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October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looking at the seasonal long term models, it looks like we stay more or less above average through December. Then a signal begins emerging for a cooler than average January, and a very strong signal for below average temperatures February-April. Which makes sense for a moderate Nina. 

All for it if we have a February 2019 redux! 
Or a January 1950...That would work as well I guess. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looking at the seasonal long term models, it looks like we stay more or less above average through December. Then a signal begins emerging for a cooler than average January, and a very strong signal for below average temperatures February-April. Which makes sense for a moderate Nina. 

That seems about right. So basically it is a textbook Nina.

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Beautiful October day...

20201005_133340.jpg

I see colors :P

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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CFS going nuts with the Nina.  All recent runs have a strong Nina, and 4-6 have a Super Nina.  Probably won't be that strong, but that is insane.

On another note, despite the pattern shown on the seasonal Euro, it still shows warmer than normal temps for every month except February, where it shows normal.  Even has January way above normal.  I think the pattern shown is more important than what the temps showed.  And it is a very strong signal for a seasonal map.

image.png

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At least the mountains should get slammed. I want to do some snowshoeing if I can get up to the Cascades.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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The models are beginning to look decidedly crisp as we move forward.  The ECMWF is really liking the idea of some fairly cold GOA blocking in the 5 to 10 day period.  The 12z looks highly capable of bringing the first frost for some areas.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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24 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

65/53 currently 63*

What a gorgeous afternoon!  Kept thinking Randy must be putting his Christmas lights up on such a fine day 

11/14/20...Unless it’s raining/snowing/icing, or I have COVID. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 hour ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

CFS going nuts with the Nina.  All recent runs have a strong Nina, and 4-6 have a Super Nina.  Probably won't be that strong, but that is insane.

On another note, despite the pattern shown on the seasonal Euro, it still shows warmer than normal temps for every month except February, where it shows normal.  Even has January way above normal.  I think the pattern shown is more important than what the temps showed.  And it is a very strong signal for a seasonal map.

image.png

I have no idea how 500mb anoms like that would bring warm weather for us.  Very suspect.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Now, we've seen Super Ninos but a Super Nina? Have we had one before? 🤪

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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79/31 today. Smoke a tiny bit thicker while posting now. But doable air quality.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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8 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

And I am not seeing the maps directly from the ECMWF.  Perhaps it is the way that the computers at weather.us interprets the maps.

#EuroGate

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

CFS going nuts with the Nina.  All recent runs have a strong Nina, and 4-6 have a Super Nina.  Probably won't be that strong, but that is insane.

On another note, despite the pattern shown on the seasonal Euro, it still shows warmer than normal temps for every month except February, where it shows normal.  Even has January way above normal.  I think the pattern shown is more important than what the temps showed.  And it is a very strong signal for a seasonal map.

image.png

That January pattern looks active and probably wet. Perhaps stormy even.  Not really a cold pattern. 

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2 hours ago, iFred said:

In July, all of the seasonal forecasts were pointing a picture with a strong SE ridge, little to no blocking in Greenland, and a strong ridge the Northern Pacific that drifts east by March. On one hand, this looks like default Nina, on the other, these are some serious looking patterns. FWIW, it seams that both the CANSIPS and Euro monthlies have been halfway decent with the broad strokes. So maybe there is something to this.

I’m sure someone will douse water on this emerging enthusiasm and explain how strong Ninas are only good for east of the Cascades and we’ll probably just have 50° and rain.

I would rather have a weak Nina. Around here they tend to be colder with more consistent snowcover. Strong events are all over the place. 

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2 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

CFS going nuts with the Nina.  All recent runs have a strong Nina, and 4-6 have a Super Nina.  Probably won't be that strong, but that is insane.

On another note, despite the pattern shown on the seasonal Euro, it still shows warmer than normal temps for every month except February, where it shows normal.  Even has January way above normal.  I think the pattern shown is more important than what the temps showed.  And it is a very strong signal for a seasonal map.

image.png

The CFS seems to focus on the moment. If it continues strengthening at this rate, then it will end up super strong. It was like that with the 2010 event. When strengthening stops for a little bit, it will move away from predicting a strong event or maybe not. In some respects this event is similar to 2007, but the QBO is different. The peak could very well end up like 2007. I'm just guessing here. Any experts want to weigh in?

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As I just posted in the BC forum, regarding the coming winter: I’m thinking lots of cold rain in the lowlands and heavy snows in the mountains. There will be some lowland snow, but not an astounding amount, more like a typical amount. In other words, I’m playing the odds based on what strong La Niña years tend to be like. Skiers should be happy this winter.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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