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October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

PDX hit 38. Ultimately you win though, for making me waste 20 seconds of my life to clarify that ;)

I just looked at the 11am obs and the 6hr min. So they must have hit 38 prior to 5am. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Here's the snow thus far

By far the most impressive October storm I've witnessed here since 2012 when I bought property. Ended up with 9 inches of powder and is currently 22 degrees down from 24 at 9am. 

Just catching up to everything this morning. I think given that the user base of the forum has been somewhat of a close knit community for 15+ years, there is a bit of leeway given when it comes to be

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3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Twelvesy ensembles.

707C780D-8AA4-4455-BA08-08CF2D13DC1F.png.adbbd8e49aedf926c861b9d43d7897d5.png

Thank you Uncle Jessi

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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50 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Please don’t flatter him. Intelligence is the ability to make jargon like that accessible to the layman.

I dunno ever since Culver Josh said the exact same thing 50 times anytime someone said anything even remotely technical I'm not so sure.

Anyway it's surely not "intelligence" that does that. That's more communication. I work with some incredibly talented and intelligent engineers who are simply incapable of condensing their thoughts for, say, the marketing dept.

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Just now, Omegaraptor said:

B5E99E27-3CB6-4475-BCE9-96491C5475C8.png.bc0c45d6b926c36db8b991045ca76272.png

 

Long range ridging signal on Anchorage ensembles goes with long range cold on western US ensembles.

Thank you for sharing Raptor

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

I dunno ever since Culver Josh said the exact same thing 50 times anytime someone said anything even remotely technical I'm not so sure.

Well that’s a whole different level. 

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EUG Ensemble.png

Some members getting close to that 'Magic -8 Ball'.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 20 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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7 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Right, I guess I should have clarified that I was speaking about days 9+ which is still early November.

Makes you wonder how much of an effect the lack in Arctic sea ice is having this Fall. So far it appears to be keeping things more meridional than expected.

I don’t think it’s the sea ice. One recurring theme in recent years is a broad IPWP manipulating mass/momentum fluxes & RWB behavior, relatively increasing the deposition of westerly momentum in the tropics, which offers an easier dynamic conduit to -EPO and/or +TNH type patterns.

I’m sorry if that sounds like jargon.

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

EUG Ensemble.png

Some members getting close to that 'Magic -8 Ball'.

Prepare for disappointment.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, DJ Droppin said:

12z ECMWF Day 6

 

OMG are we really doing this?!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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6 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

I dunno ever since Culver Josh said the exact same thing 50 times anytime someone said anything even remotely technical I'm not so sure.

Anyway it's surely not "intelligence" that does that. That's more communication. I work with some incredibly talented and intelligent engineers who are simply incapable of condensing their thoughts for, say, the marketing dept.

Problem is I lack communication skills and intelligence. 😂

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Problem is I lack communication skills and intelligence. 😂

Don't we all? 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Well that’s a whole different level. 

*shrugs* is this forum for the layman though? Anytime someone shows up and asks layman questions (hey guys new here is it gonna snow???) or model rides based solely on the comments of the forum (SORRY K12) they get ignored or ripped on.

Phil might say some completely incomprehensible stuff every now and then but I guess it's surprising to me how often this provokes outrage considering he always does it and if someone asks what it means for the PNW he usually gives a response albeit itself also somewhat cryptic.

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All of the models depict the trough as being cut off from any real significant cold air source. Could be coolish, and likely some frosty days in its wake, but no reason to soil ourselves at this point. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

All of the models depict the trough as being cut off from any real significant cold air source. Could be coolish, and likely some frosty days in its wake, but no reason to soil ourselves at this point. 

Hoar frost or regular frost?

Asking for a friend.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Just now, Deweydog said:

Hoar frost or regular frost?

Asking for a friend.

** frost

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

All of the models depict the trough as being cut off from any real significant cold air source. Could be coolish, and likely some frosty days in its wake, but no reason to soil ourselves at this point. 

Plenty of Arctic air surging south on this run.

ecmwf_T850_namer_10.png

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Cold Season 2020/21:

Total snowfall: 22.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 12.0"

Highest snow depth: 14.0"

Coldest high: 9.0º

Coldest low: -5.1º

Number of subzero days: 2

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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27 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Here the last few days were

10/23: 44/39, 10/24: 49/31, 10/25: 45/27, 10/26: 45/31

which was significantly better than last year (although I don't have the data because weather station history crashed at the end of October 2019).

 

Did better than we did here. I’d be interested to see how your area fared in October 2019 I’m sure your location did quite well atleast maybe even better than October 2020. Either way it was a pretty good cold snap the last few days just didn’t produce good numbers here locally. 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-42

Freezes-1

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-10.14”

Snowfall-0.0”

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

All of the models depict the trough as being cut off from any real significant cold air source. Could be coolish, and likely some frosty days in its wake, but no reason to soil ourselves at this point. 

I HATE it when that happens. I really do. Seriously.

