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October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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Just now, Deweydog said:

It is quite strange to be sitting in the mid 40’s while half the leaves on our maples are still green.

This could result in some pretty amazing color coming on over the next week if tonight doesn't turn the leaves black.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Here's the snow thus far

By far the most impressive October storm I've witnessed here since 2012 when I bought property. Ended up with 9 inches of powder and is currently 22 degrees down from 24 at 9am. 

Just catching up to everything this morning. I think given that the user base of the forum has been somewhat of a close knit community for 15+ years, there is a bit of leeway given when it comes to be

Posted Images

9 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

An amazing crisp Winter day in Fall with bright blue skies and a really cold, gusty east wind. Temp is 46.3, dewpoint 17. Low temp 36.3. It is looking real dry the next 7-10 days. This is a good time to get any remaining outdoor projects done, raking leaves, mowing the lawn, etc. Nothing else to report at this time.

00z GFS in 6 hours 50 minutes

00z GEM in 7 hours 22 minutes

00z ECMWF in 9 hours 7 minutes

I did some mowing earlier today.  No doubt the lawn will not be growing anymore this season after tonight.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I did some mowing earlier today.  No doubt the lawn will not be growing anymore this season after tonight.

That is not true.   Our lawn will stop growing and then start again if we have a warmer period with SW flow and rain.    The pattern looks pretty mild coming up.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This could result in some pretty amazing color coming on over the next week if tonight doesn't turn the leaves black.

Black leaves matter!!!

Joe DID say we were heading into a dark winter...

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Black leaves matter!!!

Joe DID say we were heading into a dark winter...

Been a dark weekend for Joe and Hunter. 😱 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 hours ago, MossMan said:

I will be mowing for most likely the last time today, perhaps I will also see our resident bobcat! 

This is definitely my last mowing.  I’ve only seen a bobcat three times in the 38 years I’ve lived here.  Quite a rare treat.

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32 minutes ago, puyallupjon said:

It's going to be insanely cold tonight for this time of year.

I'm curious to see how far the swamp dips tonight.

Hot tubs will be steaming away tonight! 
Still quite breezy here and according to the HRRR it will continue until around 3 am and begin to lighten up.  Still expecting the temperature to be between 29-32 by the time I awake.   

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF cloud cover forecast showed some clouds today, but very few tonight save a few brief bouts with high clouds.

Current satellite view shows a lot of clouds moving down from the north.  Hopefully the forecast is right.  44 here and so far the high for the day with mostly cloudy skies.

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45 and mostly sunny here at 3pm. Breeze is still going but it’s much lighter than it was yesterday. Could end up with a pretty chilly max high temp today. We had high temps of 45 and 46 back in October 2006...and a 46 degree day in 2019 so it won’t be record breaking but still cold for this time of year. 

  • Sun 1

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-42

Freezes-1

Monthly rainfall-6.63”

Cold season rainfall-9.80”

Snowfall-0.0”

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4 minutes ago, Acer said:

Current satellite view shows a lot of clouds moving down from the north.  Hopefully the forecast is right.  44 here and so far the high for the day with mostly cloudy skies.

Its moving south and then falls apart.    Models show it should be pretty clear tonight with thin high clouds.   Then low clouds move in during the day tomorrow and stick around though Wednesday... particularly from Seattle northward.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Main thing I’m watching for is a record cold low temp for the month of October. We set a new record last year with a low of 30 on 10/30...hoping to set a new record and dip into the 20s tonight that would really be something! 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-42

Freezes-1

Monthly rainfall-6.63”

Cold season rainfall-9.80”

Snowfall-0.0”

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Impressively chilly afternoon. High of just 45 so far with gusty east winds. Down to 44 now so that might have been it for the day. DP in the low to mid teens.

The wind has been just about perfect. Strong enough to hold temps down make it feel chilly, but not so strong it’s ripping all the remaining leaves off the trees. Could mean we finally get some good color later this week.

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41 minutes ago, Acer said:

Current satellite view shows a lot of clouds moving down from the north.  Hopefully the forecast is right.  44 here and so far the high for the day with mostly cloudy skies.

Here is a live cam from downtown Vancouver BC looking to the northwest... the clouds are very thin.

 

katkam.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, puyallupjon said:

It's going to be insanely cold tonight for this time of year.

