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October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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It's truly remarkable how all of the models show the pattern unfolding in exactly the same way next week.  They have obviously picked up on something pretty major.  In case you are wondering there has never been a season that I'm aware of that had two significant cold snaps in the October 20 to November 10 time frame.  It will be truly exceptional if it happens.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Here's the snow thus far

By far the most impressive October storm I've witnessed here since 2012 when I bought property. Ended up with 9 inches of powder and is currently 22 degrees down from 24 at 9am. 

Sorry guys I ended up getting chased around the outside of the building at work by a whacked out homeless guy on drugs...That was a first! I was mostly worried about the snot coming out of his nose as

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6 hours ago, Jesse said:

You make some decent points, Mr. Hutz. It probably has more to do with his history here than anything.

Its hard for me to buy that he is simply incapable of communicating his thoughts, though. Phil can be very lucid when he wants to be. Seems like it wouldn’t be too hard to say what he thinks what will happen with the pattern going forward and, since this is indeed a NW weather subforum, how it may affect us. It seems like he mainly does the acronym stuff because a) it’s a nice smokescreen to keep his predictions good and vague, and b) because, as has been mentioned, he of course craves attention and it’s a tried and proven way to quickly poke the hornet nest here. Seeing it from that standpoint it is perhaps more understandable why he tends to draw such an seemingly inordinate amount of ire for the acronymbics.

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2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Phil was advertising a blocky winter. Looking a lot like 1985 so far.

Didn’t think it’d start this soon though. Might be best not to listen to me.

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13 minutes ago, Phil said:

Didn’t think it’d start this soon though. Might be best not to listen to me.

Do you have any reason to expect this blocking to last this winter? I'm assuming it's just season-transitional noise right now but you know more on the subject than I do.

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I liken Phil to a sports-betting sharp. He is pretty decent at the long term stuff.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 47 (Most recent: Apr 9, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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40 minutes ago, Phil said:

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I don't know man.. I think Jesse kinda has a point, You clearly are smart but you don't ever try to explain in ways people can understand. I'm not sure if that's because you don't want to, or just don't care to but you can't expect 99 percent of people to fully understand what you are grasping at with your fancy words etc.

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

It's truly remarkable how all of the models show the pattern unfolding in exactly the same way next week.  They have obviously picked up on something pretty major.  In case you are wondering there has never been a season that I'm aware of that had two significant cold snaps in the October 20 to November 10 time frame.  It will be truly exceptional if it happens.

 

1919?

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Some spicy wind gusts near New Orleans from Zeta. The 114 looks a little suspect, but the 104 and 101 seem legit and it looks like the highest gust in the city was 97.

1902425363_ScreenShot2020-10-28at7_28_57PM.thumb.png.c37669846f3b9a639cec28ff712aecbc.png

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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21 minutes ago, Weather1011 said:

I don't know man.. I think Jesse kinda has a point, You clearly are smart but you don't ever try to explain in ways people can understand. I'm not sure if that's because you don't want to, or just don't care to but you can't expect 99 percent of people to fully understand what you are grasping at with your fancy words etc.

I appreciate the feedback. Had a 15 minute break between online classes, and sort of let my consciousness spill out earlier today. Those other theories are amusing though not accurate in this case. But whatever.  

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46 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Do you have any reason to expect this blocking to last this winter? I'm assuming it's just season-transitional noise right now but you know more on the subject than I do.

The low levels of solar activity increase the odds of NH blockiness persisting.

Last winter does not disprove that, for those that love to point that out but then ignore late winter 2019 and fall 2019. 🙂

Along with some pretty impressive blocking patterns already this fall.

Low. Solar.

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11 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

1919?

I figured if anyone knew of one it would be you.  Very interesting to say the least!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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14 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

1919?

Oh my god.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

The low levels of solar activity increase the odds of NH blockiness persisting.

Last winter does not disprove that, for those that love to point that out but then ignore late winter 2019 and fall 2019. 🙂

Along with some pretty impressive blocking patterns already this fall.

If the block being advertised materializes that will be 3 mega blocks already this season (the first one being September).  Way different than anything seen in the modern era.  Solar is certainly the number one suspect.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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I was impressed with the low level push of cold air with this past weeks “blast.” Offshore winds gusted to about 30mph at the weather station near our place. Pretty impressive for offshore flow here. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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45 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I liken Phil to a sports-betting sharp. He is pretty decent at the long term stuff.

No doubt he is. Which is one reason it would be nice to be able to understand him better.

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This cold snap being advertised looks very much like the last one except the placement of the block is a bit more favorable for delivering cold to the Western Lowlands.  Another Fraser River event!  The way the models are all handling the details so similarly gives me slightly higher than average confidence it will happen.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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39 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

If the block being advertised materializes that will be 3 mega blocks already this season (the first one being September).  Way different than anything seen in the modern era.  Solar is certainly the number one suspect.

But Jim, we need Omega Blocks!!!! Not mega!!!!

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37 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This cold snap being advertised looks very much like the last one except the placement of the block is a bit more favorable for delivering cold to the Western Lowlands.  Another Fraser River event!  The way the models are all handling the details so similarly gives me slightly higher than average confidence it will happen.

This within ten days?

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8 hours ago, Deweydog said:

A don’t think we see a repeat until the current woke generation can manage to get a bunch of middle aged men to sit around and put on makeup together.

I have had this song stuck in my D**n head all day.  I know, I only have myself to blame for it...

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Solid chilly shot appears to be what we are looking at. Hopefully some good freezes at night.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 47 (Most recent: Apr 9, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 10 Here we go. We want to see this at Day 3 though, not Day 10. C'MON!!!!

500h_anom.na.png

 

 

Tiger_Celebrates.gif

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 47 (Most recent: Apr 9, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

24

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