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October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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8 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

12z GFS would be much better than dry all the way through. We're entering inversion season now, and the model runs that are entirely dry show some serious air stagnation in western OR.

And it still shows clear skies on Halloween night, so the full moon will be visible if the 12z verifies.

Hope you are enjoying the current cold spell. HIO could get into the low to mid 20s tonight.

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Here's the snow thus far

By far the most impressive October storm I've witnessed here since 2012 when I bought property. Ended up with 9 inches of powder and is currently 22 degrees down from 24 at 9am. 

Just catching up to everything this morning. I think given that the user base of the forum has been somewhat of a close knit community for 15+ years, there is a bit of leeway given when it comes to be

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44 with a DP of 20 currently. Interested to see how cold we can get tonight...we got down to 30 degrees on 10/30 last year we will see how this cold snap compares. 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-42

Freezes-1

Monthly rainfall-6.63”

Cold season rainfall-9.80”

Snowfall-0.0”

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1 hour ago, Acer said:

32 after a low of 27.  Very nice cold snap with the possibility of getting a bit colder tonight.  A beautiful day ahead.

I will be mowing for most likely the last time today, perhaps I will also see our resident bobcat! 

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12Z ECMWF back to mostly washing out the late week trough.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Halloween afternoon... no rain and just a band of high clouds which is usually overestimated by the ECMWF.     Almost no mid or low clouds.   

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-clouds_fourpanel-4188800.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_6hr_inch-4188800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The ECMWF shows everything is a go for tonight.  A few patches of high clouds float through at times, but it shows clear or nearly clear much of the time with no wind pretty much anywhere.  SEA could easily be on course for their earliest freeze in forever.  

I'm very pleased with my 34 this morning in spite of a breeze for most of the night.  Currently a very crisp 44.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, El_Nina said:

Seattle averages 37" rain per year; Eugene averages 47". So far this year, Seattle is at 28.34" and Eugene is at 20.68". 

I’m at 48.26” so far on the year. 

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54 minutes ago, puyallupjon said:

I think Jim is going to be really happy with the low temps tonight.

If things calm down just a bit the swamp should easily reach the upper 20's.

This could be the winter that a lot of you have been waiting for.  Ridge placement is key.  It may not be what I want but I have a feeling after a warm and wet November the ridging will build into SE Alaska opening up our region to goodies dropping out of the north.  Too close to the coast and Kayla gets all the goodies though.

I really think this winter is going to deliver some exciting model rides.

You seem different this year.  I think some of the strangeness this year has changed many of us in at least subtle ways.  I think for the good in a lot of ways.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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53 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

12z GFS would be much better than dry all the way through. We're entering inversion season now, and the model runs that are entirely dry show some serious air stagnation in western OR.

And it still shows clear skies on Halloween night, so the full moon will be visible if the 12z verifies.

Dang, Saturday, Full moon, Halloween and covid to ruin the party 🎃

Sadly I won’t be setting up my display this year but if kids come I will leave candies out in a bowl. 
 

45* and continued breezy wind

DP 14*

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1 minute ago, Jginmartini said:

Dang, Saturday, Full moon, Halloween and covid to ruin the party 🎃

Sadly I won’t be setting up my display this year but if kids come I will leave candies out in a bowl. 
 

45* and continued breezy wind

DP 14*

That's a great idea.  Just leave the candy bowl out for them to help themselves.  We obviously have to think outside the box this year.  I put up a few decorations for some feeling of normalcy.  

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

43 degrees and a dp of 13 at PDX right now. 

Good stuff. 

Now that is impressive.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Still in the 30’s and it’s afternoon...Impressive! 

45 here.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I also like how the cold snap has been extended through Tuesday now.  Early on the models had indicated a fast warmup starting Monday night, but now Monday night and Tuesday look solidly below normal.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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I don’t think PDX will hit 50 today. DP down to 13 at SLE, this is very impressive.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Probably one of the biggest jaw dropping stats so far is the fact that SEA was colder than McChord, OLM, and Shelton last night.  That is like alternate universe type stuff.  They will probably beat SEA's morning low this evening though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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26 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

You're looking at total precip. 

 

Yeah... that was a really strange way to look at the weather for a particular day.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don’t think PDX will hit 50 today. DP down to 13 at SLE, this is very impressive.