I'm curious to see how far the swamp dips tonight.

I'm puzzled why the NWS is being so conservative on their forecast for tonight.  As I said earlier I expect the forecasted lows to be reached by midnight in a lot of places.  Just nothing to keep it from tanking tonight.  I'm thinking 25 IMBY which is basically is as cold as it ever gets before Oct 28th or so.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Here is a live cam from downtown Vancouver BC looking to the northwest... the clouds are very thin.

 

katkam.png

For sure.  I mentioned earlier the ECMWF cloud forecast feature shows a lot of the night being mostly clear.  For whatever reason I've seen high clouds basically vanish just after sunset in cases like this.   Not sure if it's just been coincidence or whether there is a reason for that.

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  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Looks like 48 will be it for my high today.  Three consecutive max temps below 50 is probably a new benchmark for my personal records this early in the season.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Just NO WAY we don’t get much colder than forecast tonight. Literally NOTHING could go wrong.

I suppose something could spoil it, but I don't see what.  I consider forecasting low temps in these situations to be one of my specialties.  

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Wow. Spokane had 6+ inches of snow (spots up to 8") on Friday and a little bit yesterday too. If this was mentioned already, I just hopped on the forums after days of not posting.

This is so early for that much snow for them that the daily records were 0.2" 10/23 and a TRACE 10/24 in the 1950's. They also broke a monthly snowfall record 6.1" in 1957 with 7.5" at KOTX in 2020. 

Haven't seen my first snow yet but I am very cold today. This is two back to back years where snow/cold came early in the PNW. Montana is at it again with temperatures into the -20 to -30 range. I think Fall is getting colder.

Was 39 at 1pm. 43 now. This might have been the first time I've seen an afternoon temperature reading 30's before Halloween since I came here. Did a few errands and went shopping today, felt like January. If you're not wearing a coat you're on something I'd like to try. ;)

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
 
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
Nov '18 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '18 - 05.80" (58%)
Jan '19 - 09.50(80%)
Feb '19 - 27.50" (306%)
Mar '19 - 09.00" (360%)
Apr '19 - 0.30" (30%)
 
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
Nov '19 - 06.50" (163%)
Dec '19 - 06.75" (67%)
Jan '20 - 18.75" (156%)
Feb '20 - 00.00" (0%)
Mar '20 - 04.75" (190%)
Apr '20 - 00.25"
 
2019 Thunderstorms: 14
04/02, 04/19, 05/28, 05/31, 06/01
06/12, 06/28, 07/14, 08/09, 08/10
08/28, 09/05, 09/15, 09/16
Hailstorms: 05/28 (1/4")
Max Gust: 53mph (08/10)
 
2020 Thunderstorms: 10
03/17, 05/18, 06/10, 06/12, 07/22
07/27, 08/05, 08/15, 08/16, 08/25
 
Hailstorms: 07/22 (1/3"), 08/05 (3/4")
Max Gust: ~55+ (09/07), 60 (11/17)
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) / 1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like 48 will be it for my high today.  Three consecutive max temps below 50 is probably a new benchmark for my personal records this early in the season.

How many did you have last year? I had 4 consecutive sub 50 highs last October and 5 total for the month. 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-42

Freezes-1

Monthly rainfall-6.63”

Cold season rainfall-9.80”

Snowfall-0.0”

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I suppose something could spoil it, but I don't see what.  I consider forecasting low temps in these situations to be one of my specialties.  

I know. I agree it’s a good setup, but it seems like such certainly before the actual event is almost begging for a jinx. Or worse yet for you to be really let down tomorrow if it doesn’t work out.

Sometimes it’s more fun just to let it ride a little.

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

18z= Likable

Agreed. I decided to stay quiet since I mentioned the 12z was decent and someone decided to clown on me over it with their first post in months. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Agreed. I decided to stay quiet since I mentioned the 12z was decent and someone decided to clown on me over it with their first post in months. 

It looks like the GFS finally saw those CFS 3.4 forecasts!

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4 minutes ago, El_Nina said:

It's been windy all day but was certainly stronger in the morning, enough to rattle the walls. Made it up to 47.

 

Yeah early morning and last night had some 30-35 here, has hung around 20 ish most of the day.