18z GFS in 2 hours 30 minutes

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Chilly run. Cold source is definitely there...

ecmwf_T850_nwus_11.png

 

 

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Cold Season 2020/21:

Total snowfall: 22.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 12.0"

Highest snow depth: 14.0"

Coldest high: 9.0º

Coldest low: -5.1º

Number of subzero days: 2

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Could be a decent little cold snap coming up but doesn’t look like a November 2017 redux. Hard to say though still 10 days out.  Had 1/2” of snow here with that event. Then a 40/34 day on 11/3...41/34 on 11/4 and 39/32 on 11/5. 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-42

Freezes-1

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-10.14”

Snowfall-0.0”

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1 minute ago, Kayla said:

Chilly run. Cold source is definitely there...

ecmwf_T850_nwus_11.png

 

 

Yup. I'm not complaining.... Still a bit premature for me to utter the [Colder Runs Ahead] mantra. Maybe by 00z runs Saturday.

00z ECMWF in 10 hours 39 minutes. Make your plans accordingly to be here for an amazing run!

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Looks like some frosty nights at least. Not a torch so there's that.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 20 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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31 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

*shrugs* is this forum for the layman though? Anytime someone shows up and asks layman questions (hey guys new here is it gonna snow???) or model rides based solely on the comments of the forum (SORRY K12) they get ignored or ripped on.

Phil might say some completely incomprehensible stuff every now and then but I guess it's surprising to me how often this provokes outrage considering he always does it and if someone asks what it means for the PNW he usually gives a response albeit itself also somewhat cryptic.

I certainly am not outraged by his technical posts. I just genuinely don’t know why he shares the advanced stuff when pretty much no one on here can follow it. I wonder if there is another website where he can truly nerd out with others that would understand? 

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54 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

*shrugs* is this forum for the layman though? Anytime someone shows up and asks layman questions (hey guys new here is it gonna snow???) or model rides based solely on the comments of the forum (SORRY K12) they get ignored or ripped on.

Phil might say some completely incomprehensible stuff every now and then but I guess it's surprising to me how often this provokes outrage considering he always does it and if someone asks what it means for the PNW he usually gives a response albeit itself also somewhat cryptic.

You make some decent points, Mr. Hutz. It probably has more to do with his history here than anything.

Its hard for me to buy that he is simply incapable of communicating his thoughts, though. Phil can be very lucid when he wants to be. Seems like it wouldn’t be too hard to say what he thinks what will happen with the pattern going forward and, since this is indeed a NW weather subforum, how it may affect us. It seems like he mainly does the acronym stuff because a) it’s a nice smokescreen to keep his predictions good and vague, and b) because, as has been mentioned, he of course craves attention and it’s a tried and proven way to quickly poke the hornet nest here. Seeing it from that standpoint it is perhaps more understandable why he tends to draw such an seemingly inordinate amount of ire for the acronymbics.

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I have been casually watching the open water issue on the Siberian Arctic coast, and it is just fascinating. I know there are people that will squeal something about a solar minimum or blue checkmark a 280 character climate change explanation but its the short term impact that is interesting. The open water isn't significantly above freezing and it seems repeated lows from the Urals just pump up more and more temperate air, which doesn't give it the time or calm needed for ice formation. Then down stream we just see dump after dump of snow on the ice that is already forming and into the Canadian shield, which then helps us build up colder air quicker than Siberia but also seems to allow for the lows traversing Russia to take in more energy. These stronger lows that dont go north then peter out over far east Russia, stalling with decen snows.

So now at this point, we have Siberia with snow cover, but warmer. A source of moisture, like the Great Lakes, dumping snow on the North American side of the Arctic. Additionally, we see cores of cold air repeatedly build over the Yukon Rockies before ejecting south.

This is already very different than what I can remember from a decade and a half of applying Kucheria ratios to everything.

Totally unscientific and probably a weather take you'd expect from someone that gets blocked by NWS mets and shares snow maps to the horror of the broader professional community.

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8 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

But the date was for late November 2006z after all the fun and games

11/26 and 11/27 was the main action at my place. I think we are possibly capable of some good stuff even if it’s the beginning of the month if given the correct setup. 

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5 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I think that warmth here is from downsloping off the Chuckanut Mountains to the south. I've seen it happen before in some southerly flow situations. KBLI recorded a high of 61°F on Jan 3rd of this year.

Yeah that wind was pretty weird last night, by the time it worked its way through all the valleys, nooks and crannies to get to my house it was more of a SE wind.  It caught a lot of people off guard, lots of recycling blowing down the street.

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5 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Yeah that wind was pretty weird last night, by the time it worked its way through all the valleys, nooks and crannies to get to my house it was more of a SE wind.  It caught a lot of people off guard, lots of recycling blowing down the street.

Those clouds have been ridiculously persistent up there while its been sunny down here since Saturday afternoon.    Totally different world up there.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

300 songs....wow... there is one song released in 1985 that is very relevant to this forum, I'm assuming its in this list of 300

 

 

A don’t think we see a repeat until the current woke generation can manage to get a bunch of middle aged men to sit around and put on makeup together.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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