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October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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Analogs gone wild!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Here's the snow thus far

By far the most impressive October storm I've witnessed here since 2012 when I bought property. Ended up with 9 inches of powder and is currently 22 degrees down from 24 at 9am. 

Sorry guys I ended up getting chased around the outside of the building at work by a whacked out homeless guy on drugs...That was a first! I was mostly worried about the snot coming out of his nose as

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Analogs gone wild!

 

tenor.gif

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 18.50" (52%)
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.10" (78%)
Mar '21 - 03.30" (132%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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5 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Billings, MT has seen 11 straight days with at least an inch of snow on the ground. This is a new record for October. Previous record was 9 days in 1949. There it is again! 😉

Pretty incredible pattern. Oklahoma City is currently experiencing a pretty crippling ice storm. No October precedent for a significant winter storm there.

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11 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

OLM has hit 26 the last two mornings. No records, but close.

My real concern is that there is now a Costco and a Home Depot about 3/4 of a mile away.

Has encroaching UHI dissolved one of the last bastions of climate greatness in the state? Tune in tonight for more details.

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Euro doesn't get there by day 10. Blocking theme is there though. Starting to wonder if we'll see any zonal flow this Fall.

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Cold Season 2020/21:

Total snowfall: 86.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 12.0"

Highest snow depth: 18.0"

Coldest high: -7.0º

Coldest low: -17.1º

Number of subzero days: 7

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

My real concern is that there is now a Costco and a Home Depot about 3/4 of a mile away.

Has encroaching UHI dissolved one of the last bastions of climate greatness in the state? Tune in tonight for more details.

Both of those opened in the 1990’s.  Stop spreading panic seeds.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

And people say big cold is a thing of the past..this is insane.

image.thumb.jpeg.fc1d02295a0f8228b853ad1b7104eb6e.jpeg

 

 

No doubt... I imagine us reading about something like this in the distant past and thinking it can never happen again.   Well it just happened in real time.   We don't have to imagine what it was like.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Interesting flip to Alaska ridging/-EPO across guidance today. GEFS in particular moved significantly.

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

 

No doubt... I imagine us reading about something like this in the distant past and thinking it can never happen again.   Well it just happened in real time.   We don't have to imagine what it was like.  

Yeah kind of how I felt after February 2019. Wasn’t sure if I’d ever live to see 2’ of snow on the ground here and a straight up arctic month that followed but it happened! Anything can happen still. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

 

No doubt... I imagine us reading about something like this in the distant past and thinking it can never happen again.   Well it just happened in real time.   We don't have to imagine what it was like.  

There’s a lot of off-the-cuff rhetoric about how 19th century/1950 type winters can’t happen today.

Lol, they absolutely 100% can happen today. Sure, it’s less likely (for a number of reasons beyond just global temps), but it can (and inevitably will) happen again when boundary conditions allow.

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

And people say big cold is a thing of the past.🤷‍♂️
Seriously, this is insane.

image.thumb.jpeg.fc1d02295a0f8228b853ad1b7104eb6e.jpeg

3 truly top tier fall blasts for the region since I've been here: 2009, 2014, and 2020.

Locally, Nov 2014 was probably just slightly more impressive, but 2020 takes the cake regionally.

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Low. Solar.

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

There’s a lot of off-the-cuff rhetoric about how 19th century/1950 type winters can’t happen today.

Lol, they absolutely 100% can happen today. Sure, it’s less likely (for a number of reasons beyond just global temps), but it can (and inevitably will) happen again when boundary conditions allow.

I agree Phil. The climate goes in cycles. It always has and always will. People who say what happened in the past can not happen again or in our lifetime are just being silly.

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

There’s a lot of off-the-cuff rhetoric about how 19th century/1950 type winters can’t happen today.

Lol, they absolutely 100% can happen today. Sure, it’s less likely (for a number of reasons beyond just global temps), but it can (and inevitably will) happen again when boundary conditions allow.

December 2008 but colder and snowier??

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33 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Warm across most of the country on the 12Z ECMWF at 240 hours...

 

ecmwf_T850a_namer_11.png

12Z EPS agrees with the ECMWF at day 10... 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-4664000.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

I agree Phil. The climate goes in cycles. It always has and always will. People who say what happened in the past can not happen again or in our lifetime are just being silly.

I agree with the general idea. But many cycles are much longer than a human lifetime.

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31 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

NOVEMBER 1985 @snow_wizard

snow3.jpg

1985 stretched further south. 2010/1985/1955 were my top 3 snowiest Novembers.