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
 
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
Nov '18 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '18 - 05.80" (58%)
Jan '19 - 09.50(80%)
Feb '19 - 27.50" (306%)
Mar '19 - 09.00" (360%)
Apr '19 - 0.30" (30%)
 
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
Nov '19 - 06.50" (163%)
Dec '19 - 06.75" (67%)
Jan '20 - 18.75" (156%)
Feb '20 - 00.00" (0%)
Mar '20 - 04.75" (190%)
Apr '20 - 00.25"
 
2019 Thunderstorms: 14
04/02, 04/19, 05/28, 05/31, 06/01
06/12, 06/28, 07/14, 08/09, 08/10
08/28, 09/05, 09/15, 09/16
Hailstorms: 05/28 (1/4")
Max Gust: 53mph (08/10)
 
2020 Thunderstorms: 10
03/17, 05/18, 06/10, 06/12, 07/22
07/27, 08/05, 08/15, 08/16, 08/25
 
Hailstorms: 07/22 (1/3"), 08/05 (3/4")
Max Gust: ~55+ (09/07), 60 (11/17)
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) / 1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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26 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Yeah early morning and last night had some 30-35 here, has hung around 20 ish most of the day.

That's pretty impressive, my anemometer is broken that wasn't my peak wind gust. It's the high temperature. 

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Looks like it was the coldest 10/25 in 50 years at the PDX.  IKEA wasn't even a gleam in John IKEA’s eye at that point.

1970? Another one of my analogs. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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30 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Looks like it was the coldest 10/25 in 50 years at the PDX.  IKEA wasn't even a gleam in John IKEA’s eye at that point.

Also the earliest <50 high at PDX since 1970. And looks like it was probably the earliest with full sunshine on record there.

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2 hours ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Wow. Spokane had 6+ inches of snow (spots up to 8") on Friday and a little bit yesterday too. If this was mentioned already, I just hopped on the forums after days of not posting.

This is so early for that much snow for them that the daily records were 0.2" 10/23 and a TRACE 10/24 in the 1950's. They also broke a monthly snowfall record 6.1" in 1957 with 7.5" at KOTX in 2020. 

Haven't seen my first snow yet but I am very cold today. This is two back to back years where snow/cold came early in the PNW. Montana is at it again with temperatures into the -20 to -30 range. I think Fall is getting colder.

Was 39 at 1pm. 43 now. This might have been the first time I've seen an afternoon temperature reading 30's before Halloween since I came here. Did a few errands and went shopping today, felt like January. If you're not wearing a coat you're on something I'd like to try. ;)

The big difference is last year was a Nino and this is a Nina.  I always like seeing cold in Nina Octobers.  Major cold in Nino Octobers is often a bad sign.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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10 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Also the earliest <50 high at PDX since 1970. And looks like it was probably the earliest with full sunshine on record there.

Pretty impressive.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

18z GFS Ensembles

Nice improvements to a pattern change to cooler and wetter.

Portland

ens_image.php?geoid=135728&var=201&run=1

Seattle

ens_image.php?geoid=136221&var=201&run=1

Wowzers!  -7 850s progged for SEA on that op run.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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11 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Also the earliest <50 high at PDX since 1970. And looks like it was probably the earliest with full sunshine on record there.

Those are great stats.  Imagine if some of the earlier colder runs had verified.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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45 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

1970? Another one of my analogs. 

Something like a 1970 / 1988 hybrid would be something to write home about me thinks!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Somebody made a comment earlier about fall actually getting colder in recent times and to some extent that is true.  Really weird when you consider how hot the summers have been almost without fail as of late.  No doubt the summer to fall contrast has gotten petty crazy.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Looks like decoupling has been achieved here.  Already down to 44 after my high of 48, and the wind has completely died.  This is going to a be good one tonight!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Didn't see it mentioned here either but Spokane had their earliest subfreezing high on record yesterday with 32. Did even better today with 31. This is back to 1881.

D**n!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Somebody made a comment earlier about fall actually getting colder in recent times and to some extent that is true.  Really weird when you consider how hot the summers have been almost without fail as of late.  No doubt the summer to fall contrast has gotten petty crazy.

Two months have actually cooled from 1981-10 to 1991-20 averages.

They are February and March. AFAIK, fall isn't cooling.

 

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