Yeah....they may not even hit 45.  It took a little longer for the chill to get there, but it really has now.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah....they may not even hit 45.  It took a little longer for the chill to get there, but it really has now.

I know HIO isn't PDX... but bad news regarding HIO.

Anyway, I think I'm going to go on a walk in a bit.

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Hoping Halloween is dry...I’m going up to orcas island for a few days on Friday hoping for dry clear conditions for photos. I went up to orcas last Halloween and captured some of the best photos I’ve ever gotten. 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-42

Freezes-1

Monthly rainfall-6.63”

Cold season rainfall-9.80”

Snowfall-0.0”

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13 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Still in the 30’s and it’s afternoon...Impressive! 

That’s significant cold for October. 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-42

Freezes-1

Monthly rainfall-6.63”

Cold season rainfall-9.80”

Snowfall-0.0”

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5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Hoping Halloween is dry...I’m going up to orcas island for a few days on Friday hoping for dry clear conditions for photos. I went up to orcas last Halloween and captured some of the best photos I’ve ever gotten. 

Will be a full moon on Halloween. This happens once every 19 years.

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12Z EPS 15-day precipitation anomaly... starting to think Oregon is just cursed.    The place that really needs rain is the most anomalously dry place in all of North America.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-qpf_anom_15day-4923200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It's 6 degrees here...at 2pm, on October 25th...😲 This airmass is incredible.

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Cold Season 2020/21:

Total snowfall: 22.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 12.0"

Highest snow depth: 14.0"

Coldest high: 9.0º

Coldest low: -5.1º

Number of subzero days: 2

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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57 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That's a great idea.  Just leave the candy bowl out for them to help themselves.  We obviously have to think outside the box this year.  I put up a few decorations for some feeling of normalcy.  

I have a lot of Chevy Chase in me so at the last minute I may go all out!   Two years ago on Halloween I stepped on a nail and it went quite a ways in! Still got the show up and running and have my daughter to thank for that.  Doctor was upset at me for not going to emergency that day when it happened.   The sickness of Holiday fun is real!   
 

47*

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Almost all of the obs in Puget Sound region show dew points in the upper teens to mid 20s right now.  Hard to figure why the NWS doesn't have colder low temps forecast for tonight.  I'm betting most places will achieve the forecasted lows by midnight.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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12 minutes ago, Kayla said:

It's 6 degrees here...at 2pm, on October 25th...😲 This airmass is incredible.

If this is any indication of what will happen this winter....OH BOY!  I think the most likely window for this winter will be late Dec to early Feb.  Right in the sweet spot of the winter.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

I have a lot of Chevy Chase in me so at the last minute I may go all out!   Two years ago on Halloween I stepped on a nail and it went quite a ways in! Still got the show up and running and have my daughter to thank for that.  Doctor was upset at me for not going to emergency that day when it happened.   The sickness of Holiday fun is real!   
 

47*

I had a knack for stepping on nails when I was a kid.  My mom always cleaned it up and took me to get a tetanus shot the next day.  Usually no need for an immediate ER visit.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Canadian guy said:

Only 41 degrees with gusty north east winds in Victoria at 1pm. Impressive.

I'm glad people are really seeing the light on this cold snap now.  If things had set up just a few degrees further west it would have been beyond historic for us.  Probably an early version of October 1935.  As it is...no complaints from me.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, MossMan said:

Scud clouds up here currently. 
43. 

The ECMWF cloud cover forecast showed some clouds today, but very few tonight save a few brief bouts with high clouds.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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This Niña is literally going off the charts. 
 

About half the CFS ensembles today have it peaking around New Years BELOW -3.0C in the 3.4 region.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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An amazing crisp Winter day in Fall with bright blue skies and a really cold, gusty east wind. Temp is 46.3, dewpoint 17. Low temp 36.3. It is looking real dry the next 7-10 days. This is a good time to get any remaining outdoor projects done, raking leaves, mowing the lawn, etc. Nothing else to report at this time.

00z GFS in 6 hours 50 minutes

00z GEM in 7 hours 22 minutes

00z ECMWF in 9 hours 7 minutes

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Mostly sunny and basically calm here... with a few high clouds.

20201025_133747.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I'm really impressed how the temperature just stopped rising here a couple of hours ago.  Stuck in the mid 40s since then.  The sun still has a little bit of power this time of year so that's pretty impressive for mid day.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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