About the whole cascades stretch in OR/WA was getting nailed.

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 18.50" (52%)
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.10" (78%)
Mar '21 - 03.30" (132%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

There’s a lot of off-the-cuff rhetoric about how 19th century/1950 type winters can’t happen today.

Lol, they absolutely 100% can happen today. Sure, it’s less likely (for a number of reasons beyond just global temps), but it can (and inevitably will) happen again when boundary conditions allow.

Well there will be another ice age some day. But it's probably (99.9%) a fact that a winter like 1861-62 won't happen again in our lifetimes unless we have a few nuclear wars and VEI6 volcanic eruptions. Sucks.

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

Well there will be another ice age some day. But it's probably (99.9%) a fact that a winter like 1861-62 won't happen again in our lifetimes unless we have a few nuclear wars and VEI6 volcanic eruptions. Sucks.

Jim Carrey Chance GIF

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33 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

Well there will be another ice age some day. But it's probably (99.9%) a fact that a winter like 1861-62 won't happen again in our lifetimes unless we have a few nuclear wars and VEI6 volcanic eruptions. Sucks.

I think there’s a distinction to be made here. Of course it’s an extremely unlikely outcome, but that doesn’t mean the system is physically incapable of reproducing said outcome today. It absolutely *can* reproduce it, a number of ways. It’s just somewhat less likely now than it was 150 years ago (and even back then it was an anomaly).

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51 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

1985 stretched further south. 2010/1985/1955 were my top 3 snowiest Novembers.

About the whole cascades stretch in OR/WA was getting nailed.

Yep all the way down the Sierra as well in those years. My house had 60" by Thanksgiving day and a low temp of -8F on Thanksgiving morning 2010. 

We are currently off to the driest Sept/Oct ever recorded in California and it looks to continue until late Nov. 

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Wait.

I thought we wanted a warm and wet November as it would lead to a cold late December and January. Doesn't the history of snowy or cold bouts in November usually tell us the rest of the winter is blah at best?

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3 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Yep all the way down the Sierra as well in those years. My house had 60" by Thanksgiving day and a low temp of -8F on Thanksgiving morning 2010. 

We are currently off to the driest Sept/Oct ever recorded in California and it looks to continue until late Nov. 

I was coming here right after Thanksgiving 2010 and was thinking it's quite normal to have January like snowfall totals (and then some) in late-Fall. From 2011 to 2019 the most snow I've seen in Nov was 6.5" last year.

A CoCoRaHs station here says 12.5" in 2010 and that's with missing data. I combined some notes from my grandmother and that we had a 1 foot depth, came up to 17-20 inches. I settled for 17.0" to be on the safe side. The monthly average is only 4.0". Took me a while to realize how significant 2010 was.

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 18.50" (52%)
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.10" (78%)
Mar '21 - 03.30" (132%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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Just now, iFred said:

Wait.

I thought we wanted a warm and wet November as it would lead to a cold late December and January. Doesn't the history of snowy or cold bouts in November usually tell us the rest of the winter is blah at best?

Seemed like all of '10-'11 season was great for skiing after that Thanksgiving blast. 

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 18.50" (52%)
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.10" (78%)
Mar '21 - 03.30" (132%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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1 minute ago, iFred said:

Wait.

I thought we wanted a warm and wet November as it would lead to a cold late December and January. Doesn't the history of snowy or cold bouts in November usually tell us the rest of the winter is blah at best?

Well, any cold airmasses in November will greatly affect the GLAAM, WHAM, and MAWI. What that means for winter really depends on the ENSO and QBO.

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4 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Well, any cold airmasses in November will greatly affect the GLAAM, WHAM, and MAWI. What that means for winter really depends on the ENSO and QBO.

Just reminded me of that Maui Snow guy.

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27 minutes ago, iFred said:

Wait.

I thought we wanted a warm and wet November as it would lead to a cold late December and January. Doesn't the history of snowy or cold bouts in November usually tell us the rest of the winter is blah at best?

A very dry October/November regionally is historically a pretty bad sign. Some exceptions like 2013 and 1978 where the majority of the winter stayed blocky and we cashed in. That scenario seems less likely with stronger ENSO.

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2 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

My grandpa talks about November 1985 a lot. One of his favorite weather months. We will see where the models go usually when I think of November and La Niña it usually means a boring November but we will see. 

It was amazing for the 8yr old me! The one morning where school was late but still open I was heading to the end of the road to the bus stop...It started snowing a bit which was fun! Then it just started dumping down and the bus never did come...Most got stuck and they had to cancel school...Best day ever! 

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