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October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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Here's the snow thus far

By far the most impressive October storm I've witnessed here since 2012 when I bought property. Ended up with 9 inches of powder and is currently 22 degrees down from 24 at 9am. 

Just catching up to everything this morning. I think given that the user base of the forum has been somewhat of a close knit community for 15+ years, there is a bit of leeway given when it comes to be

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06z GFS looked a little more reasonable.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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8 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

This is a really impressive cold outbreak for this early.  Not even midnight and Lynden is at 35 with NE winds gusting to 37, and at the same time Spokane is at 19 with gusty winds.  It appears the 850s have bottomed out at -5.5 over SEA (or will shortly).  To the best of my knowledge that would make this the coldest continental air mass to strike this early in many decades.

Just recorded my first freeze of the season and it never calmed down and decoupled here! I did not expect that to happen. Indeed, an impressively cold outflow event for October.

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  • Snow 1
It's called clown range for a reason.

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NWS is forecasting a low of 22 at EUG tomorrow morning. Not only would that be their coldest October low since 2006, it would be a record for the date. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Good morning.  35 here currently and no frost.  I expected a few degrees cooler but that's okay.  Looks like a nice day ahead for getting some yard work taken care of.

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35 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

NWS is forecasting a low of 22 at EUG tomorrow morning. Not only would that be their coldest October low since 2006, it would be a record for the date. 

And it would be surreal given how torchy they have been this month.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

And it would be surreal given how torchy they have been this month.

Will be interesting. Eugene has been known to overachieve in low dewpoint situations if gradients relax sufficiently. SLE really overachieved last October. I think their record low of 26 is definitely one to keep an eye on. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Wow, Missoula cleared out last night and dropped to -7F this morning! Coldest October reading on record and earliest sub-zero temperature on record. 

@BLI snowman Who says we're not capable of historic air-masses anymore??

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  • Snow 1

Cold Season 2020/21:

Total snowfall: 22.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 12.0"

Highest snow depth: 14.0"

Coldest high: 9.0º

Coldest low: -5.1º

Number of subzero days: 2

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Just now, Kayla said:

Wow, Missoula cleared out last night and dropped to -7F this morning! Coldest October reading on record and earliest sub-zero temperature on record. 

@BLI snowman Who says we're not capable of historic air-masses anymore??

That is incredible. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Looks like SLE managed to hit 32 on one

of the 5 min readings. Eugene has bottomed out at 30 this morning. Madras in Central Oregon down to 12.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Will be interesting. Eugene has been known to overachieve in low dewpoint situations if gradients relax sufficiently. SLE really overachieved last October. I think their record low of 26 is definitely one to keep an eye on. 

I agree that it is definitely achievable. Eugene can get impressively cold if the right sort of airmass makes it that far south in the valley. They have recorded lows in the teens in October.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I agree that it is definitely achievable. Eugene can get impressively cold if the right sort of airmass makes it that far south in the valley. They have recorded lows in the teens in October.

Yes, they recorded lows in the teens in October 2002 and 2006. I believe the low in 2002 tied their all time record for the month and 2006 broke it. 
 

The record for tomorrow morning is from 1954 which is intriguing as that is one of the years I have been looking at as a possible analog. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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BCBAC0F1-858A-43B7-92F4-8D23DF49CC8E.jpeg

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Wind never died down here last night still managed to hit 39 degrees this morning. Yesterday ended up a 48/42 spread. 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-42

Freezes-1

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-10.14”

Snowfall-0.0”

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Currently 40 with a DP of 21. Have had a constant NE breeze here since Friday night...has been gusty at times. Wind should die down and we should finally get our first freeze of the season. 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-42

Freezes-1

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-10.14”

Snowfall-0.0”

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12z GFS already looks way different.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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00Z EPS... 5-10 day and 10-15 day mean.    Looks like its going to really warm up in the Midwest.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_5day-4448000.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_5day-4880000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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For those who were freaking out about the models yesterday (no reason to at this point) the 12z GFS looks much more interesting.

For those keeping score SEA bottomed out at -6 on the 850s last night.  Exceptional for this early in the season.  At any rate that is about 1.5C colder than the model runs leading up to the cold snap.  This continues the trend noted the past couple of winters where cold troughs verify a bit colder than the models (particularly the GFS) show at one to two days out with these things.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 10

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

VanBC made it to -4.3˚C (24.3˚F) this morning. Definitely think mid-20's F are achievable for me tonight if it stays clear and decouples.

That is really impressive considering the pressure gradients hadn't relaxed yet.  Many places will be a lot colder tonight than last night.  Decoupling will not be an issue tonight.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 10

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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As I mentioned yesterday this is the second round of historic cold to hit the west this season.  The first shot in September mainly effected areas further inland.  This one effected areas further west, but was still just a tad too far east.  You have to like the trend toward shifting things west.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 10

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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The GFS ensemble is way colder with the Halloween (give or take a day trough).  I would be happy with either that type of scenario or bone dry for a while.  I want to stay away from the warm drizzle patterns if at all possible.  That is just for my own preference and has nothing to do with what may happen going forward.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 10

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Acer said:

32 after a low of 27.  Very nice cold snap with the possibility of getting a bit colder tonight.  A beautiful day ahead.

I seriously think many of us could see freezing temps by about 8pm tonight.  Could be a hard freeze for some.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 10

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2008/12/what-winter.html?m=1

Cliff was getting very nervous about mountain snowpack at this point while we were beginning to go full weenie mode with the models showing potential. 
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2008/12/weekend-weather.html?m=1

And then Cliff’s first mention of the possible major changes. We were all in massive weenie mode by this time on the forum! 
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2008/12/major-changes-next-friday.html?m=1

 

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2 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

And it would be surreal given how torchy they have been this month.

BLI has a +2.3 departure month to date, EUG has a +3.6. You guys have been almost just as torchy.

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Crisp, clear and breezy out this morning. Still just 39 degrees after a low of 35, which is impressive considering the wind blew all night.

DP is down into the mid-teens. Should be interesting to see how cold everywhere gets tonight considering the wind is likely to die off.

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The north wind in the swamp is impressive.  Feels like we should have had 3" of snow a few days ago.

Only got down to 38 here in them swamp but my drive out to the Orting Valley this morning revealed a solid freeze with a nice coating of ice everywhere.  31 is what the truck thermometer read.

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12z GFS would be much better than dry all the way through. We're entering inversion season now, and the model runs that are entirely dry show some serious air stagnation in western OR.

And it still shows clear skies on Halloween night, so the full moon will be visible if the 12z verifies.

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I think Jim is going to be really happy with the low temps tonight.

If things calm down just a bit the swamp should easily reach the upper 20's.

This could be the winter that a lot of you have been waiting for.  Ridge placement is key.  It may not be what I want but I have a feeling after a warm and wet November the ridging will build into SE Alaska opening up our region to goodies dropping out of the north.  Too close to the coast and Kayla gets all the goodies though.

I really think this winter is going to deliver some exciting model rides.

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