to feel it for ones-self.

Oh well...

What about Feb 2014 or Dec 2013?

[Deweydog]

10 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Of course it was, since I wasn't here...

But we got 2-25-19 which was awesome.

Should have shot an email to mom a few days in advance.  She would have gladly postponed or relocated it.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty nice GFS run tonight.   A number of cold troughs with some transitory ridges in between which should set the table for our first chilly nights of the season.